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Garden State Race is All Tied Up

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009

Monmouth U/Gannett NJ poll finds weakening support for Christie


There’s just two weeks to go, and the race for New Jersey couldn’t be any tighter.  The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds incumbent Jon Corzine and challenger Chris Christie in a dead heat – each candidate now garners the support of 39% of likely voters in the Garden State.  Another 14% say they will vote for independent candidate Chris Daggett.  Earlier this month, Christie held a narrow 3 point lead over Corzine – 43% to 40% – with 8% for Daggett.

A key dynamic in this race is the migration of independent voters from both major party candidates to Chris Daggett.  Currently, 45% of independent voters support Christie, 21% support Corzine and 22% support Daggett.  Before the first gubernatorial debate three weeks ago, Christie claimed nearly half (49%) of the independent vote and Corzine had 28%, while only 11% favored Daggett.

There are also some warning signs in the Republican base.  Chris Christie has the support of 81% of his fellow partisans, but this is down from 86% in the October 1st poll.  Another 8% of GOP voters now give their support to Daggett, up from 3% earlier this month.  At the same time, Jon Corzine has held onto his partisan base, currently garnering 76% of Democratic voters.  The 11% of Democrats who now support Daggett is up slightly from the 8% he got earlier this month.  Currently, 8% of Democrats say they will vote for Republican Christie, but this is down from 17% in August.

“Democrats who flirted with Chris Christie earlier in the year have come back into the fold.  It also looks like some GOP voters may have become disenchanted with their white knight.  That’s not a good sign for the Republican at this late stage of the game,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

  Candidate Support by Party

Likely Voters

Mid Oct 09

Early Oct 09

Sept 09

Aug 09

July 09

Democrats

Corzine

76%

75%

77%

74%

71%

Christie

8%

8%

10%

17%

15%

Daggett

11%

8%

6%

2%

3%

Other

0%

0%

1%

2%

0%

Undecided

5%

9%

6%

5%

11%

Republicans

Corzine

6%

7%

7%

9%

9%

Christie

81%

86%

83%

87%

83%

Daggett

8%

3%

5%

2%

3%

Other

1%

0%

1%

0%

0%

Undecided

4%

3%

4%

2%

6%

Independents

Corzine

21%

28%

30%

24%

26%

Christie

45%

49%

53%

56%

47%

Daggett

22%

11%

4%

7%

7%

Other

2%

2%

2%

4%

1%

Undecided

10%

10%

11%

9%

18%

The poll also found further erosion in the Republican candidate’s personal ratings.  Voter opinion of Chris Christie now stands at 40% favorable to 41% unfavorable among likely voters, the first time in this poll that negative views of the GOP nominee have numerically outnumbered positive views.  In July, Christie held a broadly positive 50%-26% rating among likely voters.  The Democrat, Jon Corzine, has an upside down 37% favorable to 51% unfavorable rating, which has been pretty steady among likely voters since July.  And despite making a splash in the first candidate’s debate, independent Chris Daggett has a 28% favorable to 15% unfavorable rating, with more than half (56%) of all likely voters saying they don’t know enough to form an opinion about him.

“Daggett may have hit his ceiling in this race.  Lacking both ground troops and the financial resources necessary to keep his message in front of voters over the final two weeks, it’ll be difficult for him to overcome most voters’ inclination to go with one of the two major party candidates,” said Murray.

Daggett’s rise in the poll came on the heels of unveiling his property tax proposal.  However, only 16% of voters say they have heard about his plan, compared to 19% of voters who say they have heard some property tax plan from Chris Christie and 16% who have heard a plan from Jon Corzine.

When voters are asked to choose who will do a better job on property taxes, just 16% name Daggett.  Christie is preferred by 36%, and 30% choose Corzine.

