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Monmouth University Polling Institute

CD07: Meehan v. Lentz

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Republican nominee holds narrow lead; but both GOP and Dem Party disliked

In the race to succeed Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania's 7 th Congressional District, Republican Pat Meehan holds a narrow 4 point lead over Democrat Bryan Lentz.  The Monmouth University Poll finds Meehan leading Lentz by a 49% to 45% margin among likely voters in this district.

Meehan, a former U.S. Attorney garners personal ratings of 44% favorable to 26% unfavorable.  State Representative Lentz gets similar ratings of 37% favorable to 25% unfavorable.

President Barack Obama won this district by 13 points in 2008.  Today, though, 7 th District voters give him a negative job performance rating of 44% approve to 50% disapprove.  Among those who voted for Obama two years ago, 77% say they will vote for Democrat Lentz, but 16% will cast their ballots for Meehan on November 2.  By comparison, 88% of John McCain voters from 2008 will support GOP nominee Meehan, versus just 8% who will vote for Lentz.

Overall, 61% of voters in Pennsylvania's 7 th  think the country is on the wrong track compared with 36% who say it is headed in the right direction.

"This district mirrors the national mood.  Voters are disappointed with the way the country has gone over the past two years and blame both political parties, but they have to choose someone," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

District voters are somewhat more likely to prefer having the Republicans (47%) rather than the Democrats (40%) in control of Congress next year, even though a majority have a negative view of both parties - 38% favorable to 53% unfavorable for the GOP and 40% favorable to 54% unfavorable for the Democrats.  The Tea Party movement is also viewed negatively by voters, 37% favorable to 51% unfavorable.

It's not clear how Joe Sestak would have fared had he decided to run for re-election to the House rather than pursue a U.S. Senate seat.  Likely voters in the 7 th  are split on the outgoing Congressman's job performance - 46% approve to 42% disapprove.  Similarly, the district is divided on how they will vote for U.S. Senate - 49% say they will support Sestak in his bid for higher office while 46% will vote for Republican Pat Toomey.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 670 likely voters from October 4 to 6, 2010.  This sample has a margin of error of ±  3.8 percent.

 

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

 

  1. If the election for United States Congress from Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District were today, would you vote for Pat Meehan the Republican, Bryan Lentz the Democrat, or some other candidate? [At this moment, do you lean toward Pat Meehan or lean toward Bryan Lentz?]  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Pat Meehan 49% 9% 51% 84% 53% 45% 51% 47% 49%
Bryan Lentz 45% 85% 38% 11% 41% 48% 42% 48% 44%
Other - Undecided 7% 6% 10% 5% 7% 7% 8% 5% 7%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general opinion of Pat Meehan favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Pat Meehan?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 44% 11% 45% 74% 46% 42% 48% 40% 45%
Unfavorable 26% 47% 24% 8% 29% 23% 25% 27% 25%
No opinion 30% 42% 31% 18% 26% 35% 27% 33% 30%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

  1. Is your general opinion of Bryan Lentz favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Bryan Lentz?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 37% 65% 32% 15% 38% 37% 31% 43% 37%
Unfavorable 25% 7% 25% 43% 30% 21% 30% 23% 25%
No opinion 37% 27% 42% 43% 32% 41% 40% 34% 38%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

  1. If the election for United States Senator from Pennsylvania were today, would you vote for Pat Toomey the Republican, Joe Sestak the Democrat, or some other candidate? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Pat Toomey 46% 8% 50% 81% 49% 44% 44% 47% 47%
Joe Sestak 49% 88% 42% 15% 46% 51% 47% 49% 49%
Other - Undecided 5% 3% 8% 5% 4% 6% 9% 4% 4%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Sestak is doing as your Congressman?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Approve 46% 82% 40% 16% 47% 45% 43% 48% 46%
Disapprove 42% 10% 47% 70% 47% 39% 45% 44% 40%
Not sure 12% 9% 13% 13% 7% 16% 12% 9% 14%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

  1. Are things in the United States going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Right direction 36% 70% 26% 10% 33% 38% 29% 36% 39%
Wrong track 61% 26% 69% 87% 62% 59% 64% 62% 57%
Not sure 4% 4% 5% 3% 5% 3% 7% 2% 3%
Unwtd N 670 238 194 238 426 244 168 190 312

 

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Approve 44% 83% 38% 11% 41% 47% 39% 46% 45%
Disapprove 50% 11% 57% 83% 55% 47% 54% 50% 48%
Not sure 6% 6% 5% 6% 4% 7% 7% 4% 6%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

  1. Who would you rather see in control of Congress next year – the Democrats, the Republicans, or does it make no difference?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Democrats 40% 85% 29% 5% 38% 42% 38% 40% 41%
Republicans 47% 9% 47% 83% 50% 45% 51% 49% 43%
No difference 13% 7% 23% 12% 13% 13% 11% 11% 16%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

[QUESTIONS 9 AND10 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general opinion of the Democratic party favorable or unfavorable?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 40% 82% 27% 9% 36% 43% 39% 39% 41%
Unfavorable 54% 15% 61% 85% 60% 48% 56% 57% 50%
No opinion 7% 3% 12% 6% 4% 9% 5% 5% 9%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

  1. Is your general opinion of the Republican party favorable or unfavorable?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 38% 9% 26% 74% 38% 38% 40% 37% 38%
Unfavorable 53% 88% 60% 16% 57% 50% 56% 55% 51%
No opinion 9% 3% 14% 11% 5% 12% 5% 8% 11%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

  1. Is your general opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 37% 8% 40% 63% 41% 34% 40% 40% 34%
Unfavorable 51% 84% 46% 23% 51% 51% 49% 51% 51%
No opinion 12% 8% 14% 15% 8% 15% 12% 9% 15%
Unwtd N

670

238 194 238 426 244 168 190

312

 

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.  The poll was conducted on October 4-6, 2010 with a random sample of 670 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District.  The sample was drawn from a list of households with voters who cast ballots in at least two of the last four general elections and further screened for those who say they are either “certain” or “likely” to vote in this November’s election.  The voter list was obtained from Aristotle, Inc. and automated voice interviewing services were provided by Survey USA in Clifton, New Jersey.

For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS
Likely Voter Sample (weighted)

Household
Registration

Self-Reported
Party ID
Gender Age

Race

40% Democrat 35% Democrat 48% Male 24% 18-44

90% White, non-Hispanic

52% Republican 38% Republican 52% Female 35% 45-59

10% Other

  8% Other 27% Independent   41% 60+  

 

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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