West Long Branch, NJ – President Donald Trump suggests he is open to accepting dirt on his political rivals from foreign sources. A key aide is called out for violating the Hatch Act – for a second time. Surely, this must be the week that finally puts a dent in Trump’s polling numbers? Not a chance, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. The president’s job rating, reelection backing, and support for impeachment are all pretty much where they have been over the past year. Public opinion on whether Trump has “drained the swamp,” has focused on issues important to American families, or has been getting too cozy with Russia are all pretty much trending as usual. While the vast majority of Americans certainly view the current administration as unconventional, very few are surprised by how Trump has behaved over the past two years – and that is a key reason for the stability in his poll numbers.
Trump’s overall job rating stands at 41% approve and 50% disapprove, which is similar to his 40% to 52% rating in May. Over the past 12 months, the president’s approval rating has ranged between 40% and 44% while his disapproval rating has ranged between 49% and 54%.
Fewer than 4-in-10 registered voters (37%) say that Trump should be reelected in 2020. A majority of 59% say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office. Last month, his reelection support stood at 37% to 60%. These results are consistent with prior polls that ranged from 37% to 38% for reelection and 57% to 58% for someone new. [Note: the poll was conducted before the president’s official reelection campaign launch on Tuesday.]
The poll finds that 35% of Americans feel that Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency while 59% disagree with this course of action. Support for the president’s removal via impeachment ranged between 36% and 42% from July 2017 to May 2019. The current result is numerically lower but statistically similar to those results. Opposition to impeachment ranged between 53% and 59% during the same time.
Just 41% of Americans say that the president has been giving enough attention to issues that are important to their families. A majority (55%) wish he would devote more attention to these issues. When Monmouth last asked this question in November 2018, 38% said he was giving enough attention to these issues and 56% said he was not. Prior results ranged from 34% to 40% for giving enough attention and 51% to 62% for wishing he would do more on these issues.
“We asked ten different trend questions about Donald Trump and nothing has really moved. We could have just done a cut and paste with the numbers from any other poll and got pretty much the same result on each of these questions,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Fewer than 1-in-4 Americans (23%) feel that Trump has made progress on his promise to “drain the swamp” in Washington, while 32% say he has actually made the swamp worse, and 35% say nothing has changed. When Monmouth last asked this question in November 2018, 30% said he had made progress cleaning up Washington, 30% said he had made it worse, and 33% said nothing had changed. Prior results ranged from 20% to 25% for making progress, 26% to 33% for making things worse, and 35% to 39% for nothing having changed.
Just under half (47%) of the American public is concerned, either a lot (36%) or a little (11%), that Trump is too friendly toward Russia, while a similar 48% are not concerned. In January, 50% were concerned and 47% were not. Prior polls during Trump’s presidency had concern about his attitude toward Russia hovering between 48% and 54%, while lack of concern ranged between 44% and 49%.
A little under half (45%) feel that Trump’s attitude toward Russia poses a national security threat, while 51% say it does not. In January those results were an identical 45% to 51%. Prior polls found between 48% and 50% saying Trump’s posture toward Russia posed a threat and between 45% and 48% saying it did not.
“We just had another round of breaking news that raises questions about the president’s relationships with foreign regimes as well as the ‘swampiness’ in his own administration. But the public opinion needle has stayed put once again. The bottom line is that Trump’s behavior is pretty much exactly what the American public expected it would be. The details may be different, but the underlying conduct surprises few people,” said Murray.
Just 1-in-5 (21%) Americans say they are surprised – 13% very surprised and 8% somewhat surprised – by how Trump has behaved since taking office. Fully 77% are not surprised. This result is basically no different than just over a year ago, when 19% were surprised (9% very and 10% somewhat) and 79% were not surprised.
The vast majority of Americans (80%) say the way Trump runs his administration is less conventional than past presidents, while just 13% say it has been about as conventional as his predecessors. These results are virtually identical to polls conducted in April 2019 (80% to 12%) and April 2018 (81% to 12%). Just under half (47%) say Trump’s unconventional behavior has been bad for the country, similar to 46% in both April 2019 and April 2018. Just over 1-in-4 (27%) disagree and say his behavior has been good for the country, which is basically the same as prior polls (26% in April 2019 and 27% in April 2018).