Christie also gets the nod on handling corruption, 39% to 26% for Corzine and 14% for Daggett.  Voters are divided, though, on who would best deal with economic issues and state spending.  On the economy and jobs, Christie is preferred by 35%, Corzine by 34%, and Daggett by 13%.  On the state budget, Corzine is preferred by 35%, Christie by 34%, and Daggett by 13%.   Governor Corzine is the clear favorite on education, preferred by 41% of voters on this issue compared to 29% for Christie and 11% for Daggett.

And in case you were wondering, property taxes continues to be the issue that voters want addressed in this ever-shortening campaign.  More than half (54%) name it as one of their top two concerns, followed by the economy and jobs (33%), health care (22%), other taxes (21%), state spending (13%), education (11%), and corruption (7%).

Regardless of who is elected governor next month, very few voters have a clear idea what he will do to address these issues.  While about 6-in-10 voters say they have some notion what a Corzine second term or a Christie first term will look like, just 32% feel they have a clear idea what the Democratic incumbent will do over the next four years and only 18% say the same about the Republican challenger.  Only 4-in-10 have some idea what a Chris Daggett administration would do, with just 13% saying they have a clear idea.

An overwhelming 72% of likely voters say the New Jersey governor’s race has been largely negative.  Only 19% would characterize it as positive.  Among those who see the race as negative 36% say Corzine is the bigger transgressor compared to just 12% who say Christie has been more negative.  However, most voters (51%) feel that the two major party candidates have been equally negative in this race.

– Green Acres Bond –

Voters going to the polls on November 3rd will also be asked to approve a $400 million bond measure to fund Green Acres, water supply and floodplain protection, farmland and historic preservation projects, as well as park improvements. Currently, 55% of likely voters indicate they will support the bond, while 32% will vote against and 12% are undecided.  The bond measure garners support from 68% of Democrats, 50% of independents, and 40% of Republicans.

“Past polling on public questions suggests that most undecided voters will fall into the ‘no’ camp on election day.  Still, with 55% approval two weeks before the election, opponents of this borrowing measure have their work cut out for them,” said Murray.

– President Obama –

President Barack Obama’s job rating stands at 53% approve to 39% disapprove among likely voters in New Jersey.  Among those still undecided in the governor’s race, he garners a net positive 44% approve to 35% disapprove.  With the President scheduled to campaign on behalf of Governor Corzine on Wednesday, 12% of voters say such a visit would make them more likely to vote for Corzine, 14% say it would make them less likely, and 73% say a presidential appearance would have no effect on their vote for governor.  Among undecided voters, 5% say a presidential visit would make them more likely to vote for Corzine, but 14% say it would make them less likely.

– Lieutenant Governor –

Despite their moment in the spotlight at the first ever New Jersey Lieutenant Governor’s debate on October 8th, few voters have any impression of the three leading candidates for that post.  Democrat Loretta Weinberg stands at 11% favorable to 9% unfavorable, Republican Kim Guadagno’s ratings are 9% favorable to 4% unfavorable, and independent Frank Esposito has 6% favorable to 4% unfavorable ratings.  The vast majority of voters have no opinion – 80% for Weinberg, 87% for Guadagno, and 90% for Esposito.  These numbers have remained virtually unchanged since the running mates were announced in July.

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted by telephone with 1,004 New Jersey likely voters from October 15 to 18, 2009.  This sample has a margin of error of ± 3.1 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the Gannett New Jersey newspaper group (Asbury Park Press, Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune).

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows: 

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

  1. If the election for governor was held today, would you vote for Jon Corzine the Democrat, Chris Christie the Republican, Chris Daggett the independent, or some other candidate?  [If undecided: At this moment do you lean more towards Corzine or more towards Christie?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID GENDER RACE AGE

REGION

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female White Black &
Hispanic
18-34 35-54 55+ North Central

South

Corzine 39% 76% 21% 6% 34% 43% 32% 66% 45% 39% 36% 40% 36% 39%
Christie 39% 8% 45% 81% 40% 39% 45% 17% 32% 40% 42% 38% 42% 39%
Daggett 14% 11% 22% 8% 18% 11% 15% 9% 15% 14% 13% 13% 16% 14%
Other candidate 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 2% 0% 1%
(VOL) Don’t know 7% 5% 10% 4% 6% 7% 6% 8% 7% 5% 9% 7% 6% 6%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 479 525 865 93 99 462 437 446 277

272

 

TREND:
Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009
Sept.
2009
Aug.
2009

July
2009

Corzine 39% 40% 39% 36% 37%
Christie 39% 43% 47% 50% 45%
Daggett 14% 8% 5% 4% 4%
Other candidate 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
(VOL) Don’t know   7% 8% 7% 8% 13%
Unwtd N  

1004

527 531 484

527

Composite Table: Strength of Vote Choice

If the election for governor was held today, would you vote for [ROTATE]: Jon Corzine the Democrat, Chris Christie the Republican, Chris Daggett the independent, or some other candidate? [If undecided: At this moment do you lean more towards Corzine or more towards Christie?]  [If answered Corzine or Christie to Q1: Are you very sure about voting for [NAME]; or might you change your mind before Election Day?]

TREND: Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009
Sept.
2009
Aug.
2009

July
2009

Sure Corzine 31% 31% 26% 24% 25%
Weak Corzine 5% 6% 10% 7% 8%
Lean Corzine 3% 3% 3% 5% 4%
Undecided-Other 22% 17% 13% 14% 18%
Lean Christie 5% 5% 3% 8% 8%
Weak Christie 5% 6% 10% 11% 8%
Sure Christie 29% 32% 34% 31% 29%
Unwtd N

1004

527 531 484

527

  1. Please tell me if your general impression of the following candidates is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t have an opinion. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

 

Jon Corzine

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Favorable 37% 70% 21% 11% 87% 3% 14% 18%
Unfavorable 51% 17% 65% 83% 5% 93% 72% 45%
No opinion/
Don’t recognize
12% 13% 14% 6% 7% 4% 13% 37%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND:
Likely 
voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009
Sept.
2009
Aug.
2009

July
2009

Favorable 37% 40% 37% 37% 41%
Unfavorable 51% 49% 53% 53% 50%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 12% 10% 10% 10% 9%
Unwtd N  

1004

527 531 484

527

Chris Christie

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Favorable 40% 11% 45% 78% 5% 91% 21% 27%
Unfavorable 41% 66% 35% 13% 75% 4% 62% 25%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 19% 23% 21% 9% 20% 5% 17% 49%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND:
Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009
Sept.
2009
Aug.
2009

July
2009

Favorable 40% 41% 48% 49% 50%
Unfavorable 41% 39% 30% 33% 26%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 19% 19% 22% 18% 24%
Unwtd N  

1004

527 531 484

527

Chris Daggett

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Favorable 28% 22% 35% 29% 12% 23% 87% 24%
Unfavorable 15% 15% 13% 15% 18% 20% 0% 8%
No opinion/
Don’t recognize
56% 63% 51% 56% 70% 57% 13% 67%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

 

TREND:
Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009
Sept.
2009
Aug.
2009

July
2009

Favorable 28% 17% 11% 11% 7%
Unfavorable 15% 8% 6% 9% 10%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 56% 75% 83% 80% 82%
Unwtd N  

1004

527 531 484

527

  1. In your opinion, what are the most important one or two issues that the candidates for governor should talk about? [Note: Results add to more than 100% because multiple responses were accepted]

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Property taxes 54% 47% 59% 56% 44% 59% 66% 59%
Income tax 5% 3% 5% 8% 2% 8% 7% 5%
Sales tax 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% 2%
Other tax, general taxes 14% 10% 12% 22% 9% 22% 12% 13%
Jobs 17% 20% 13% 16% 21% 14% 15% 15%
Cost of living/
affordability
2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 1% 1%
The economy/downturn
in general
16% 18% 15% 13% 20% 12% 16% 12%
Development/building
boom
0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Roads/traffic/congestion 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0%
Health care/prescription
drug costs
22% 31% 18% 14% 30% 12% 25% 23%
Environment 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 2%
Same-sex/Gay marriage 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2%
Immigration 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%
Corruption/government
ethics
7% 4% 11% 8% 4% 11% 4% 8%
Education/schools 11% 15% 10% 7% 16% 8% 11% 5%
State Budget/Govt
spending
13% 8% 16% 15% 10% 16% 12% 11%
Crime, safety, police 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2%
Energy/fuel/gas prices 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%
Abortion 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 1% 1%
Other 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 1% 4% 1%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% 3% 6%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND:
Likely  
voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009
Sept.
2009
Aug.
2009

July
2009

Property taxes 54% 48% 50% 47% 49%
Income tax 5% 4% 8% 7% 8%
Sales tax 2% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Other tax, general taxes 14% 13% 8% 7% 6%
Jobs 17% 22% 15% 16% 17%
Cost of living/affordability 2% 3% 2% 2% 5%
The economy/downturn
in general
16% 14% 21% 22% 21%
Development/building
boom
0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Roads/traffic/congestion 1% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Health care/prescription
drug costs
22% 16% 16% 14% 17%
Environment 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Same-sex/Gay marriage 1% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Immigration 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Corruption/government
ethics
7% 8% 9% 17% 5%
Education/schools 11% 16% 19% 9% 12%
State Budget/Govt
spending
13% 12% 11% 14% 20%
Crime, safety, police 2% 2% 2% 3% 1%
Energy/fuel/gas prices 0% 1%

n/a

1% 1%
Abortion 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Other 3% 3% 4% 2% 3%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 2% 5% 1%
Unwtd N

1004

527 531 484

527

[QUESTIONS 4 THROUGH 6 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Has Jon Corzine given you a clear idea, some idea, not much of an idea, or no idea at all about what he would do in his second term as governor?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Clear idea 32% 38% 28% 27% 43% 31% 25% 15%
Some idea 33% 41% 31% 26% 45% 18% 35% 37%
Not much of an idea 16% 13% 15% 21% 8% 20% 20% 24%
No idea at all 16% 6% 22% 23% 4% 28% 18% 16%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 3% 2% 8%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND: Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Sept.
2009

July
2009

Clear idea 32% 25% 32%
Some idea 33% 33% 35%
Not much of an idea 16% 16% 12%
No idea at all 16% 22% 16%
(VOL) Don’t know   3% 3% 5%
Unwtd N  

1004

531

527

  1. Has Chris Christie given you a clear idea, some idea, not much of an idea, or no idea at all about what he would as governor?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Clear idea 18% 13% 19% 27% 11% 33% 15% 6%
Some idea 41% 27% 47% 55% 28% 57% 35% 36%
Not much of an idea 22% 31% 20% 12% 34% 8% 24% 27%
No idea at all 15% 25% 12% 4% 25% 1% 22% 18%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 4% 12%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND: Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Sept.
2009

July
2009

Clear idea 18% 16% 16%
Some idea 41% 42% 49%
Not much of an idea 22% 20% 16%
No idea at all 15% 18% 15%
(VOL) Don’t know   3% 3% 5%
Unwtd N  

1004

531

527

  1. Has Chris Daggett given you a clear idea, some idea, not much of an idea, or no idea at all about what he would do in his second term as governor?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Clear idea 13% 8% 18% 14% 7% 15% 34% 6%
Some idea 28% 25% 32% 26% 20% 28% 50% 26%
Not much of an idea 22% 23% 20% 24% 25% 23% 10% 21%
No idea at all 28% 37% 22% 22% 40% 23% 4% 35%
(VOL) Don’t know 9% 6% 8% 14% 8% 12% 3% 13%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

  1. Regardless of who you may support for governor… Who would do a better job on [READ ITEM] –Corzine, Christie or Daggett? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

