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CD06: Gerlach v. Trivedi

Thursday, Oct. 21, 2010

GOP incumbent up by 10 points


In Pennsylvania’s 6th  Congressional District, incumbent Jim Gerlach holds a 10 point lead over Iraq War veteran Manan Trivedi.  The Monmouth University Poll  finds Republican Gerlach with 54% of the vote and Democrat Trivedi with 44% among likely voters in this district.

Gerlach has a strong 58% to 37% advantage in the Berks (plus part of Lehigh) County portion of this district and a similar 59% to 38% lead in the Chester County portion.  Trivedi has the edge in Montgomery County by 58% to 42%.

“Gerlach has won election by no more than four points in his prior races.  This year, though, the national Republican surge looks to give him a more comfortable re-election margin,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Congressman Gerlach’s job performance rating among likely voters in his district is generally positive at 50% approve to 39% disapprove.  He garners personal ratings of 50% favorable to 35% unfavorable.  By comparison, 33% of voters give Trivedi a favorable rating and 25% an unfavorable one, but fully 41% have no opinion of the challenger less than two weeks before Election Day.

While they gave Barack Obama a 17 point win in 2008’s presidential contest, likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 6th  District are more likely to disapprove (52%) rather than approve (44%) of the job Obama is doing today.  Also, most (62%) voters here think the country is on the wrong track.

Voters in the 6th  are somewhat divided over whether they prefer having the Republicans (48%) or the Democrats (44%) in charge of Congress next year.  Both parties get generally negative reviews.  The Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 41% of voters and unfavorably by 55%.  The Republican Party fares no better at 40% favorable to 54% unfavorable.  The Tea Party movement receives similar ratings at 41% favorable to 49% unfavorable.

In Pennsylvania’s 6th  Congressional District, incumbent Jim Gerlach holds a 10 point lead over Iraq War veteran Manan Trivedi.  The Monmouth University Poll  finds Republican Gerlach with 54% of the vote and Democrat Trivedi with 44% among likely voters in this district.

Gerlach has a strong 58% to 37% advantage in the Berks (plus part of Lehigh) County portion of this district and a similar 59% to 38% lead in the Chester County portion.  Trivedi has the edge in Montgomery County by 58% to 42%.

“Gerlach has won election by no more than four points in his prior races.  This year, though, the national Republican surge looks to give him a more comfortable re-election margin,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Congressman Gerlach’s job performance rating among likely voters in his district is generally positive at 50% approve to 39% disapprove.  He garners personal ratings of 50% favorable to 35% unfavorable.  By comparison, 33% of voters give Trivedi a favorable rating and 25% an unfavorable one, but fully 41% have no opinion of the challenger less than two weeks before Election Day.

While they gave Barack Obama a 17 point win in 2008’s presidential contest, likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 6 th  District are more likely to disapprove (52%) rather than approve (44%) of the job Obama is doing today.  Also, most (62%) voters here think the country is on the wrong track.

Voters in the 6 th  are somewhat divided over whether they prefer having the Republicans (48%) or the Democrats (44%) in charge of Congress next year.  Both parties get generally negative reviews.  The Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 41% of voters and unfavorably by 55%.  The Republican Party fares no better at 40% favorable to 54% unfavorable.  The Tea Party movement receives similar ratings at 41% favorable to 49% unfavorable.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 642 likely voters from October 18 to 20, 2010.  This sample has a margin of error of ± 3.9 percent.

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

 

  1. If the election for United States Congress from Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional District were today, would you vote for Jim Gerlach the Republican or Manan Trivedi the Democrat? [At this moment, do you lean toward Jim Gerlach or lean toward Manan Trivedi?]  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Jim Gerlach 54% 15% 54% 95% 57% 51% 49% 56% 54%
Manan Trivedi 44% 83% 38% 4% 41% 46% 47% 43% 42%
Other – Undecided 2% 2% 8% 1% 2% 4% 4% 1% 4%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general opinion of Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Jim Gerlach?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 50% 17% 51% 86% 52% 49% 45% 53% 51%
Unfavorable 35% 62% 35% 6% 37% 32% 40% 36% 30%
No opinion 15% 22% 14% 8% 11% 19% 15% 11% 19%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

  1. Is your general opinion of Manan Trivedi favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Manan Trivedi?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 33% 62% 32% 3% 32% 34% 30% 34% 34%
Unfavorable 25% 4% 28% 47% 33% 18% 24% 27% 25%
No opinion 41% 34% 41% 50% 35% 48% 46% 39% 41%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jim Gerlach is doing as your Congressman?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Approve 50% 16% 52% 85% 50% 50% 44% 51% 53%
Disapprove 39% 67% 38% 9% 42% 35% 44% 41% 33%
Not sure 11% 17% 10% 6% 8% 15% 11% 8% 14%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

  1. Are things in the United States going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Right direction 34% 64% 26% 7% 35% 34% 40% 31% 34%
Wrong track 62% 29% 69% 93% 62% 61% 55% 66% 62%
Not sure 4% 7% 5% 0% 2% 5% 6% 2% 4%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Approve 44% 82% 36% 8% 42% 46% 49% 44% 41%
Disapprove 52% 14% 58% 89% 55% 48% 43% 53% 55%
Not sure 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 6% 8% 3% 4%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

  1. Who would you rather see in control of Congress next year – the Democrats, the Republicans, or does it make no difference?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Democrats 44% 82% 38% 5% 40% 47% 51% 42% 41%
Republicans 48% 9% 50% 88% 52% 44% 40% 51% 50%
No difference 9% 9% 12% 7% 8% 9% 9% 7% 9%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

[QUESTIONS 8 AND 9 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general opinion of the Democratic party favorable or unfavorable?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 41% 82% 25% 6% 38% 44% 45% 40% 40%
Unfavorable 55% 14% 68% 90% 59% 50% 51% 57% 55%
No opinion 4% 4% 6% 4% 3% 6% 4% 4% 5%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

  1. Is your general opinion of the Republican party favorable or unfavorable?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 40% 10% 34% 76% 41% 39% 36% 40% 43%
Unfavorable 54% 88% 53% 17% 55% 52% 59% 55% 48%
No opinion 6% 2% 13% 7% 4% 9% 6% 4% 8%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

  1. Is your general opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 41% 7% 49% 72% 46% 36% 32% 42% 45%
Unfavorable 49% 82% 44% 16% 48% 49% 54% 49% 45%
No opinion 10% 10% 7% 12% 6% 15% 13% 9% 10%
Unwtd N

642

224 151 267 407 235 116 225

301

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.  The poll was conducted on October 16-19, 2010 with a random sample of 637 likely voters in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District.  The sample was drawn from a list of households with voters who cast ballots in at least two of the last four general elections and further screened for those who say they are either “certain” or “likely” to vote in this November’s election.  The voter list was obtained from Aristotle, Inc. and automated voice interviewing services were provided by Survey USA in Clifton, New Jersey.

For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS
Likely Voter Sample (weighted)

Household
Registration

Self-Reported
Party ID

Gender

Age

Race

48% Democrat 41% Democrat 49% Male 25% 18-44

93% White, non-Hispanic

43% Republican 38% Republican 51% Female 37% 45-59

  7% Other

  9% Other 21% Independent   38% 60+  

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables