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Monmouth University Polling Institute

Nevada

Trump Overtakes Clinton

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Heck holds onto narrow lead in Senate race

West Long Branch, NJ  - The race for Nevada's electoral votes has flipped from two months ago, with Donald Trump now holding a slim 2 point lead over Hillary Clinton, whereas Clinton held a 4 point lead in July's Monmouth University Poll .  In the U.S. Senate contest, Republican Joe Heck clings to a narrow 3 point lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, virtually unchanged from his earlier 2 point lead.

Among Silver State voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 44% currently support Trump and 42% back Clinton.  Another 8% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3% say they will choose Nevada's unique "none of these candidates" ballot option.  Monmouth's July poll found Clinton leading Trump by 45% to 41%, with Johnson at 5% and none of the above at 4%.  Green Party candidate Jill Stein will not appear on the ballot in Nevada.

Among self-identified Republicans, 88% support Trump, which is identical to his 88% support in July.  Among Democrats, 90% support Clinton, which is similar to her 92% support in July.  Independents have shifted, however, now giving Trump a clear 43% to 29% advantage over Clinton, with 17% supporting Johnson.  Two months ago, the independent vote was divided at 39% for Trump, 37% for Clinton, and 10% for Johnson.

"The race in Nevada is still tight, but the momentum has swung toward Trump," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Clinton still has a sizable lead among non-white voters - 63% to 28% for Trump, which is down slightly from her 64% to 23% lead among this group in July.  The Republican nominee retains his lead among white voters, now standing at 51% to 33%, which is up slightly from 49% to 37% two months ago.

Clinton's lead among women voters is also a bit narrower than in Monmouth's prior poll, currently at 50% to 40% compared with 53% to 38% in July.  Trump has a 48% to 34% edge among men, which is slightly better than his 44% to 37% lead among male voters two months ago.

"These demographic shifts are within the margin of error for these demographic groups, but they suggest that Trump has had a little more success solidifying his base in Nevada than Clinton has," said Murray.

Interestingly, Trump has pulled ahead of Clinton in the horse race even while his favorable ratings have declined.  Only 30% of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Trump while 55% hold an unfavorable view of him, which is down from 35% favorable and 53% unfavorable in July.  Opinion of Clinton, on the other hand, has held steady.  She currently gets a 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating, which is identical to her 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating from two months ago.

Turning to the U.S. Senate race, Rep. Joe Heck currently has the backing of 46% of likely voters while former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto has 43% support.  Tom Jones of the Independent American Party has 4% and "none of these candidates" has 3%, with another 4% undecided.  Heck held a similar 42% to 40% lead in July, with Jones then at 5% and none of the above at 6%.

More than 8-in-10 Republicans (84%) back Heck, similar to his 81% partisan support in July.  Cortez Masto gets the backing of 86% of Democrats, which is similar to her 83% support two months ago.  Heck maintains the advantage among independents, now leading Cortez Masto by 49% to 33%, with 10% for Jones.  Two months ago, independents preferred Heck by 43% to 30%, with 11% backing Jones. 

Heck holds a 52% to 38% edge among white voters, compared with 47% to 35% in July.  Cortez Masto has a 55% to 32% lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters, compared with 49% to 29% in July.

Both U.S. Senate candidates have become better known since the summer, but opinion has moved in the negative direction.  Currently, 36% of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Heck and 32% have an unfavorable view of him, with 32% registering no opinion.  Voter opinion of Heck in July was 36% favorable and 19% unfavorable with 44% having no opinion.  Also, 34% of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Cortez Masto and 29% have an unfavorable view of her, with 37% registering no opinion.  Voter opinion of Cortez Masto in July was 29% favorable and 16% unfavorable with 55% having no opinion.

Overall, 38% of voters say special interests have too much influence over Heck, which is up from 26% in July.  Another 26% say special interests have the right amount of influence and 4% say they have too little influence, while 31% offer no opinion on this.  Similarly, 38% of voters say special interests have too much influence over Cortez Masto, which is up from 27% in July.  Another 24% say they have the right amount and 5% say they have too little influence, while 33% offer no opinion on this.

The candidates are vying to fill the seat of outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, whose own job approval rating has dipped since July.  Just 41% of likely Nevada voters approve of the job he has been doing while 51% disapprove.  This compares to a rating of 41% approve and 46% disapprove two months ago.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from September 11 to 13, 2016 with 406 Nevada residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.    

 

 DATA TABLES  

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS                                                               

 (* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

   

1/2.   If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, or Gary Johnson the Libertarian - or would you choose the option for none of these candidates?  [ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?]  [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

 

44%     Donald Trump

42%     Hillary Clinton

  8%     Gary Johnson

  3%     None of these candidates

<1%     (VOL) Other

  3%     (VOL) Undecided

 

3.      If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Joe Heck the Republican, Catherine Cortez Masto the Democrat, or Tom Jones of the Independent American Party - or would you choose the option for none of these candidates? [ IF UNDECIDED : If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Joe Heck or Catherine Cortez Masto?] [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

 

46%     Joe Heck

43%     Catherine Cortez Masto

  4%     Tom Jones

  3%     None of these candidates

  0%     (VOL) Other

  4%     (VOL) Undecided

 

Regardless of who you may support for president…

[ QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED ]

4.      Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

 

30%     Favorable

55%     Unfavorable

15%     No opinion

 

5.      Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?  

 

34%     Favorable

54%     Unfavorable

11%     No opinion

 

Turning to the Senate race…

[ QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED ]

6.      Is your general impression of Joe Heck favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

 

36%     Favorable

32%     Unfavorable

32%     No opinion

 

7.      Is your general impression of Catherine Cortez Masto favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?  

 

34%     Favorable

29%     Unfavorable

37%     No opinion

 

[ QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED ]

8.      How much influence do special interest groups have over Joe Heck - too much, too little, or the right amount?

 

38%     Too much

  4%     Too little

26%     Right amount

31%     (VOL) Don't know

 

9.      How much influence do special interest groups have over Catherine Cortez Masto - too much, too little, or the right amount?

   

38%       Too much  

   5%       Too little  

24%       Right amount  

33%       (VOL) Don't know  

   

10.    Do you approve or disapprove of the job Harry Reid is doing as U.S. senator?

 

41%     Approve

51%     Disapprove

  7%     (VOL) No opinion

   

METHODOLOGY  

The Monmouth University Poll  was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 11 to 13, 2016 with a random sample of 406 likely Nevada voters.  Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 356 drawn from a list of registered voters (206 landline / 150 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

 

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.  

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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Monmouth University Poll

West Long Branch, NJ 07764
www.monmouth.edu/polling
Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll

Patrick Murray

732-263-5858 (office)
pdmurray@monmouth.edu
Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick

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