The Monmouth University Poll also finds that 19% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing and 69% disapprove. A little under one-third (31%) say the country is headed in the right direction while 62% say things have gotten off on the wrong track. These results are similar to Monmouth poll findings from last month.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from June 12 to 17, 2019 with 751 adults in the United States. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
QUESTIONS AND RESULTS
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
May 2019 | April 2019 | March 2019 |
Jan. 2019 |
Nov. 2018 |
Aug. 2018 |
June 2018 |
April 2018 |
March 2018 |
Jan. 2018 |
| Approve | 41% | 40% | 40% | 44% | 41% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 41% | 39% | 42% |
| Disapprove | 50% | 52% | 54% | 51% | 54% | 49% | 50% | 46% | 50% | 54% | 50% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 9% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 8% |
| (n) | (751) | (802) | (801) | (802) | (805) | (802) | (805) | (806) | (803) | (803) | (806) |
| TREND: Continued |
Dec. 2017 |
Sept. 2017 |
Aug. 2017 |
July 2017 |
May 2017 |
March 2017 |
| Approve | 32% | 40% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 43% |
| Disapprove | 56% | 49% | 49% | 52% | 53% | 46% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 11% |
| (n) | (806) | (1,009) | (805) | (800) | (1,002) | (801) |
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
May 2019 |
April 2019 |
March 2019 |
Jan. 2019 |
| Approve | 19% | 20% | 24% | 23% | 18% |
| Disapprove | 69% | 71% | 62% | 68% | 72% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 12% | 9% | 14% | 9% | 10% |
| (n) | (751) | (802) | (801) | (802) | (805) |
| TREND: Continued |
Nov. 2018 |
Aug. 2018 |
June 2018 |
April 2018 |
March 2018 |
Jan. 2018 |
Dec. 2017 |
Sept. 2017 |
Aug. 2017 |
July 2017 |
May 2017 |
March 2017 |
Jan. 2017 |
| Approve | 23% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 18% | 21% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 19% | 25% | 23% |
| Disapprove | 63% | 69% | 67% | 71% | 72% | 68% | 65% | 69% | 69% | 70% | 68% | 59% | 66% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 14% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 19% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 11% |
| (n) | (802) | (805) | (806) | (803) | (803) | (806) | (806) | (1,009) | (805) | (800) | (1,002) | (801) | (801) |
| TREND: Continued |
Sept. 2016* |
Aug. 2016* |
June 2016* |
March 2016 |
Jan. 2016 |
Dec. 2015 |
Oct. 2015 |
Sept. 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
July 2015 |
June 2015 |
April 2015 |
Jan. 2015 |
Dec. 2014 |
July 2013 |
| Approve | 15% | 14% | 17% | 22% | 17% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 18% | 17% | 14% |
| Disapprove | 77% | 78% | 76% | 68% | 73% | 73% | 71% | 71% | 72% | 69% | 71% | 67% | 70% | 73% | 76% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 8% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% |
| (n) | (802) | (803) | (803) | (1,008) | (1,003) | (1,006) | (1,012) | (1,009) | (1,203) | (1,001) | (1,002) | (1,005) | (1,003) | (1,008) | (1,012) |
*Registered voters
3. Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
May 2019 |
April 2019 |
March 2019 |
Nov. 2018 |
Aug. 2018 |
June 2018 |
April 2018 |
March 2018 |
Jan. 2018 |
Dec. 2017 |
Aug. 2017 |
May 2017 |
March 2017 |
Jan. 2017 |
| Right direction | 31% | 29% | 28% | 29% | 35% | 35% | 40% | 33% | 31% | 37% | 24% | 32% | 31% | 35% | 29% |
| Wrong track | 62% | 63% | 62% | 63% | 55% | 57% | 53% | 58% | 61% | 57% | 66% | 58% | 61% | 56% | 65% |
| (VOL) Depends | 6% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| (n) | (751) | (802) | (801) | (802) | (802) | (805) | (806) | (803) | (803) | (806) | (806) | (805) | (1,002) | (801) | (801) |
| TREND: Continued |
Aug. 2016* |
Oct. 2015 |
July 2015 |
June 2015 |
April 2015 |
Dec. 2014 |
July 2013 |
| Right direction | 30% | 24% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 23% | 28% |
| Wrong track | 65% | 66% | 63% | 68% | 66% | 69% | 63% |
| (VOL) Depends | 2% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| (n) | (803) | (1,012) | (1,001) | (1,002) | (1,005) | (1,008) | (1,012) |
*Registered voters
[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED]
4. Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the Presidency, or not?
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
May 2019 |
March 2019 |
Nov. 2018 |
April 2018 |
Jan. 2018 |
July 2017 |
| Yes, should | 35% | 39% | 42% | 36% | 39% | 38% | 41% |
| No, should not | 59% | 56% | 54% | 59% | 56% | 57% | 53% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 6% |
| (n) | (751) | (802) | (802) | (802) | (803) | (806) | (800) |
[REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY: moe= +/– 3.8%]
5. Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?
| TREND: REGISTERED VOTERS |
June 2019 |
May 2019 |
March 2019 |
Jan. 2019 |
Nov. 2018 |
| Should be re-elected | 37% | 37% | 38% | 38% | 37% |
| Someone else in office | 59% | 60% | 57% | 57% | 58% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| (n) | (660) | (719) | (746) | (735) | (716) |
6. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with President Trump, has he been giving enough attention to the issues that are most important to your family or do you wish he would give more attention to issues that are important to your family?
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
Nov. 2018 |
Sept. 2017 |
Aug. 2017 |
May 2017 |
March 2017 |
| Giving enough attention | 41% | 38% | 37% | 40% | 34% | 36% |
| Wish he’d give more attention | 55% | 56% | 53% | 51% | 62% | 57% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 4% | 6% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
| (n) | (751) | (802) | (1,009) | (805) | (1,002) | (801) |
7. Donald Trump promised to “drain the swamp” when he got to Washington. Would you say that he has made progress draining the swamp, that he has made the swamp worse, or that nothing has really changed?
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
Nov. 2018 |
April. 2018 |
Dec. 2017 |
Aug. 2017 |
May 2017 |
| Made progress draining the swamp | 23% | 30% | 25% | 20% | 25% | 24% |
| Made the swamp worse | 32% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 26% | 32% |
| Nothing has really changed | 35% | 33% | 37% | 38% | 39% | 35% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 9% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 8% |
| (n) | (751) | (802) | (803) | (806) | (805) | (1,002) |
8. Would you say the way Trump runs his administration has been less conventional than prior presidents, or about as conventional as prior presidents?
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
April 2019 |
April 2018 |
| Less conventional | 80% | 80% | 81% |
| About as conventional | 13% | 12% | 12% |
| (VOL) More conventional | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| (n) | (751) | (801) | (803) |
9. Is Trump being less conventional good or bad for the country?
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
April 2019 |
April 2018 |
| Good | 27% | 26% | 27% |
| Bad | 47% | 46% | 46% |
| (VOL) Both good and bad | 4% | 7% | 5% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Not less conventional (from Q8) | 20% | 20% | 19% |
| (n) | (751) | (801) | (803) |
10. Now that he’s been in office for more than two years, are you surprised by how Donald Trump has behaved as president or doesn’t his behavior really surprise you? [If SURPRISED: Is that very or just somewhat surprised?]
|
June 2019 |
April 2018* | |
| Yes, very surprised | 13% | 9% |
| Yes, somewhat surprised | 8% | 10% |
| No, not really surprised | 77% | 79% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 2% | 2% |
| (n) | (751) | (803) |
*April 2018 question wording was: “Now that he’s been in office for more than a year…”
[NOTE: QUESTIONS 10A AND 10B WERE ONLY ASKED 6/13-6/17; n=598, m.o.e= +/-4.0%]
10A. Are you concerned or not concerned that President Trump may be too friendly toward Russia? [If CONCERNED: Are you concerned a lot or a little?]
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
Jan. 2019 |
March 2018 |
July 2017 |
May 2017 |
March 2017 |
Jan. 2017 |
Aug. 2016* |
| Concerned, a lot | 36% | 40% | 39% | 38% | 39% | 37% | 33% | 32% |
| Concerned, a little | 11% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 12% | 11% | 15% | 13% |
| Not concerned | 48% | 47% | 46% | 44% | 45% | 49% | 48% | 49% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| (n) | (598) | (805) | (803) | (800) | (1,002) | (801) | (801) | (803) |
*Registered voters
10B. Do you think Trump’s attitude toward Russia does or does not present a national security threat to the U.S.?
| TREND: |
June 2019 |
Jan. 2019 |
March 2018 |
July 2017 |
May 2017 |
| Does | 45% | 45% | 50% | 48% | 48% |
| Does not | 51% | 51% | 45% | 48% | 46% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 7% |
| (n) | (598) | (805) | (803) | (800) | (1,002) |
[Q11-15, 23-30 held for future release.]
[Q16-22 previously released.]
METHODOLOGY
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from June 12 to 17, 2019 with a national random sample of 751 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 301 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 450 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
| DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) |
| Self-Reported |
| 25% Republican |
| 43% Independent |
| 32% Democrat |
| 49% Male |
| 51% Female |
| 31% 18-34 |
| 33% 35-54 |
| 36% 55+ |
| 64% White |
| 12% Black |
| 16% Hispanic |
| 8% Asian/Other |
| 68% No degree |
| 32% 4 year degree |
Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.
