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Monmouth University Polling Institute

Iowa

Trump Has Slight Edge Over Clinton

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Grassley leads in Senate re-election bid

West Long Branch, NJ  - Donald Trump holds a nominal 2 point lead over Hillary Clinton in the battle for Iowa's electoral votes, according to the Monmouth University Poll.  In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Chuck Grassley has a 10 point lead over Democratic challenger Patty Judge.  This is a far cry from the 30+ point margins Grassley enjoyed in prior re-election bids, as more Iowa voters disapprove than approve of his decision not to hold hearings on Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominee.

Among Iowa voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 44% currently support Trump and 42% back Clinton.  Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% say they will support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 2% say they will vote for another candidate, and 6% are undecided.

Among self-identified Republicans, 87% support Trump while 6% choose Clinton, 5% back Johnson, and 1% support Stein or another candidate.  Among Democrats, 86% support Clinton while 8% choose Trump, 2% back Johnson, and 1% support Stein or another candidate.  Among independents, 39% are with Trump and 35% are with Clinton, while 10% back Johnson and 4% choose Stein or another candidate.  Clinton has the lead among women voters by 54% to 33%.  Trump has a similar edge among men of 56% to 29%.

One unusual finding in the poll is that Trump leads among voters under 50 years old in Iowa.  In Monmouth polls conducted nationally and in other states, Clinton has held an advantage with younger voters.  Specifically, 51% of Iowa voters under age 50 currently support Trump, compared to 32% for Clinton, 7% for Johnson, and 3% for Stein or another candidate.  Among voters age 50 and older, Clinton has the edge with 50% support, compared to 38% for Trump, 4% for Johnson and 1% for Stein or another candidate.

"It's a toss-up right now, but Iowa could be the leading edge of a midwest push for Trump," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Iowa voters take a similarly dim view of both major party candidates.  Only 32% have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% hold an unfavorable view of her.  Likewise, only 33% have a favorable opinion of Trump while 51% hold an unfavorable view of him.  More than 4-in-10 voters (45%) feel it is very important to keep Clinton from being elected president, which is slightly more than the number (40%) who say the same about Trump.

There is not a clear consensus on which candidate is more likely to help "the little guy" - a campaign theme that has been emerging over the past few weeks.  Clinton has a slight edge here, with 38% who say she is more likely to look out for the little guy compared to 30% who say this describes Trump more.  Another 4% say this describes both of them equally, but 24% say neither candidate is likely to look out for the little guy.

On the other hand, recent news about how Clinton handled her private email server while Secretary of State poses a drag on her candidacy.  More than 4-in-10 Iowa voters (43%) believe that the Democratic nominee acted criminally, another 32% say she showed poor judgment and just 11% say she did nothing out of the ordinary, while another 15% offer no opinion.

Turning to the Hawkeye State's U.S. Senate race, six-term incumbent Chuck Grassley currently has 52% of the likely vote and former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge has 42%.  Just over 9-in-10 Republicans (92%) back Grassley and over 8-in-10 Democrats (83%) support Judge.  Independents prefer Grassley by a 52% to 40% margin.  Grassley leads among men by 66% to 30%, while Judge has an advantage among women of 53% to 40%.

Grassley's job approval numbers are higher than his personal ratings.  A majority of likely voters (56%) approve of the overall job he is doing in the Senate while just 33% disapprove.  Somewhat fewer voters (46%) have a favorable opinion of him personally, although just 31% have an unfavorable opinion, with 23% registering no opinion.  By comparison, Patty Judge gets a 30% favorable and 14% unfavorable personal rating, with 56% registering no opinion of her.

One issue that is keeping Grassley's margin lower than past elections is his decision not to hold Judiciary Committee hearings on Merrick Garland, President Obama's choice to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia.  Only 25% of voters approve of Grassley not holding hearings on the nomination - including 48% of Republicans, 22% of independents, and 6% of Democrats.  More voters (39%) say they disapprove of the senator's inaction on this issue - including 71% of Democrats, 39% of independents, and 8% of Republicans.  Another 36% of Iowa voters have no opinion on this.

"Grassley's overall job approval rating should be enough to give him the win unless Judge can make further inroads on the Garland issue," said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from July 8 to 11, 2016 with 401 Iowa residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

 

DATA TABLES  

   

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:  

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

   

1.        If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party?  [ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?]  [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

   

(with leaners)  

July 2016  

Donald Trump

44%  

Hillary Clinton

42%  

Gary Johnson

6%  

Jill Stein

1%  

(VOL) Other candidate

2%  

(VOL) Undecided

6%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

2.         If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Chuck Grassley the Republican or Patty Judge the Democrat?  [ IF UNDECIDED : If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Chuck Grassley or Patty Judge?]  [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

 (with leaners)  

July 2016  

Chuck Grassley

52%  

Patty Judge

42%  

(VOL) Other candidate

0%  

(VOL) Undecided

6%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

Regardless of who you may support for president…

[ QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED ]

3.     How important is it to you to make sure that Donald Trump does NOT get elected president - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?  

 

July 2016  

Very important

40%  

Somewhat important

11%  

Not too important

9%  

Not at all important

37%  

(VOL) Don't know

3%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

4.     How important is it to you to make sure that Hillary Clinton does NOT get elected president - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?  

 

July 2016  

Very important

45%  

Somewhat important

9%  

Not too important

9%  

Not at all important

35%  

(VOL) Don't know

2%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

[ QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED ]

5.     Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

 

July  

2016  

Favorable

33%  

Unfavorable

51%  

No opinion

16%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

6.     Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?  

 

July  

2016  

Favorable

32%  

Unfavorable

56%  

No opinion

12%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

7.     Which candidate would do a better job looking out for the little guy - Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, both of them equally, or neither of them? [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

 

July  

2016  

Donald Trump

30%  

Hillary Clinton

38%  

Both of them equally

4%  

Neither of them

24%  

(VOL) Don't know

4%  

(n)  

(401)  

   

8.     Based on recent news about Hillary Clinton's use of a personal email server when she was Secretary of State, do you think she committed a crime, she showed poor judgment but did not commit a crime, she did nothing out of the ordinary, or do you have no opinion on this?

 

July  

2016  

Committed a crime

43%  

Showed poor judgment but did not commit a crime

32%  

Did nothing out of the ordinary

11%  

No opinion

15%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

Turning to the Senate race…

[ QUESTIONS 9 & 10 WERE ROTATED ]

9.     Is your general impression of Chuck Grassley favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

 

July  

2016  

Favorable

46%  

Unfavorable

31%  

No opinion

23%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

10.   Is your general impression of Patty Judge favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?  

 

July  

2016  

Favorable

30%  

Unfavorable

14%  

No opinion

56%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

11.   Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chuck Grassley is doing as U.S. senator?

 

July  

2016  

Approve

56%  

Disapprove

33%  

(VOL) No opinion

11%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

12.   Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Grassley's decision NOT to hold hearings on President Obama's Supreme Court nominee, or do you have no opinion on this?

 

July  

2016  

Approve

25%  

Disapprove

39%  

(VOL) No opinion

36%  

(n)  

(401)  

 

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from July 8 to 11, 2016 with a random sample of 401 likely Iowa voters.  Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 351 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 on a landline and 151 on a cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and party registration based on voter list and U.S. Census information.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

 

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)  

35%  Reg Rep  

37%  Reg Dem  

28%  Reg Oth/UNA  

   

48% Male  

52% Female  

   

21% 18-34  

25% 35-49  

29% 50-64  

25% 65+  

   

94% White  

  3% Black  

  2% Hispanic  

  1% Other  

 

MARGIN OF ERROR  

   

Unweighted  N  

moe  

LIKELY VOTERS  


 

401  

4.9%  

GENDER  

Male  

193  

7.1%  

Female  

208  

6.8%  

PARTY SELF-ID  

Rep  

116  

9.1%  

Ind  

147  

8.1%  

Dem  

135  

8.4%  

 

 

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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Monmouth University Poll

West Long Branch, NJ 07764
www.monmouth.edu/polling
Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll

Patrick Murray

732-263-5858 (office)
pdmurray@monmouth.edu
Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick

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