Trump Voter Enthusiasm Dominates Republican Primary

West Long Branch, NJ – Trump voters in New Hampshire are more motivated and more committed when compared with those who back other Republican candidates for president. A Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University-Washington Post Poll of potential GOP primary voters in the state shows support for the party’s nomination is almost evenly divided between former President Donald Trump and the rest of the field, but with much different levels of enthusiasm. Despite New Hampshire’s reputation for providing an up close and personal test for aspiring presidents, fewer than 1 in 5 voters have had an opportunity to meet any of the current candidates.

When asked who they would vote for in the January Republican presidential primary, 46% of potential voters choose Trump. The rest of the field trails far behind, including Nikki Haley (18%), Chris Christie (11%), Vivek Ramaswamy (8%), and Ron DeSantis (7%). Among potential GOP primary voters without a college degree, 57% back Trump, while college graduates split their support between Trump (32%) and Haley (29%). The differences in vote choice by gender and age are not statistically significant.

Trump voters (78%) are much more likely than other candidates’ supporters (51%) to say they are extremely motivated to vote in the primary. They are also less likely to consider a second choice (18%, compared with 51% of other voters) according to the poll conducted jointly by Monmouth University and the Washington Post.

Trump (59% favorable and 36% unfavorable) and Haley (56% favorable and 31% unfavorable) receive similar personal ratings from the potential primary electorate. About 6 in 10 voters would essentially be okay with either one as the party’s eventual nominee. However, there is more outright enthusiasm for the idea of Trump (41%) as the Republican standard-bearer, than there is for Haley (20%). In a poll taken by Monmouth University shortly before the 2016 New Hampshire primary, just 26% of GOP primary voters were enthusiastic about the prospect of Trump becoming the party’s nominee, while another 30% said they would be satisfied with that outcome. At the other end of the spectrum, 23% of potential 2024 primary voters would be upset if Trump became the Republican nominee, which is nearly identical to the number who said the same back in 2016 (25%). Among supporters of other candidates in the current poll, just 27% would feel enthusiastic or satisfied with Trump as the nominee, while 68% say the same about the idea of Haley as the party’s pick. Still, only 29% of this group would actually be enthusiastic about Haley. By comparison, fully 80% of intended Trump voters express enthusiasm about their candidate winning the nomination. 

“The enthusiasm gap between Trump supporters and other New Hampshire primary voters is better described as a chasm. Even though Haley is well-regarded, she just doesn’t spark the kind of emotional connection that helps the former president maintain his base’s loyalty,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A little over half of New Hampshire Republican primary voters would be either enthusiastic (16%) or satisfied (39%) if DeSantis became the nominee, while just over one-third feel the same about Christie (6% enthusiastic and 29% satisfied). This marks a significant drop for Christie since his first run in 2016, when a majority (56%) were at least satisfied with the idea of him becoming the Republican nominee and only 15% said they would be upset (compared with 32% now). DeSantis has a personal rating of 47% favorable and 40% unfavorable among the state’s GOP primary electorate while Christie has a net negative rating of just 29% favorable and 60% unfavorable.

The poll also finds that Trump voters are concerned about a wider range of issues than other voters. Large majorities of Trump voters see the following as extremely important: illegal immigration (80%), the Justice Department being used for political purposes (72%), inflation (71%), government debt (65%), government invasion of privacy (63%), crime (63%), parents’ rights (62%), and gun rights (59%). Supporters of other candidates are less likely to see any of these issues as critical, with only inflation (46%), and illegal immigration (41%) registering as extremely important with more than 4 in 10 of these voters. Across the board, New Hampshire primary voters are much less likely to see the Israel-Gaza war (32%) and abortion (27%) as extremely important regardless of who they are supporting in the presidential primary.

There are substantial differences between Trump supporters and those who back other candidates when it comes to a range of concerns. Trump voters (42%) are much less likely than supporters of other candidates (67%) to say abortion should be legal in most or all cases. Trump backers (24%) are also less likely than other primary voters (65%) to support providing more military aid to Ukraine, although there is no difference in doing the same for Israel (69% for each group).

Looking back at the 2020 election, very few Trump voters say that Biden won fairly (9%, compared with 65% of other candidates’ backers) and they are also much less likely to say Trump engaged in criminal activity in his response to that election (0% compared with 43% among other voters). Overall, 22% of potential New Hampshire Republican primary voters say Trump actually committed a crime, while 29% say he did something wrong although not criminal, and 45% said he did nothing wrong.

In other poll findings, 17% of New Hampshire Republican primary voters have met one of the candidates running for president in either party. In comparison, a poll conducted by Monmouth a month before the 2016 primary put that number at 41%, although it had been a much lower 15% the prior July.

“The meet-and-greet portion of the campaign will pick up steam in the next few weeks, although it seems unlikely to be as much of a hands-on experience as we saw in 2016,” said Murray.

The current poll also finds that about half of the potential Republican primary electorate gets information from Fox News, with Trump voters (62%) being more likely than other candidates’ supporters (40%) to do this at least sometimes. Newsmax is a lesser used news source, but is still more likely to be used by Trump supporters (41%) than other voters (16%). Just over 1 in 4 New Hampshire GOP primary voters rely on social media sites for news, although there is not much difference between Trump backers (28%) and other voters (31%) in the use of this source.

The Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll was conducted by telephone and online from November 9 to 14, 2023 with 606 potential Republican presidential primary voters in New Hampshire. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points for this sample. The poll was conducted jointly by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and the Washington Post.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[QUESTIONS 14 & 15 WERE ROTATED]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll was conducted from November 9 to 14, 2023, among a probability-based sample of 841 New Hampshire voters who are either registered with the Republican Party or are undeclared. The poll was conducted in English, and included 254 live landline telephone interviews, 241 live cell phone interviews, and 346 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research using telephone numbers randomly selected from a list of voters obtained from Aristotle. The full sample is weighted for region, age, gender and race based on the voter list and education based on US Census information (CPS and ACS one-year surveys). Results released from this poll are based on a sub-set of 606 voters who indicated they have a 50-50 chance or better of voting in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. For this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.29). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. The Monmouth University Polling Institute and the Washington Post jointly sponsored and conducted this poll, and are responsible for all aspects of the questionnaire and sample design as well as weighting and data analysis.

Potential primary voter demographics (weighted)

Party ID (self-reported): 37% strong Rep., 46% soft or lean Rep., 17% Ind. or Dem.

Ideology: 32% very conservative, 38% somewhat conservative, 31% moderate, liberal

Sex: 55% male, 45% female

Race: 94% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Other

Age: 12% 18-34, 20% 35-49, 34% 50-64, 34% 65+

Education: 27% high school or less, 31% some college, 24% 4-year degree, 17% advanced degree

Voted in 2016 GOP primary: 55% yes, 45% no

Income:  23%  <$50K, 34% $50 to <$100K, 43% $100K+

Trump 2016 primary share (county): 34% above average, 33% average (35-36%), 33% below average

Evangelical:  22% yes, 78% no

MAGA supporter:  49% yes, 51% no

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.