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Monmouth University Polling Institute

CD06: Little Narrows Gap

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Republican trails incumbent by 7 points

The race for New Jersey's 6 th  Congressional District just got closer.  Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone holds a 7 point lead over Tea Party-backed Republican Anna Little, 52% to 45%, according to the Monmouth University Poll .  A poll taken three weeks ago found the incumbent ahead by a 53% to 41% margin among likely voters in this district.

"Anna Little's gains have come from a tremendous grassroots effort in her home region of Monmouth County.  Frank Pallone will need to bet on a strong turnout in more Democratic areas of this district to fend off this challenge," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

In the Monmouth County portion of the district, Little leads Pallone by 52% to 45%.  Three weeks ago, Little had 47% to Pallone's 49% here.  However, the incumbent continues to hold a sizable 58% to 37% lead in the other parts of the district, including urban strongholds in Middlesex and Union Counties.  This is similar to his 58% to 33% showing here in the October 6 th  Monmouth University Poll.

Little has increased her lead among independent voters - 58% to 37% now, compared to 51% to 38% three weeks ago.  She holds on to 86% of the Republican vote, while Pallone takes 88% of the Democratic vote.

Voters who report already casting their ballots by mail make up about 7% of the total likely voter sample.  The margin for these early voters matches the overall vote total at 52% Pallone and 45% Little.

Congressman Frank Pallone's job performance rating among likely voters in this district stands at 45% approve to 43% disapprove.  His approval number is basically the same as three weeks ago when it was 46%, but his disapproval number is up from 36%.

Pallone garners personal ratings of 45% favorable to 39% unfavorable, compared to 48% to 32% three weeks ago.  By comparison, 38% of voters give Little a favorable rating (up from 33% three weeks ago) and 31% unfavorable (up from 22%).  About 3-in-10 (31%) have no opinion of the Republican challenger, which is down from 45% three weeks ago.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 647 likely voters from October 22 to 25, 2010.  This sample has a margin of error of ±  3.9 percent.

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

1.     If the election for United States Congress from New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District were today, would you vote for Anna Little the Republican, Frank Pallone the Democrat, or some other candidate?   [At this moment, do you lean toward Anna Little or lean toward Frank Pallone?]  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED]

2.     Is your general opinion of Anna Little favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Anna Little?  

3.     Is your general opinion of Frank Pallone favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Frank Pallone?

4.     Do you approve or disapprove of the job Frank Pallone is doing as your Congressman?

5.     Are things in the United States going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

6.     Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

7.     Who would you rather see in control of Congress next year – the Democrats, the Republicans, or does it make no difference?

[QUESTIONS 8 AND 9 WERE ROTATED]

8.     Is your general opinion of the Democratic party favorable or unfavorable?  

9.     Is your general opinion of the Republican party favorable or unfavorable?

10.   Is your general opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.  The poll was conducted on October 22-25, 2010 with a random sample of 647 likely voters in New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District.  The sample was drawn from a list of households with voters who cast ballots in at least two of the last four general elections and further screened for those who say they are either “certain” or “likely” to vote in this November’s election.  The voter list was obtained from Aristotle, Inc. and automated voice interviewing services were provided by Survey USA in Clifton, New Jersey. 

For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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- Monmouth University Polling Institute