Little Enthusiasm for 2024 Front-Runners

West Long Branch, NJ – There is not a lot of enthusiasm for either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump becoming the major party nominees in 2024. American voters are much more likely to see Biden as too old than say the same about Trump. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds that Biden’s support in a potential rematch against Trump has slipped over the past two months. This has mainly come from a decline in the Democrat’s support among Black, Hispanic and Asian voters, while Trump has made some gains among this group. The poll also finds differing views of Trump’s current legal woes and the impeachment inquiry into Biden. However, both, along with the Hunter Biden court case, factor into the outlook for a potential rematch of the 2020 election.

Three-quarters (76%) of American voters agree that Biden is too old to effectively serve another term as president. Just under half (48%) say the same about Trump.* In fact, 55% of voters strongly agree with this assessment of Biden’s age while 26% strongly agree with the same statement about Trump. As may be expected, there are partisan differences in these results, with Republicans (23%) being much less likely than other voters to think Trump is too old and Democrats being less likely – although still a 56% majority – to say Biden is too old. There are no sizable differences by age within each party on these views.

“These two men were born only three and a half years apart, but public perceptions of their age are wildly different. This is certainly one of the reasons, but probably not the only reason, why there is little voter enthusiasm for seeing a rematch of 2020 except among partisan loyalists,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Just 37% of voters express at least some enthusiasm about the possibility of Trump being the Republican nominee and 32% are enthusiastic about Biden getting the nod for the Democrats. Majorities are not at all enthusiastic about either Trump (52%) or Biden (53%) being at the top of their respective party tickets. Among independents, 35% are enthusiastic about having Trump as the GOP nominee and only 19% feel enthusiastic about Biden heading the Democratic ticket. Among partisans, just under 8 in 10  Republicans and just under 7 in 10 Democrats say they are enthusiastic about the current front-runner becoming their respective party’s nominee, with Republicans (47%) being much more likely than Democrats (29%) to feel very enthusiastic about that potential outcome. Among Democrats, 60% of those under 65 years old are at least somewhat enthusiastic about Biden becoming their nominee, which is a lower level than among those age 65 and over (83%). There are no significant age differences in Republican voter enthusiasm about Trump becoming their nominee.

In a Biden-Trump rematch scenario, just over 4 in 10 registered voters say they will either definitely (31%) or probably (11%) vote for the Democratic incumbent and a similar number will definitely (31%) or probably (12%) support the Republican. Majorities, though, say they will not vote for either Biden (51% definitely not and 6% probably not) or Trump (48% definitely not and 8% probably not). These results mark a drop in Biden’s potential support since July (from 47% to 42% combined) while Trump’s support has ticked up slightly (from 40% to 43%). Biden’s decline is due mainly to a significant slip in support among Black, Latino, and Asian voters (from 63% definitely or probably in July to 47% now). Trump has picked up about half of that number (going from 23% among voters of color in July to 33% now.

The Monmouth University Poll also looked at the impact of current legal issues surrounding both candidates. Regarding Trump’s response to the 2020 election outcome, just under half of American voters (46%) think he committed a crime, 22% say he did something wrong but it was not criminal, and 29% said he did nothing wrong. For the incumbent, who is now facing an official impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives, 34% say Biden should be impeached and 16% say he may have violated his office but should not be impeached, while a plurality of 43% say Biden has not violated his oath of office in his actions as president so far.

Just 15% of the electorate has a lot of trust, 33% has a little trust, and 50% has no trust in the House to conduct a fair investigation into Biden. Back in November 2021, when the House formed a select committee to investigate then-President Trump, a slightly higher number (26%) had a lot of trust in that investigation, 31% had a little trust and 41% had no trust. Interestingly, Republicans (29%) are less likely to have a lot of trust in the current inquiry into Biden than Democrats (58%) had in the first Trump impeachment investigation.

More voters (93%) have actually heard about the recent legal troubles of the president’s son, Hunter, than have heard about the current impeachment inquiry (79%). Just over one-fourth (27%) of the electorate say that the younger Biden’s legal woes make them less likely to vote for the incumbent. Most of the voters who say the Hunter Biden issue may impact their vote identify themselves as Republicans and are unlikely to support the Democrat anyway. Voters who currently support Biden and say this issue may affect their support make up about 2% of the total electorate and another 2% identify as Democrats who do not currently support Biden.

“The actual impact of the Hunter Biden story may be small in statistical terms but one or two percentage points could be crucial in competitive states,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 19 to 24, 2023 with 814 adults in the United States. The question results in this release are based on 737 registered voters and have a margin of error +/- 4.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

[* Note: the poll questions on candidate age specifically did not mention how old either Trump or Biden are, so that the results represent extant opinion based on current knowledge and perceptions. Framing the questions with correct age information could change how some people respond and thus introduce error in measuring public opinion as it currently exists.]

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-7 previously released.]

[QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 10 & 11 WERE ROTATED]

Looking ahead to next year’s presidential election, imagine the Democratic nominee is Joe Biden and the Republican nominee is Donald Trump. In this scenario…

[QUESTIONS 12 & 13 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 14 & 15 WERE ROTATED]

Please tell me how much you agree or disagree with the following statements…

[Q22-30 previously released.]

Methodology

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 19 to 24, 2023 with a probability-based national random sample of 814 adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 280 live landline telephone interviews, 286 live cell phone interviews, and 248 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n= 532), Aristotle (list, n= 106) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n= 176). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2021 one-year survey). The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 737 registered voters. For results based on the sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.54). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 24% Republican, 44% Independent, 31% Democrat

Sex: 47% Male, 52% Female

Age: 26% 18-34, 33% 35-54, 41% 55+

Race: 62% White, 12% Black, 16% Hispanic, 10% Asian/Other

Education: 36% High school or less, 30% Some college, 18% 4 year degree, 17% graduate degree

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.