Republican Primary Divide

West Long Branch, NJ – It is a tale of two electorates in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University-Washington Post Poll of potential GOP primary voters shows support for the party’s nomination is almost evenly divided between former President Donald Trump and the rest of the field. The state’s two homegrown candidates combine for just over one-quarter of voter intent. The poll also finds that Trump voters and those who support other candidates hold very different views on everything from cultural issues to the 2020 election outcome.

When asked who they would vote for in the February presidential primary, 46% of potential Republican voters choose Trump. The rest of the field trails far behind, including former Gov. Nikki Haley (18%) and Sen. Tim Scott (10%) from South Carolina, along with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (9%) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (5%). Just 1 in 5 (21%) potential GOP primary voters say having a candidate from their home state in the race makes them more likely to support that candidate, while 75% say Haley’s and Scott’s presence has no impact on their choice for the nomination.

Trump’s advantage in the poll results may actually be understated because his backers tend to be more engaged, and thus may have a higher likelihood of turning out, compared with other potential voters. For example, 87% of Trump voters claim to be absolutely certain to vote in the February primary, compared with 69% of other candidates’ supporters who say the same. Also, 76% of Trump voters are extremely motivated to vote in the primary, which is far greater than supporters of other candidates (46%).  Among those who have a strong track record of turning out for GOP primaries 54% support Trump. Trump voters (76%) are also much more likely than those backing another candidate (33%) to say they are definitely supporting their current choice. Nearly all Trump voters (93%) feel their candidate is the strongest Republican to take on President Joe Biden in 2024. Interestingly, 1 in 5 (20%) voters who are currently backing other GOP candidates for the nomination actually agree with that assessment.

Trump’s support is also well distributed geographically according to the poll, which was conducted jointly by Monmouth University and the Washington Post. In 2016, Trump received just under 33% of South Carolina’s primary vote. In the 17 counties where his primary vote share was within a couple points of this statewide average, Trump is currently getting 47% support – an increase of 15 percentage points from 2016. In the group of 24 counties where his performance was above average, Trump is currently getting 51% support, which is up by 8 points from 2016. In the five large, but mostly Democratic, counties where Trump’s vote share fell below his statewide average, he is currently getting 39% support, which is 13 points higher than his 2016 showing in those counties.

There are substantial differences between Trump and non-Trump Republicans when it comes to hot-button cultural issues. Trump voters (73%) are much more likely than supporters of other candidates (44%) to say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases and that government policies should support religious values and beliefs (47% to 27%). Trump backers (65%) are also more likely than other Republican voters (38%) to feel that whites are losing out because of preferences for Blacks and Hispanics. On foreign policy, Trump voters (64%) are more likely than other South Carolina Republican primary voters (42%) to oppose providing arms and military supplies to Ukraine.

Looking back at the 2020 election, many more Trump voters say that Biden only won due to voter fraud (87%, compared with 31% of other candidates’ backers) and they are also much more likely to say Trump did nothing wrong in his response to that election (74% compared with 17% among other voters). Overall, 21% of potential South Carolina Republican primary voters say Trump actually committed a crime, while 33% say he did something wrong although not criminal. If Trump wins the GOP nomination and is then convicted of a crime arising out of the 2020 election, half of South Carolina Republican voters say the party should keep him on the ticket, which includes 89% of Trump backers as well as 19% of those who support another candidate.

Among nine announced candidates – Trump along with the candidates who participated in the first debate last month – those with the best voter ratings are Scott (62% favorable to 20% unfavorable), Haley (59% to 24%), and Trump (60% to 30%). DeSantis is the only other candidate with a net positive rating (50% to 30%). The other five candidates in the poll earn net negative ratings, with Christie (16% favorable to 61% unfavorable) and former Vice President Mike Pence (20% to 56%) having the highest unfavorable numbers.

The poll also asked potential GOP primary voters to rate the importance of nine different issues facing the country. All but one are seen as extremely important by at least half of the electorate, with the exception being abortion (37% extremely important). Trump supporters are more likely than other candidates’ voters to see these issues as being extremely important (with the exception of abortion where there is no significant difference in the rating). When asked to name their single most important concern among these issues, South Carolina Republican primary voters put inflation and rising prices (26%), illegal immigration (19%), and the Justice Department being used for political purposes (14%) at the top of the list. The priority lists for Trump backers and other voters are very similar, with the exception of concerns about the Justice Department, which Trump voters are more likely to name as their top issue (21%, compared with 9% among those who back another candidate).

The Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll was conducted by telephone and online from September 6 to 11, 2023 with 506 potential Republican presidential primary voters in South Carolina. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points for this sample. The poll was conducted jointly by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and the Washington Post.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

Methodology

The Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll was conducted from September 6 to 11, 2023, among a probability-based sample of 705 South Carolina voters who have voted in at least one Republican primary election since 2016 or have newly registered since the 2020 election and not voted in a primary. The poll was conducted in English, and included 132 live landline telephone interviews, 260 live cell phone interviews, and 313 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research using telephone numbers randomly selected from a list of voters obtained from Aristotle. The full sample is weighted for region, age, gender and race based on the voter list and education based on US Census information (CPS and ACS one-year surveys). Results released from this poll are based on a sub-set of 506 voters who indicated they had a 50-50 chance or better of voting in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. For this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.13). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. The Monmouth University Polling Institute and the Washington Post jointly sponsored and conducted this poll, and are responsible for all aspects of the questionnaire and sample design as well as weighting and data analysis.

Potential primary voter demographics (weighted)

Party ID (self-reported): 43% strong Rep., 36% soft or lean Rep., 21% Ind. or Dem.

Ideology: 34% very conservative, 29% somewhat conservative, 36% moderate, liberal

Sex: 49% male, 51% female

Race: 87% White, 7% Black, 5% Hispanic/Asian/Other

Age: 12% 18-34, 17% 35-49, 31% 50-64, 40% 65+

Education: 32% high school or less, 33% some college, 22% 4-year degree, 13% advanced degree

Voted in 2016 GOP primary: 56% yes, 44% no

GOP primary turnout history: 22% high, 32% moderate, 46% low

Income:  31%  <$50K, 37% $50-<100K, 32% $100K+

Trump 2016 primary share (county): 21% above average, 54% average (30-35%), 25% below average

Evangelical:  58% yes, 42% no

MAGA supporter:  53% yes, 47% no

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.