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All The President’s Trends

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Very little Trump does surprises the American public

West Long Branch, NJ – President Donald Trump suggests he is open to accepting dirt on his political rivals from foreign sources. A key aide is called out for violating the Hatch Act – for a second time. Surely, this must be the week that finally puts a dent in Trump’s polling numbers? Not a chance, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll.  The president’s job rating, reelection backing, and support for impeachment are all pretty much where they have been over the past year.  Public opinion on whether Trump has “drained the swamp,” has focused on issues important to American families, or has been getting too cozy with Russia are all pretty much trending as usual. While the vast majority of Americans certainly view the current administration as unconventional, very few are surprised by how Trump has behaved over the past two years – and that is a key reason for the stability in his poll numbers.

Trump’s overall job rating stands at 41% approve and 50% disapprove, which is similar to his 40% to 52% rating in May. Over the past 12 months, the president’s approval rating has ranged between 40% and 44% while his disapproval rating has ranged between 49% and 54%.

Fewer than 4-in-10 registered voters (37%) say that Trump should be reelected in 2020. A majority of 59% say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office. Last month, his reelection support stood at 37% to 60%. These results are consistent with prior polls that ranged from 37% to 38% for reelection and 57% to 58% for someone new. [Note: the poll was conducted before the president’s official reelection campaign launch on Tuesday.]

The poll finds that 35% of Americans feel that Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency while 59% disagree with this course of action. Support for the president’s removal via impeachment ranged between 36% and 42% from July 2017 to May 2019. The current result is numerically lower but statistically similar to those results. Opposition to impeachment ranged between 53% and 59% during the same time.

Just 41% of Americans say that the president has been giving enough attention to issues that are important to their families. A majority (55%) wish he would devote more attention to these issues.  When Monmouth last asked this question in November 2018, 38% said he was giving enough attention to these issues and 56% said he was not. Prior results ranged from 34% to 40% for giving enough attention and 51% to 62% for wishing he would do more on these issues.

“We asked ten different trend questions about Donald Trump and nothing has really moved.  We could have just done a cut and paste with the numbers from any other poll and got pretty much the same result on each of these questions,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Fewer than 1-in-4 Americans (23%) feel that Trump has made progress on his promise to “drain the swamp” in Washington, while 32% say he has actually made the swamp worse, and 35% say nothing has changed.  When Monmouth last asked this question in November 2018, 30% said he had made progress cleaning up Washington, 30% said he had made it worse, and 33% said nothing had changed. Prior results ranged from 20% to 25% for making progress, 26% to 33% for making things worse, and 35% to 39% for nothing having changed.

Just under half (47%) of the American public is concerned, either a lot (36%) or a little (11%), that Trump is too friendly toward Russia, while a similar 48% are not concerned. In January, 50% were concerned and 47% were not.  Prior polls during Trump’s presidency had concern about his attitude toward Russia hovering between 48% and 54%, while lack of concern ranged between 44% and 49%.

A little under half (45%) feel that Trump’s attitude toward Russia poses a national security threat, while 51% say it does not. In January those results were an identical 45% to 51%.  Prior polls found between 48% and 50% saying Trump’s posture toward Russia posed a threat and between 45% and 48% saying it did not.

“We just had another round of breaking news that raises questions about the president’s relationships with foreign regimes as well as the ‘swampiness’ in his own administration.  But the public opinion needle has stayed put once again.  The bottom line is that Trump’s behavior is pretty much exactly what the American public expected it would be. The details may be different, but the underlying conduct surprises few people,” said Murray.

Just 1-in-5 (21%) Americans say they are surprised – 13% very surprised and 8% somewhat surprised – by how Trump has behaved since taking office. Fully 77% are not surprised. This result is basically no different than just over a year ago, when 19% were surprised (9% very and 10% somewhat) and 79% were not surprised.

The vast majority of Americans (80%) say the way Trump runs his administration is less conventional than past presidents, while just 13% say it has been about as conventional as his predecessors. These results are virtually identical to polls conducted in April 2019 (80% to 12%) and April 2018 (81% to 12%).  Just under half (47%) say Trump’s unconventional behavior has been bad for the country, similar to 46% in both April 2019 and April 2018.  Just over 1-in-4 (27%) disagree and say his behavior has been good for the country, which is basically the same as prior polls (26% in April 2019 and 27% in April 2018).