The economy and jobs

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Corzine better 34% 65% 19% 8% 83% 2% 8% 14%
Christie better 35% 7% 40% 72% 2% 86% 7% 25%
Daggett better 13% 9% 20% 9% 1% 4% 71% 6%
(VOL) All equally 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 4%
(VOL) None of them 6% 6% 7% 3% 6% 2% 5% 12%
(VOL) Don’t know 11% 11% 13% 8% 6% 6% 9% 39%
Unwtd N 1004 369 345 271 347 367 141 132

Property taxes

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Corzine better 30% 58% 14% 8% 74% 2% 3% 13%
Christie better 36% 10% 42% 68% 6% 83% 8% 28%
Daggett better 16% 12% 25% 12% 3% 6% 79% 13%
(VOL) All equally 2% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 3%
(VOL) None of them 6% 6% 7% 5% 7% 4% 2% 11%
(VOL) Don’t know 10% 11% 10% 7% 9% 4% 8% 33%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

The state budget

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Corzine better 35% 66% 20% 7% 85% 2% 4% 16%
Christie better 34% 7% 40% 69% 1% 86% 11% 17%
Daggett better 13% 10% 21% 9% 3% 3% 72% 9%
(VOL) All equally 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 4%
(VOL) None of them 6% 4% 7% 5% 4% 3% 6% 9%
(VOL) Don’t know 11% 12% 11% 9% 7% 5% 5% 45%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

Education

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Corzine better 41% 75% 26% 12% 90% 5% 19% 30%
Christie better 29% 5% 31% 63% 1% 74% 5% 14%
Daggett better 11% 7% 18% 6% 1% 5% 56% 6%
(VOL) All equally 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 8%
(VOL) None of them 4% 2% 7% 4% 2% 3% 4% 8%
(VOL) Don’t know 13% 9% 16% 12% 5% 12% 15% 34%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

Reducing corruption

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Corzine better 26% 51% 14% 6% 67% 1% 4% 10%
Christie better 39% 11% 45% 73% 5% 86% 22% 27%
Daggett better 14% 12% 19% 9% 5% 4% 63% 10%
(VOL) All equally 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3%
(VOL) None of them 9% 10% 10% 5% 11% 5% 5% 11%
(VOL) Don’t know 11% 14% 10% 7% 10% 3% 6% 38%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

  1. Have you heard of specific plans from any of the candidates for governor about how they would reduce property taxes, or not?  Whose plan have you heard about? [Note: Results add to more than 100% because multiple responses were accepted]

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Corzine’s plan 16% 19% 18% 11% 22% 14% 14% 9%
Christie’s plan 19% 12% 25% 24% 14% 30% 14% 12%
Dagget’s plan 16% 11% 22% 15% 9% 15% 37% 14%
No one’s 68% 75% 60% 68% 73% 63% 59% 80%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND:
Likely 
voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009

Corzine’s plan 16% 12%
Christie’s plan 19% 16%
Dagget’s plan 16% 1%
No one’s   68% 80%
Unwtd N  

1004

527

  1. So far, would you characterize the governor’s race as being generally positive or negative?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Positive 19% 32% 11% 12% 31% 13% 4% 22%
Negative 72% 58% 82% 77% 58% 80% 89% 66%
(VOL) Both 4% 6% 2% 5% 7% 3% 2% 4%
(VOL) Neither 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 7%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND:
Likely 
voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Sept.
2009

Positive 19% 30%
Negative 72% 62%
(VOL) Both 4% 4%
(VOL) Neither 1% 2%
(VOL) Don’t know   3% 3%
Unwtd N  

1004

531

[The following question was asked only of those who said “Negative” or “Both” to Q9, moe= ± 3.5%]

  1. Who has been more negative – Corzine or Christie, or both equally?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Corzine 36% 12% 42% 58% 6% 68% 29% 22%
Christie 12% 22% 8% 4% 30% 1% 8% 5%
Both equally 51% 64% 50% 38% 61% 31% 63% 72%
(VOL) Don’t know 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1%
Unwtd N

796

264 291 223 243 311 130

98

TREND:
Likely 
voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Sept.
2009

Corzine 36% 35%
Christie 12% 12%
Both equally 51% 52%
(VOL) Don’t know 1% 1%
Unwtd N  

796

361

  1. I’m going to name the lieutenant governor candidates.  Please tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion.  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

Loretta Weinberg

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Favorable 11% 17% 9% 6% 20% 6% 11% 5%
Unfavorable 9% 4% 11% 13% 3% 15% 8% 7%
No opinion/
Don’t recognize
80% 80% 80% 80% 77% 79% 81% 89%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND:
Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009
Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Favorable 11% 11% 9% 16%
Unfavorable 9% 7% 11% 9%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 80% 82% 80% 76%
Unwtd N  

1004

527 531

484

Kim Guadagno

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Favorable 9% 4% 10% 14% 5% 17% 4% 4%
Unfavorable 4% 7% 3% 1% 7% 1% 7% 3%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 87% 90% 86% 85% 88% 82% 89% 94%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND: Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009
Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Favorable 9% 9% 8% 10%
Unfavorable 4% 3% 4% 2%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 87% 88% 89% 88%
Unwtd N  

1004

527 531

484

Frank Esposito

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Favorable 6% 6% 5% 6% 8% 5% 5% 2%
Unfavorable 4% 3% 5% 3% 3% 3% 6% 3%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 90% 91% 90% 91% 89% 92% 89% 94%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND: Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009
Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Favorable 6% 5% 5% 8%
Unfavorable 4% 2% 3% 2%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 90% 93% 91% 90%
Unwtd N  

1004

527 531 484
  1. In addition to the race for governor, there will also be a public question on the ballot. This measure would authorize the state to issue 400 million dollars in bonds to fund Green Acres, water supply and floodplain protection, and farmland and historic preservation projects.  It will also fund park improvements and facilities.  Will you vote for or against this bond measure?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

For 55% 68% 50% 40% 70% 34% 63% 61%
Against 32% 19% 37% 46% 18% 51% 26% 22%
(VOL) Won’t vote either way 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 3% 0% 0%
(VOL) Don’t know 12% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 17%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

Approve 53% 87% 42% 15% 87% 16% 59% 44%
Disapprove 39% 7% 47% 78% 7% 76% 34% 35%
(VOL) Don’t know 9% 6% 11% 8% 6% 7% 7% 21%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND: Likely voters

Mid
Oct
2009

Early
Oct
2009

July
2009

Approve 53% 52% 56%
Disapprove 39% 39% 34%
(VOL) Don’t know 9% 9% 10%
Unwtd N  

1004

527

527

  1. If President Obama came to New Jersey to campaign for Jon Corzine, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for Corzine, or would it have no effect either way?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie Daggett

Undecided

More likely 12% 25% 5% 1% 27% 2% 4% 5%
Less likely 14% 3% 18% 28% 1% 30% 10% 14%
No effect 73% 71% 77% 70% 71% 68% 86% 78%
(VOL) Don’t know 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3%
Unwtd N

1004

369 345 271 347 367 141

132

TREND:
Likely 
voters
Mid
Oct
2009
July
2009*
More likely 12% 13%
Less likely 14% 17%
No effect 73% 69%
(VOL) Don’t know 1% 1%
Unwtd N  

1004

527

* July 09 wording was “If President Obama actively campaigns for Jon Corzine, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for Corzine, or would it have no effect either way?”

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted and analyzed by the Monmouth University Polling Institute research staff.  The telephone interviews were collected on October 15-18, 2009 with a statewide random sample of 1,004 likely voters. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS

Likely Voter Sample (weighted)

40% Dem 48% Male 18% 18-34

77% White

34% Ind 52% Female 47% 35-54

  9% Black

26% Rep   35% 55+

  9% Hispanic

     

  5% Asian/Other

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables