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All Tied Up in Monmouth Poll

Monday, Nov. 5, 2012

Obama 48%; Romney 48%

The latest Monmouth University Poll of voters nationwide finds that the race for president couldn’t be tighter.  Likely voters split evenly between Pres. Barack Obama (48%) and Gov. Mitt Romney (48%).  Another 2% say they will vote for a third party candidate and 2% remain undecided.  The last Monmouth University Poll, released on October 22, showed Romney leading by 3 points.

Obama leads among women (51% – 46%), young voters under age 35 (53% to 41%), and Hispanic voters (61% – 32%).  Romney leads among independents (53% – 37%), men (51% – 44%) and white voters (59% – 39%).

Candidate  Ratings

Barack Obama:  47% favorable to 44% unfavorable;  was 45% to 45% two weeks ago.

Mitt Romney:  46% favorable to 41% unfavorable;  was 49% to 39% two weeks ago.

Issue advantage

Barack Obama trusted more to handle:

Foreign policy :  49%, to 45% for Romney;  was 47% to 46% two weeks ago.

Social Security/Medicare : 49% to 46;  two weeks ago, Romney was trusted more (48% to 45% for Obama).

Mitt Romney trusted more to handle:

Economy/jobs : 50%, to 46% for Obama;  was 50% to 44% two weeks ago.

Federal budget/debt :  49% to 46%;  was 51% to 42% two weeks ago.

The latest Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone with 1,417 likely voters in the United States from November 1 to 4, 2012.  This sample has a margin of error of ±  2.6 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1. If the election for President were today, would you vote for Mitt Romney the Republican, or Barack Obama the Democrat, or some other candidate? [IF UNDECIDED: At this moment, do you lean towards Mitt Romney or do you lean towards Barack Obama?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] [Includes early voters who have already cast their ballots]

(with leaners)

Likely
Voters

PARTY IDGENDERAGE

RACE

Rep

IndDemMaleFemale18-3435-5455+WhiteBlack

Hispanic

Romney48%92%53%5%51%46%41%50%52%59%8%32%
Obama48%7%37%94%44%51%53%47%45%39%88%61%
Other candidate2%1%6%0%3%2%3%2%2%2%2%5%
(VOL) Undecided2%0%3%1%2%2%3%1%1%1%2%2%
TREND: Likely VotersNov.
2012
Mid Oct.
2012
Early Oct.
2012
Sept.
2012
Aug.
2012
June
2012
Romney48%48%47%45%45%46%
Obama48%45%46%48%46%47%
Other candidate2%3%2%3%4%3%
(VOL) Undecided2%5%5%4%6%4%
Unwtd N

1417

1402136013441149

1152

[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED]

2. Is your general opinion of Mitt Romney favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERAGE

RACE

 

Rep

IndDemMaleFemale18-3435-5455+WhiteBlack

Hispanic

Favorable46%87%48%8%48%44%36%46%51%56%15%27%
Unfavorable41%7%34%77%38%43%43%42%38%34%68%53%
No opinion13%6%18%16%14%13%21%12%11%10%18%20%
TREND: Likely VotersNov.
2012
Mid Oct.
2012
Early Oct.
2012
Sept.
2012
Aug.
2012
June.
2012
Favorable46%49%46%41%40%38%
Unfavorable41%39%39%40%39%37%
No opinion13%12%15%19%21%25%
Unwtd N

1417

1402136013441149

1152

3. Is your general opinion of Barack Obama favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERAGE

RACE

 

Rep

IndDemMaleFemale18-3435-5455+WhiteBlack

Hispanic

Favorable47%9%36%92%42%52%45%50%45%38%85%58%
Unfavorable44%85%50%3%48%41%35%45%49%54%6%29%
No opinion8%7%13%5%10%7%19%5%5%7%9%13%
TREND: Likely VotersNov.
2012
Mid Oct.
2012
Early Oct.
2012
Sept.
2012
Aug.
2012
June
2012
Favorable47%45%46%46%45%45%
Unfavorable44%45%45%43%43%43%
No opinion8%10%8%11%12%11%
Unwtd N

1417

1402136013441149

1152

[QUESTIONS 4 TO 7 WERE ROTATED]

4. Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERAGE

RACE

 

Rep

IndDemMaleFemale18-3435-5455+WhiteBlack

Hispanic

Romney50%93%57%6%53%47%46%50%53%60%10%35%
Obama46%7%35%92%43%49%49%47%43%36%86%60%
Not sure/Don’t know4%0%9%2%4%4%5%3%4%4%4%5%
TREND: Likely VotersNov.
2012
Mid Oct.
2012
Early Oct.
2012
Sept.
2012
Aug.
2012
Romney50%50%49%45%45%
Obama46%44%45%48%45%
Not sure/Don’t know4%5%6%6%10%
Unwtd N

1417

140213601344

1149

5. Who do you trust more to handle Social Security and Medicare – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERAGE

RACE

 

Rep

IndDemMaleFemale18-3435-5455+WhiteBlack

Hispanic

Romney46%88%50%5%48%44%36%49%50%56%10%32%
Obama49%8%41%93%46%52%54%48%46%40%83%62%
Not sure/Don’t know5%4%10%2%6%5%10%3%4%4%7%5%
TREND: Likely VotersNov.
2012
Mid Oct.
2012
Early Oct.
2012
Sept.
2012
Aug.
2012
Romney46%48%45%42%43%
Obama49%45%46%50%46%
Not sure/Don’t know5%8%8%8%11%
Unwtd N

1417

140213601344

1149

6. Who do you trust more to handle the federal budget and national debt – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERAGE

RACE

 

Rep

IndDemMaleFemale18-3435-5455+WhiteBlack

Hispanic

Romney49%91%56%6%52%47%43%51%51%60%11%31%
Obama46%7%35%90%43%48%50%45%43%36%83%59%
Not sure/Don’t know5%2%8%4%5%5%7%3%5%4%6%10%
TREND: Likely VotersNov.
2012
Mid Oct.
2012
Early Oct.
2012
Sept.
2012
Aug.
2012
Romney49%51%48%47%46%
Obama46%42%44%47%44%
Not sure/Don’t know5%7%8%7%10%
Unwtd N

1417

140213601344

1149

7. Who do you trust more to handle foreign policy – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERAGE

RACE

 

Rep

IndDemMaleFemale18-3435-5455+WhiteBlack

Hispanic

Romney45%86%50%5%47%42%36%46%49%55%8%26%
Obama49%11%39%93%47%52%55%49%46%39%86%67%
Not sure/Don’t know6%4%11%3%6%6%9%5%4%6%6%7%
TREND: Likely VotersNov.
2012
Mid Oct.
2012
Early Oct.
2012
Sept.
2012
Aug.
2012
Romney45%46%45%42%

n/a

Obama49%47%47%51%

n/a

Not sure/Don’t know6%6%8%7%

n/a

Unwtd N

1417

14021360

1149

n/a

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from November 1 to 4, 2012 with a national random sample of 1,417 likely voters, including 511 via live interview on a landline telephone, 617 via interactive voice response (IVR) on a landline telephone, and 289 via live interview on a cell phone.  Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, Inc. (live landline and cell) and Survey USA (IVR and live cell) and the telephone sample was obtained from Survey Sampling International.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey questionnaire design, data weighting and analysis.  For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)  LIKELY VOTERS

31% Rep47% Male22% 18-34

72% White

34% Ind53% Female39% 35-54

11% Black

35% Dem 39% 55+

12% Hispanic

   

      5% Asian/Other

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with crosstabs