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CD06: Pallone v. Little

Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2010

Pallone holds double-digit lead, but not as large as prior margins


In the election for New Jersey’s 6th  Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone holds a 12 point lead over Tea Party-backed Republican Anna Little.  The Monmouth University Poll  finds Pallone leading Little by a 53% to 41% margin among likely voters in this district.

“A 12 point lead may look comfortable, but not when you consider the fact that Pallone regularly wins reelection by more than 30 points,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “District demographics are the key to this race.  Little does well in independent-minded parts of the district.  The question is whether it will be enough to overcome the built-in Democratic advantage here.”

Pallone and Little are basically tied 49% to 47% in the Monmouth County half of the district, but Pallone has a sizable 58% to 33% lead in the other half, which includes urban strongholds in Middlesex and Union counties.

Little actually leads by 51% to 38% among self-identified independent voters in this district, but, so far, it is not enough to overcome the Democrats more than 2-to-1 registration edge over Republicans in New Jersey’s 6 th .

Congressman Frank Pallone’s job performance rating among likely voters in his district stands at 46% approve to 36% disapprove.  He also garners personal ratings of 48% favorable to 32% unfavorable.  By comparison, 33% of voters give Little a favorable rating and 22% are unfavorable, with nearly half (45%) offering no opinion on the Highlands Borough Mayor.

Although 61% of New Jersey 6 th  District voters think the country is on the wrong track, opinion is divided on President Obama’s job performance – 48% approve to 47% disapprove.  Working in incumbent Pallone’s favor is the finding that more voters prefer to see the Democrats (47%) rather than the Republicans (37%) in control of Congress next year.

The Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 47% of voters in New Jersey’s 6th  and unfavorably by a nearly equal 45%.  However, the Republican Party fares worse at 34% favorable to 57% unfavorable.  The Tea Party garners ratings similar to the GOP – 38% favorable to 51% unfavorable.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 643 likely voters from October 2 to 5, 2010.  This sample has a margin of error of ±  3.9 percent.

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

 

  1. If the election for United States Congress from New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District were today, would you vote for Anna Little the Republican, Frank Pallone the Democrat, or some other candidate? [At this moment, do you lean toward Anna Little or lean toward Frank Pallone?]  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Anna Little 41% 8% 51% 83% 44% 38% 41% 43% 37%
Frank Pallone 53% 89% 38% 13% 50% 56% 49% 53% 56%
Other – Undecided 6% 3% 11% 4% 6% 6% 10% 4% 7%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general opinion of Anna Little favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Anna Little?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 33% 7% 44% 64% 38% 28% 35% 32% 33%
Unfavorable 22% 37% 15% 6% 23% 22% 21% 21% 24%
No opinion 45% 56% 41% 30% 39% 50% 45% 47% 42%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

  1.       Is your general opinion of Frank Pallone favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of Frank Pallone?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 48% 78% 37% 12% 45% 51% 40% 49% 53%
Unfavorable 32% 8% 43% 58% 37% 28% 34% 31% 33%
No opinion 20% 14% 19% 30% 18% 21% 26% 21% 14%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Frank Pallone is doing as your Congressman?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Approve 46% 75% 34% 13% 44% 48% 46% 45% 47%
Disapprove 36% 9% 51% 63% 44% 29% 38% 38% 33%
Not sure 18% 16% 15% 24% 12% 23% 16% 17% 19%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

  1. Are things in the United States going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Right direction 34% 57% 24% 7% 32% 36% 31% 34% 35%
Wrong track 61% 36% 73% 90% 64% 59% 65% 62% 59%
Not sure 5% 7% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Approve 48% 76% 37% 14% 46% 50% 48% 48% 47%
Disapprove 47% 17% 58% 82% 50% 43% 46% 46% 47%
Not sure 6% 7% 5% 4% 4% 8% 6% 6% 5%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

  1. Who would you rather see in control of Congress next year – the Democrats, the Republicans, or does it make no difference?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Democrats 47% 85% 29% 8% 45% 48% 45% 46% 49%
Republicans 37% 7% 42% 82% 40% 34% 39% 35% 37%
No difference 16% 9% 29% 10% 15% 18% 16% 19% 14%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

[QUESTIONS 8 AND 9 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general opinion of the Democratic party favorable or unfavorable?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 47% 85% 26% 10% 42% 51% 44% 46% 48%
Unfavorable 45% 11% 60% 84% 52% 39% 46% 44% 46%
No opinion 8% 4% 15% 6% 7% 10% 10% 10% 6%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

  1. Is your general opinion of the Republican party favorable or unfavorable?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 34% 11% 34% 79% 37% 32% 38% 31% 35%
Unfavorable 57% 84% 52% 15% 57% 56% 56% 57% 57%
No opinion 9% 5% 15% 6% 6% 12% 5% 12% 8%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

  1. Is your general opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?
 

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-44 45-59

60+

Favorable 38% 15% 44% 70% 40% 35% 40% 34% 40%
Unfavorable 51% 76% 43% 19% 53% 49% 46% 53% 52%
No opinion 11% 9% 13% 11% 7% 15% 14% 13% 8%
Unwtd N

643

242 247 154 382 261 125 274

244

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.  The poll was conducted on October 2-5, 2010 with a random sample of 643 likely voters in New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District.  The sample was drawn from a list of households with voters who cast ballots in at least two of the last four general elections and further screened for those who say they are either “certain” or “likely” to vote in this November’s election.  The voter list was obtained from Aristotle, Inc. and automated voice interviewing services were provided by Survey USA in Clifton, New Jersey.

For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS
Likely Voter Sample (weighted)

Household
Registration

Self-Reported
Party ID
Gender Age

Race

53% Democrat 41% Democrat 49% Male 24% 18-44

81% White, non-Hispanic

23% Republican 22% Republican 51% Female 39% 45-59

19% Other

24% Other 37% Independent   37% 60+  

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables