For this year’s gubernatorial election, the Monmouth University Polling Institute joined with NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey newspaper group to provide some “home-grown” analysis of the New Jersey exit polls.
The exit polls were conducted by Edison Research (of Somerville, NJ) for the National Election Pool (the major TV and cable networks and the AP).
Here are links to summaries of the exit poll stories we ran Tuesday night:
Did a Property Tax Plan Matter?
The Daggett Factor
The Obama Factor
The Democratic Base
Gender, Age and Race
And for good measure, here’s what I was looking for before the results came in:
What to Look for In the New Jersey Election
Editorial note: I have heard some questions about why education, the budget, and others issues did not come up as voters concerns in the exit poll. Especially since they made the list in pre-election polls. Well, there was a difference in how the questions were asked. Most pre-election polls, including Monmouth/Gannett, asked the issue question in open-ended fashion, i.e. “Name your top issue.” The exit poll however made voters choose from among only four: property taxes, economy & jobs, health care, and corruption.
Some have noted that corruption came up somewhat higher in the exit poll than in the pre-election polls. My personal view is that some “government spending/budget” voters chose “corruption” as the choice among the four that came closest to their own concern (i.e. “waste fraud, and abuse”). In fact, I had strongly suggested to the Exit Poll group that they should add a fifth category (“government spending”) to their list. So, we’ll have to live with the supposition that the “corruption” number in the exit poll also includes voters most concerned with government waste in general.