The Monmouth University Poll also finds that 19% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing and 69% disapprove. A little under one-third (31%) say the country is headed in the right direction while 62% say things have gotten off on the wrong track. These results are similar to Monmouth poll findings from last month.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from June 12 to 17, 2019 with 751 adults in the United States.  The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

  TREND: June
2019
May
2019
April
2019
March
2019
Jan.
2019
Nov.
2018
Aug.
2018
June
2018
April
2018
March
2018
Jan.
2018
Approve 41% 40% 40% 44% 41% 43% 43% 43% 41% 39% 42%
Disapprove 50% 52% 54% 51% 54% 49% 50% 46% 50% 54% 50%
(VOL) No opinion 9% 8% 6% 5% 5% 8% 7% 11% 9% 8% 8%
   (n) (751) (802) (801) (802) (805) (802) (805) (806) (803) (803) (806)
  TREND: Continued Dec.
2017
Sept.
2017
Aug.
2017
July
2017
May
2017
March
2017
Approve 32% 40% 41% 39% 39% 43%
Disapprove 56% 49% 49% 52% 53% 46%
(VOL) No opinion 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 11%
 (n) (806) (1,009) (805) (800) (1,002) (801)

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?

  TREND: June
2019
May
2019
April
2019
March
2019
Jan.
2019
Approve 19% 20% 24% 23% 18%
Disapprove 69% 71% 62% 68% 72%
(VOL) No opinion 12% 9% 14% 9% 10%
(n) (751) (802) (801) (802) (805)
  TREND: Continued Nov.
2018
Aug.
2018
June
2018
April
2018
March
2018
Jan.
2018
Dec.
2017
Sept.
2017
Aug.
2017
July
2017
May
2017
March
2017
Jan.
2017
Approve 23% 17% 19% 17% 18% 21% 16% 17% 18% 19% 19% 25% 23%
Disapprove 63% 69% 67% 71% 72% 68% 65% 69% 69% 70% 68% 59% 66%
(VOL) No opinion 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 11% 19% 15% 13% 11% 13% 16% 11%
(n) (802) (805) (806) (803) (803) (806) (806) (1,009) (805) (800) (1,002) (801) (801)
  TREND: Continued Sept.
2016*
Aug.
2016*
June
2016*
March
2016
Jan.
2016
Dec.
2015
Oct.
2015
Sept.
2015
Aug.
2015
July
2015
June
2015
April
2015
Jan.
2015
Dec.
2014
July
2013
Approve 15% 14% 17% 22% 17% 16% 17% 19% 18% 18% 19% 21% 18% 17% 14%
Disapprove 77% 78% 76% 68% 73% 73% 71% 71% 72% 69% 71% 67% 70% 73% 76%
(VOL) No opinion 8% 9% 7% 10% 10% 10% 12% 11% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 11% 10%
(n) (802) (803) (803) (1,008) (1,003) (1,006) (1,012) (1,009) (1,203) (1,001) (1,002) (1,005) (1,003) (1,008) (1,012)

*Registered voters

3. Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

  TREND: June
2019
May
2019
April
2019
March
2019
Nov.
2018
Aug.
2018
June
2018
April
2018
March
2018
Jan.
2018
Dec.
2017
Aug.
2017
May
2017
March
2017
Jan.
2017
Right direction 31% 29% 28% 29% 35% 35% 40% 33% 31% 37% 24% 32% 31% 35% 29%
Wrong track 62% 63% 62% 63% 55% 57% 53% 58% 61% 57% 66% 58% 61% 56% 65%
(VOL) Depends 6% 4% 7% 6% 7% 6% 3% 5% 6% 3% 7% 4% 5% 4% 4%
(VOL) Don’t know 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 5% 3% 5% 2%
(n) (751) (802) (801) (802) (802) (805) (806) (803) (803) (806) (806) (805) (1,002) (801) (801)
  TREND: Continued Aug.
2016*
Oct.
2015
July
2015
June
2015
April
2015
Dec.
2014
July
2013
Right direction 30% 24% 28% 23% 27% 23% 28%
Wrong track 65% 66% 63% 68% 66% 69% 63%
(VOL) Depends 2% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4%
(n) (803) (1,012) (1,001) (1,002) (1,005) (1,008) (1,012)

            *Registered voters

[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED]

4. Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the Presidency, or not?

TREND: June
2019
May
2019
March
2019
Nov.
2018
April
2018
Jan.
2018
July
2017
Yes, should 35% 39% 42% 36% 39% 38% 41%
No, should not 59% 56% 54% 59% 56% 57% 53%
(VOL) Don’t know 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6%
(n) (751) (802) (802) (802) (803) (806) (800)

[REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY: moe= +/ 3.8%]

5. Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?

TREND: REGISTERED VOTERS June
2019
May
2019
March
2019
Jan.
2019
Nov.
2018
Should be re-elected 37% 37% 38% 38% 37%
Someone else in office 59% 60% 57% 57% 58%
(VOL) Don’t know 4% 4% 5% 5% 4%
(n) (660) (719) (746) (735) (716)

6. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with President Trump, has he been giving enough attention to the issues that are most important to your family or do you wish he would give more attention to issues that are important to your family?

TREND: June
2019
Nov.
2018
Sept.
2017
Aug.
2017
May
2017
March
2017
Giving enough attention 41% 38% 37% 40% 34% 36%
Wish he’d give more attention 55% 56% 53% 51% 62% 57%
(VOL) Don’t know 4% 6% 10% 9% 5% 7%
(n) (751) (802) (1,009) (805) (1,002) (801)

7. Donald Trump promised to “drain the swamp” when he got to Washington. Would you say that he has made progress draining the swamp, that he has made the swamp worse, or that nothing has really changed?

TREND: June
2019
Nov.
2018
April.
2018
Dec.
2017
Aug.
2017
May
2017
Made progress draining the swamp 23% 30% 25% 20% 25% 24%
Made the swamp worse 32% 30% 31% 33% 26% 32%
Nothing has really changed 35% 33% 37% 38% 39% 35%
(VOL) Don’t know 9% 6% 7% 9% 10% 8%
(n) (751) (802) (803) (806) (805) (1,002)

8. Would you say the way Trump runs his administration has been less conventional than prior presidents, or about as conventional as prior presidents?

TREND: June
2019
April
2019
April
2018
Less conventional 80% 80% 81%
About as conventional 13% 12% 12%
(VOL) More conventional 2% 3% 2%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 5% 5%
(n) (751) (801) (803)

9. Is Trump being less conventional good or bad for the country?

TREND: June
2019
April
2019
April
2018
Good 27% 26% 27%
Bad 47% 46% 46%
(VOL) Both good and bad 4% 7% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 2% 2% 3%
Not less conventional (from Q8) 20% 20% 19%
(n) (751) (801) (803)

10. Now that he’s been in office for more than two years, are you surprised by how Donald Trump has behaved as president or doesn’t his behavior really surprise you? [If SURPRISED: Is that very or just somewhat surprised?]

  June
2019
April
2018*
Yes, very surprised 13% 9%
Yes, somewhat surprised 8% 10%
No, not really surprised 77% 79%
(VOL) Don’t know 2% 2%
(n) (751) (803)

  *April 2018 question wording was: “Now that he’s been in office for more than a year…”

[NOTE: QUESTIONS 10A AND 10B WERE ONLY ASKED 6/13-6/17; n=598, m.o.e= +/-4.0%]

10A. Are you concerned or not concerned that President Trump may be too friendly toward Russia?  [If CONCERNED: Are you concerned a lot or a little?]

TREND: June
2019
Jan.
2019
March
2018
July
2017
May
2017
March
2017
Jan.
2017
Aug.
2016*
Concerned, a lot 36% 40% 39% 38% 39% 37% 33% 32%
Concerned, a little 11% 10% 13% 16% 12% 11% 15% 13%
Not concerned 48% 47% 46% 44% 45% 49% 48% 49%
(VOL) Don’t know 4% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%
(n) (598) (805) (803) (800) (1,002) (801) (801) (803)

            *Registered voters

10B. Do you think Trump’s attitude toward Russia does or does not present a national security threat to the U.S.?

TREND: June
2019
Jan.
2019
March
2018
July
2017
May
2017
Does 45% 45% 50% 48% 48%
Does not 51% 51% 45% 48% 46%
(VOL) Don’t know 4% 4% 5% 4% 7%
(n) (598) (805) (803) (800) (1,002)

[Q11-15, 23-30 held for future release.]

[Q16-22 previously released.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from June 12 to 17, 2019 with a national random sample of 751 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 301 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 450 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
Self-Reported
25% Republican
43% Independent
32% Democrat
 
49% Male
51% Female
 
31% 18-34
33% 35-54
36% 55+
 
64% White
12% Black
16% Hispanic
  8% Asian/Other
 
68% No degree
32% 4 year degree
  

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with crosstabs