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Monmouth University Polling Institute

Clinton Leads Trump by 7

Monday, June 20, 2016

Many voters worried about either candidate winning; Terrorism concerns unchanged post-Orlando

West Long Branch, NJ - In a head-to-head contest for president, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 7 points among registered voters and by 8 points among likely voters. The Democrat's lead shrinks by a point when potential third party support is taken into account. Both major party nominees remain unpopular, but more voters say it is important to keep Trump rather than Clinton out of the White House. The latest Monmouth University Poll also finds that attitudes towards terrorism and the Republican nominee's proposed Muslim ban have not changed much since the Orlando tragedy.

Currently, Clinton holds a 7 point lead in a direct match-up against Trump - 47% to 40% among registered voters nationally. Among those who are likely to cast ballots in November, the Democrat's edge expands to 49%-41%. Importantly, Clinton holds a 47% to 39% lead in the all-important swing states - ten states where the winning margin in the 2012 election was less than seven points.

Clinton has the support of 87% of Democrats and Trump has the support of 84% of Republicans, while independents split 42% for Clinton and 37% for Trump. The gender gap is particularly large, Clinton leads among women by 27 points (57%-30%) while Trump leads among men by 13 points (50%-37%). Clinton also holds a commanding advantage among black, Hispanic and Asian voters (72%-17%), while Trump leads among white voters (49%-38%).

When Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and leading Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the mix, Clinton's lead shrinks slightly to 6 points among registered voters - 42% to 36% for Trump, with Johnson earning 9% and Stein getting 4%. Clinton leads Trump by 7 points - 44% to 37% - among likely voters in this four-way contest.

"Clinton has the advantage as the general election campaign kicks off, particularly in key swing states. However, all signs point to 2016 turning out the most polarized electorate in memory," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Neither major party candidate is particularly popular. Clinton earns a negative 36% favorable and 52% unfavorable rating while Trump holds an even worse 28% favorable and 57% unfavorable rating. These results are largely unchanged from a Monmouth University Poll taken in March. Nearly half of all voters (49%) say it is very important to them to make sure Trump is not elected president, compared to 31% who say this is not at all important. Relatively fewer voters (41%) say it is very important to keep Clinton out of the White House compared to 35% who say this concern is not at all important to them. Among voters who are undecided or currently prefer a third party candidate, 48% say it is very important to them to prevent a Trump victory while just 32% say the same about Clinton.

"About one in seven voters would like to cast their ballot for a third party candidate. The fear of either Clinton or Trump getting into the White House, though, may lead some to hold their noses and vote for the other major party nominee. And right now, a Trump victory appears to be the more troubling outcome for these voters," said Murray.

On the issues, slightly more voters see Clinton (47%) as better able than Trump (44%) to deal with the economy and jobs. Her issue advantage is similarly narrow on handling the threat of terrorism on U.S. soil - 46% prefer Clinton and 44% prefer Trump.

With the shooting in Orlando fresh on voters' minds, just 29% say the U.S. government is doing enough to prevent future domestic terrorist attacks while 64% say it is not doing enough. These results are largely unchanged from a Monmouth poll taken shortly after the San Bernardino shooting last year (31% doing enough and 62% not doing enough in December 2015).

Most voters (52%) say that U.S. citizens who become radicalized pose a bigger threat than overseas terrorists who infiltrate the country (29%). This opinion has shifted by just a few points since December, when 48% pointed to homegrown terrorism as the bigger threat while 36% were more worried about overseas terrorists.

Currently, 21% of voters support and 70% oppose a ban on all Muslims entering the U.S., which Trump first proposed after the San Bernardino attack. Opinion on this proposal back then was a similar 27% support and 65% oppose.

Since Orlando, Trump has also suggested a blanket immigration ban against any person living in a country where there has been a history of terrorism against the West. Voters reject this proposal as well, with just 34% in favor compared to 57% who are opposed.

Turning to the issue of gun control, voters are more likely to back a ban on the sale of assault weapons like the kind used in the Orlando shooting, with 52% supporting such a ban and 43% opposing it.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from June 15 to 19, 2016 with 803 registered voters in the United States. The results in this release have a margin of error of ± 3.5 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

 

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

 

  1. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or Hillary Clinton the Democrat? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
TREND Registered voters June
2016
March
2016
Donald Trump 40% 38%
Hillary Clinton 47% 48%
(VOL) Other candidate 5% 2%
(VOL) Undecided 6% 3%
(VOL) No one/refused 2% 9%
Unwtd N

803

848

 

  1. And who would you vote for if the candidates were Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
TREND Registered voters June
2016
March
2016
Donald Trump 36% 34%
Hillary Clinton 42% 42%
Gary Johnson 9% 11%
Jill Stein 4%

n/a

(VOL) Other candidate 2% 1%
(VOL) Undecided 4% 5%
(VOL) No one/refused 1% 7%
Unwtd N

803

848

 

  1. Are you certain about your vote choice, or might you change your mind before Election Day?
  June
2016
Certain 69%
Might change mind 18%
Undecided on vote 13%
Unwtd N

803

 

Regardless of who you may support for president…

[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED]

  1. How important is it to you to make sure that Donald Trump does NOT get elected president – very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?
  June
2016
Very important 49%
Somewhat important 10%
Not too important 8%
Not at all important 31%
(VOL) Don’t know 2%
Unwtd N

803

 

  1. How important is it to you to make sure that Hillary Clinton does NOT get elected president – very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?
  June
2016
Very important 41%
Somewhat important 10%
Not too important 11%
Not at all important 35%
(VOL) Don’t know 3%
Unwtd N

803

 

[QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
TREND Registered voters June
2016
March
2016
Oct.
2015
Aug.
2015
June
2015
Favorable 28% 30% 32% 31% 18%
Unfavorable 57% 60% 50% 54% 57%
No opinion 15% 11% 18% 14% 25%
Unwtd N

803

848 836 1,033

829

 

  1. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?
TREND Registered voters June
2016
March
2016
Oct.
2015
Aug.
2015
June
2015
Favorable 36% 40% 41% 38% 41%
Unfavorable 52% 51% 48% 48% 44%
No opinion 13% 9% 11% 14% 14%
Unwtd N

803

848 836 1,033

829

 

[QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
  June
2016
Trump 44%
Clinton 47%
(VOL) Neither 6%
(VOL) Don’t know 3%
Unwtd N

803

 

  1. Who do you trust more to handle the threat of terrorism on U.S. soil – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
  June
2016
Trump 44%
Clinton 46%
(VOL) Neither 7%
(VOL) Don’t know 3%
Unwtd N

803

 

  1. Do you think the U.S. government is doing enough or not doing enough to prevent a future terrorist attack on American soil?
TREND Registered voters June
2016
Dec.
2015
Jan.
2015
Doing enough 29% 31% 44%
Not doing enough 64% 62% 50%
(VOL) Doing too much 0% 0% 1%
(VOL) Don’t know 6% 7% 5%
Unwtd N

803

856

863

 

  1. Which do you think poses a bigger threat of future attacks on U.S. soil – terrorists from overseas who infiltrate the country or U.S. citizens who become radicalized? [OPTIONS WERE ROTATED]
TREND Registered voters June
2016
Dec.
2015
Terrorists from overseas 29% 36%
Radicalized U.S. citizens 52% 48%
(VOL) Both equally 14% 11%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 4%
Unwtd N

803

856

 

[QUESTIONS 12 THROUGH 14 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Do you support or oppose banning all Muslims from entering the U.S.?
TREND Registered voters June
2016
Dec.
2015
Support 21% 27%
Oppose 70% 65%
(VOL) Depends 6% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3%
Unwtd N

803

856

 

  1. Do you support or oppose a blanket ban on the immigration of any person who lives in a country where there has been a history of terrorism against the west?
  June
2016
Support 34%
Oppose 57%
(VOL) Depends 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 5%
Unwtd N

803

 

  1. Do you support or oppose banning the sale of assault weapons like the kind used in the Orlando shooting?
  June
2016
Support 52%
Oppose 43%
(VOL) Depends 3%
(VOL) Don’t know 3%
Unwtd N

803

 

[Q15-18 held for future release.]

 

*  2012 Presidential Election Regions
Swing States (<7% margin): CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI

Leaning States (7-12% margin):  AZ, GA, IN, MI, MN, MS, MO, NM, OR, SC

Red States (>12% GOP margin): AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MT, NE, ND, OK, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

Blue States (>12% Dem margin): CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA

 

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from June 15 to 19, 2016 with a national random sample of 803 registered voters, drawn from both a list of registered voters and through random digit dialing.  The interview was conducted by a live caller in English, including 401 contacted on a landline telephone and 402 contacted on a cell phone.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on national voter list information and U.S. Census data.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), SSI (RDD sample) and Aristotle (voter list sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

 

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
28% Rep
38% Ind
34% Dem
 
47% Male
53% Female
 
25% 18-34
26% 35-49
28% 50-64
21% 65+
 
71% White
13% Black
10% Hispanic

  5% Asian/Other

 

 

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

 

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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