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Public Doesn’t Trust Iran on Nuke Deal

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Obama job rating ticks up


West Long Branch, NJ  – A Monmouth University Poll taken as the Iran nuclear talks dragged on over the weekend, but before the final agreement was announced, found that nearly half of the American public supports the idea of trying to negotiate a deal to rein in that country’s nuclear capabilities.  At the same time, few actually believe that Iran will live up to the terms of any such agreement.

About 3-in-4 Americans are aware that the U.S. has been negotiating with Iran to curb that country’s nuclear program – 33% have heard a lot and 41% have heard a little.  The talks in Vienna have now dragged on for more than two weeks.  The poll found that nearly half (49%) of Americans feel that trying to work out a deal with Iran is a good idea, while 36% say it is a bad idea.  Another 4% say it is both good and bad and 11% are unsure.  Most Democrats (61%) say that talking with Iran on this issue is a good idea while most Republicans (55%) say it is a bad one.  A plurality of independents (49%) feel the negotiations are a good idea.

Despite the feeling that getting Iran to the table has been a positive move, very few Americans expect that the Tehran government will live up to any nuclear agreement.  A majority of 55% say they would not trust Iran at all to abide by terms that would dismantle its nuclear program and allow independent inspections.  Just 35% would trust Iran a little and only 5% would have a lot of trust in Iran to abide by the terms of any agreement.  This level of trust is similar to a Monmouth poll taken in January when 59% expressed no trust, 34% a little, and just 4% a lot.

“The pact with Iran faces an uncertain future in Congress.  A major sticking point with the American public is a sense that Tehran really can’t be trusted to keep its part of the bargain,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

The Monmouth University Poll  also found that Pres. Barack Obama’s job rating with the American public is now a narrowly positive 47% approve to 46% disapprove.  This marks a slight improvement from the 44% approve to 46% disapprove rating he held in June.  Currently, 80% of Democrats approve of the president’s job performance and an identical 80% of Republicans disapprove.  Independents give Obama a slightly negative split at 42% approve and 48% disapprove.

Congress continues to earn a negative 18% approve to 69% disapprove job rating, virtually unchanged from prior polls.  Currently, just 28% of Americans feel the country is heading in the right direction while 63% say it is on the wrong track, which is similar to the public mood measured in polls taken over the past few months.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from July 9 to 12, 2015 with 1,001 adults in the United States.   This sample has a margin of error of ±  3.1 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER

PARTY ID

Yes

No Rep Ind

Dem

Approve 47% 47% 49% 17% 42% 80%
Disapprove 46% 49% 36% 80% 48% 18%
(VOL) No opinion 7% 4% 15% 3% 10% 2%
TREND: July
2015
June
2015
April
2015
Jan.
2015
Dec.
2014
July
2013
Approve 47% 44% 42% 43% 41% 42%
Disapprove 46% 46% 48% 48% 49% 51%
(VOL) No opinion 7% 10% 10% 8% 10% 6%
Unwtd N

1,001

1,002 1,005 1,003 1,008

1,012

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?
TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER

PARTY ID

Yes

No Rep Ind

Dem

Approve 18% 18% 21% 23% 13% 22%
Disapprove 69% 73% 57% 67% 73% 71%
(VOL) No opinion 12% 9% 22% 10% 14% 7%
TREND: July
2015
June
2015
April
2015
Jan.
2015
Dec.
2014
July
2013
Approve 18% 19% 21% 18% 17% 14%
Disapprove 69% 71% 67% 70% 73% 76%
(VOL) No opinion 12% 10% 12% 11% 11% 10%
Unwtd N

1,001

1,002 1,005 1,003 1,008

1,012

  1. Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER

PARTY ID

Yes

No Rep Ind

Dem

Right direction 28% 27% 32% 8% 26% 49%
Wrong track 63% 66% 54% 88% 64% 42%
(VOL) Depends 5% 4% 8% 2% 7% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 5% 3% 2% 4%

 

TREND: July
2015
June
2015
April
2015
Dec.
2014
July
2013
Right direction 28% 23% 27% 23% 28%
Wrong track 63% 68% 66% 69% 63%
(VOL) Depends 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 2% 3% 4%
Unwtd N

1,001

1,002 1,005 1,008

1,012

  1. The United States is currently negotiating an agreement with Iran to curb that country’s nuclear program. How much have you heard about this – a lot, a little, or nothing at all?
TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER

PARTY ID

Yes

No Rep Ind

Dem

A lot 33% 37% 21% 41% 34% 32%
A little 41% 43% 35% 42% 42% 41%
Nothing at all 26% 20% 44% 17% 25% 27%
  1. Do you think these negotiations are a good idea or bad idea?
TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER

PARTY ID

Yes

No Rep Ind

Dem

Good idea 49% 49% 52% 38% 49% 61%
Bad idea 36% 39% 28% 55% 36% 24%
(VOL) Some of both 4% 3% 5% 3% 3% 4%
(VOL) Don’t know 11% 10% 15% 4% 12% 11%
  1. The U.S. is trying to get Iran to agree to dismantle its nuclear program and allow independent inspections. How much would you trust Iran to abide by the terms of such an agreement – a lot, a little, or not at all?
TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER

PARTY ID

Yes

No Rep Ind

Dem

A lot 5% 4% 7% 1% 6% 7%
A little 35% 33% 43% 28% 33% 45%
Not at all 55% 58% 46% 71% 55% 45%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 4% 5% 1% 5% 3%

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from July 9 to 12, 2015 with a national random sample of 1,001 adults age 18 and older.  This includes 700 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 301 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and SSI (RDD sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

26% Rep 49% Male 31% 18-34

66% White

43% Ind 51% Female 37% 35-54

12% Black

31% Dem   32% 55+

15% Hispanic

     

       7% Asian/Other

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables