In the election for New Jersey's 6th Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone holds a 12 point lead over Tea Party-backed Republican Anna Little. The Monmouth University Poll finds Pallone leading Little by a 53% to 41% margin among likely voters in this district.
"A 12 point lead may look comfortable, but not when you consider the fact that Pallone regularly wins reelection by more than 30 points," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "District demographics are the key to this race. Little does well in independent-minded parts of the district. The question is whether it will be enough to overcome the built-in Democratic advantage here."
Pallone and Little are basically tied 49% to 47% in the Monmouth County half of the district, but Pallone has a sizable 58% to 33% lead in the other half, which includes urban strongholds in Middlesex and Union counties.
Little actually leads by 51% to 38% among self-identified independent voters in this district, but, so far, it is not enough to overcome the Democrats more than 2-to-1 registration edge over Republicans in New Jersey's 6 th .
Congressman Frank Pallone's job performance rating among likely voters in his district stands at 46% approve to 36% disapprove. He also garners personal ratings of 48% favorable to 32% unfavorable. By comparison, 33% of voters give Little a favorable rating and 22% are unfavorable, with nearly half (45%) offering no opinion on the Highlands Borough Mayor.
Although 61% of New Jersey 6 th District voters think the country is on the wrong track, opinion is divided on President Obama's job performance - 48% approve to 47% disapprove. Working in incumbent Pallone's favor is the finding that more voters prefer to see the Democrats (47%) rather than the Republicans (37%) in control of Congress next year.
The Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 47% of voters in New Jersey's 6th and unfavorably by a nearly equal 45%. However, the Republican Party fares worse at 34% favorable to 57% unfavorable. The Tea Party garners ratings similar to the GOP - 38% favorable to 51% unfavorable.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 643 likely voters from October 2 to 5, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of ± 3.9 percent.
The questions referred to in this release are as follows:
1. If the election for United States Congress from New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District were today, would you vote for Anna Little the Republican, Frank Pallone the Democrat, or some other candidate? [At this moment, do you lean toward Anna Little or lean toward Frank Pallone?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED]
2. Is your general opinion of Anna Little favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Anna Little?
3. Is your general opinion of Frank Pallone favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Frank Pallone?
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Frank Pallone is doing as your Congressman?
5. Are things in the United States going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
7. Who would you rather see in control of Congress next year – the Democrats, the Republicans, or does it make no difference?
[QUESTIONS 8 AND 9 WERE ROTATED]
8. Is your general opinion of the Democratic party favorable or unfavorable?
9. Is your general opinion of the Republican party favorable or unfavorable?
10. Is your general opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey. The poll was conducted on October 2-5, 2010 with a random sample of 643 likely voters in New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District. The sample was drawn from a list of households with voters who cast ballots in at least two of the last four general elections and further screened for those who say they are either “certain” or “likely” to vote in this November’s election. The voter list was obtained from Aristotle, Inc. and automated voice interviewing services were provided by Survey USA in Clifton, New Jersey.
For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.
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