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Obama Takes Summer Lead in Jersey

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Economy and Iraq Trump Doubts About Democrat’s Religious Ties


Barack Obama holds a sizeable lead over John McCain among New Jersey voters as the presidential candidates lay the groundwork for the fall contest.  The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll  finds that 42% of registered voters prefer the Democrat to 28% supporting the Republican, or a 48% to 34% margin if undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are included.  Among likely voters, Obama leads McCain by 50% to 36% including leaners.

Each candidate currently garners the support of 3-in-4 of their fellow partisans – 75% of Democrats support Obama and 74% of Republicans support McCain.  Independents are split 30% for Obama and 26% for McCain, with 33% on the fence and 10% saying they may vote for a third party candidate.

The poll found that 4-in-10 registered voters could be considered uncommitted or “swing” voters, which is not unusual at this stage of a presidential race.  This includes 23% who are undecided, 6% who are considering a third party candidate and 11% who choose a candidate but say they could change their mind.  While this indicates possible volatility, the poll also found limited opportunities for McCain to sway those swing voters.

The one area where the poll found potential voter doubt about the Democratic candidate was in reference to religion – or more accurately the views of religious leaders close to Obama.  Nearly half of Garden State voters (46%) say they are comfortable with Obama’s personal religious views (just 21% are uncomfortable), a similar number (50%) say they are uncomfortable with the views of religious leaders he has been associated with (with 22% comfortable).  [ Note:About 8% of New Jersey voters incorrectly assume Obama is Muslim, which is slightly lower than in most national polls .]

And while John McCain has had his share of issues with outspoken conservative religious leaders who support his campaign, this does not seem to translate into the same level of concern.  Overall, 39% of New Jersey voters are comfortable with McCain’s own religious views (compared to 15% who are uncomfortable) and about equal number are comfortable (29%) as are uncomfortable (25%) with the views of religious leaders who support or are close to McCain.

“It appears that the one area where McCain may be able to gain traction in New Jersey is if he can make the campaign a referendum on Obama’s personal judgment,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “At this time, though, that appears to be a slim hope.  Everything else on the electoral horizon benefits the Democrat.”

Currently, Obama leads among practically every demographic group in New Jersey and registers especially strong support among women (46%-25%) and voters under the age of 35 (54%-23%).  He also leads among men (39%-32%), and voters age 35 to 54 (39%-33%) or 55 and older (39%-27%).

As may be expected, the Democrat has strong support among black voters (85%-3%), but he splits white voters with McCain (34%-34%).  For perspective, though, when John Kerry won New Jersey by 7 points in 2004, he actually lost the white vote by 8 points, according to the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll.

Obama also has a natural advantage on the issues which most concern voters.  When asked to name their top one or two issues, voters hone in on the economy (53%) and the war in Iraq (47%).  Compared to a poll taken last fall, there has been little change in the number of voters who consider Iraq a top concern.  However, the economy has now skyrocketed into the top slot, after being mentioned by just 20% in September 2007.  Among voters who name the economy as their top concern, Obama leads McCain by 44% to 26%.  Among those who name Iraq, the Democrat’s advantage is 49% to 22%.

Among the other issues mentioned by New Jersey voters, only health care (9%), gas prices (9%), terrorism (6%), foreign policy (6%), and federal taxes (6%) crack the 5% threshold.  Notably, concerns about health care have dropped substantially from the 45% level measured in September 2007.

The Democrat also benefits from an energized party base.  Overall, half (50%) of New Jersey’s electorate say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than they have been in the past, compared to 29% who are less enthusiastic and 19% who feel the same level of enthusiasm.  However, Democrats are significantly more enthusiastic (66% more to 16% less) than Republicans (39% more to 37% less).  Independents are split (39% more and 39% less).

“We’re seeing a clear enthusiasm gap between party bases.  This could result in a differential party turnout on November 4 th  that benefits Democratic candidates in down-ballot races,” said Murray.

The poll also found high personal ratings for Senator Obama – 56% of voters have a favorable opinion of him compared to 19% unfavorable.  John McCain’s personal ratings are 48% favorable to 25% unfavorable.  While this marks an 9-point improvement in the Arizona Senator’s favorables since April, it is still lower than those attained by his Illinois colleague.

Other personal issues which have attracted national attention – McCain’s age and Obama’s race – aren’t having much of an impact on New Jersey’s electorate.

John McCain, who turns 72 next month, would be the oldest first-term president if he were to win in November.  Currently, just 21% of Garden State voters think he is too old to be effective as president.  Furthermore, just 28% of voters think that 72 year old is probably too old for the office in general, suggesting little room to make this more of a campaign issue.

Turning to the issue of Obama’s race, just 15% of voters say the fact that he is black would impact his presidential decisions.  Nearly half (46%) this group say the impact would be positive for the country while a similar number (41%) say the effect would be negative or mixed.  Further analysis suggests that latent racial attitudes, as measured in this question, would only lessen Obama’s current support level in New Jersey by 2 or 3 percentage points at most.

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll  was conducted by telephone with 874 New Jersey registered voters July 17-21, 2008.  This sample has a margin of error of ± 3.3 percent.  This report also includes analysis on a smaller group of 698 “likely voters” with a ±  3.7 percent margin of error.   The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the Gannett New Jersey newspaper group (Asbury Park Press, Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune).

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

  1. As you may know, there will be an election for President in November. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election – a lot, some, a little, or none at all?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

A lot 76% 90% 79% 70% 82% 76% 75% 70% 78% 77% 76% 80%
Some 16% 8% 13% 19% 13% 16% 15% 23% 14% 12% 15% 13%
A little 6% 1% 7% 6% 4% 5% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 4%
None at all 2% 0% 1% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 2% 3%
(VOL) Don’t know 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Unwtd N

874

698 332 293 220 415 459 140 397 321 723 88
  1. If the election for President was held today, would you vote for John McCain the Republican, Barack Obama the Democrat, or some other candidate? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

McCain 28% 32% 6% 26% 74% 32% 25% 23% 33% 27% 34% 3%
Obama 42% 45% 75% 30% 8% 39% 46% 54% 39% 39% 34% 85%
Other 6% 3% 3% 10% 3% 7% 4% 6% 4% 7% 6% 4%
(VOL) Won’t vote 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
(VOL) Undecided 23% 20% 16% 33% 15% 22% 24% 18% 24% 26% 26% 8%
Unwtd N

874

698 332 293 220 415 459 140 397 321 723

88

 

Presidential Vote with “Leaners”

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters

McCain 34% 36%
Obama 48% 50%
Other 3% 2%
(VOL) Won’t vote 0% 0%
(VOL) Undecided 14% 12%
Unwtd N

874

698

 

Composite Table: Strength of Vote Choice

2.  If the election for President was held today, would you vote for [ROTATE] John McCain the Republican, Barack Obama the Democrat, or                     some other candidate?
3.   At this moment do you lean more towards McCain or more towards Obama?

4.  Are you very sure about voting for [Name]; or might you change your mind before Election Day?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

Dem

Ind

Rep

Sure McCain 24% 28% 5% 22% 64%
Weak McCain 4% 4% 2% 4% 10%
Lean McCain 6% 5% 4% 9% 7%
Undecided- Other 17% 13% 10% 26% 7%
Lean Obama 6% 5% 6% 8% 4%
Weak Obama 7% 7% 10% 8% 2%
Sure Obama 36% 38% 65% 22% 6%
Unwtd N

871

696 332 291 219

[QUESTIONS 5 AND 6 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general impression of Barack Obama favorable or unfavorable, or don’t you really have an opinion about him?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Favorable 56% 59% 73% 53% 33% 55% 56% 68% 53% 50% 52% 85%
Unfavorable 19% 21% 8% 20% 39% 22% 16% 13% 21% 20% 23% 1%
No opinion 26% 20% 19% 27% 27% 23% 27% 19% 26% 30% 25% 14%
Unwtd N

874

698 332 293 220 415 459 140 397 321 723

88

 

  TREND:

July
2008

April
2008

Favorable 56% 58%
Unfavorable 19% 27%
No opinion 26% 15%
Unwtd N

874

720

               

  1. Is your general impression of John McCain favorable or unfavorable, or don’t you really have an opinion about him?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Favorable 48% 51% 30% 49% 83% 53% 44% 45% 49% 51% 56% 13%
Unfavorable 25% 27% 41% 20% 9% 24% 26% 24% 27% 25% 22% 44%
No opinion 27% 21% 29% 32% 9% 23% 29% 31% 24% 24% 22% 43%
Unwtd N

874

698 332 293 220 415 459 140 397 321 723

88

 

  TREND:

July
2008

April
2008

Favorable 48% 39%
Unfavorable 25% 45%
No opinion 27% 16%
Unwtd N

874

720

  1. What are the one or two most important issues in determining how you will vote for president?

[Note: Results add to more than 100% because multiple responses were accepted]

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

War in Iraq 47% 47% 56% 46% 34% 47% 47% 46% 49% 47% 50% 50%
Terrorism,  Homeland security 6% 7% 4% 5% 14% 10% 3% 5% 8% 6% 7% 0%
Foreign policy,  U.S. relations 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 4% 6% 7% 3% 6% 0%
Federal, Income Taxes 6% 6% 3% 6% 10% 6% 5% 8% 5% 5% 6% 1%
State (Property) Taxes 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% 4%
Economy, creating jobs, cost of
living
53% 57% 53% 55% 48% 55% 51% 51% 57% 50% 53% 57%
Gas prices, energy 9% 9% 7% 8% 14% 11% 7% 10% 8% 7% 11% 4%
Health care and prescription drug
costs
9% 9% 11% 8% 7% 5% 13% 12% 8% 9% 9% 17%
Social security 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% 3% 1% 1%
Education, schools 3% 3% 3% 5% 1% 3% 4% 7% 3% 0% 2% 8%
Environment, global warming 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 3% 3% 0%
Social issues:  Abortion, gay
marriage, stem cells, morality, etc.
3% 3% 3% 1% 8% 3% 4% 2% 5% 2% 2% 1%
Immigration 3% 3% 1% 3% 5% 2% 3% 5% 2% 2% 3% 0%
Budget deficit 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Ethics, corruption, cleaning up
government
4% 4% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3% 1% 3% 7% 4% 4%
Other 7% 8% 4% 10% 8% 6% 8% 4% 6% 11% 7% 8%
Nothing, Don’t know 8% 5% 9% 7% 5% 4% 11% 9% 7% 8% 6% 10%
Unwtd N

874

698 332 293 220 415 459 140 397 321 723 88
TREND: July
2008
Sept.
2007*
April
2007*
War in Iraq 47% 51% 52%
Terrorism,  Homeland security 6% 9% 9%
Foreign policy,  U.S. relations 6% 4% 5%
Federal, Income Taxes 6% 8% 13%
State (Property) Taxes 3% 6% 5%
Economy, creating jobs, cost of living 53% 20% 19%
Gas prices, energy 9% 1% 1%
Health care and prescription drug costs 9% 45% 23%
Social security 1% 5% 5%
Education, schools 3% 6% 8%
Environment, global warming 2% 3% 5%
Social issues:  Abortion, gay marriage, stem cells, morality, etc. 3% 3% 3%
Immigration 3% 10% 8%
Budget deficit 1% 4% 3%
Ethics, corruption, cleaning up government 4% 3% 3%
Other 7% 2% 4%
Nothing, Don’t know 8% 5% 7%
Unwtd N

874

1091

1069

*  Question wording in 2007 polls was:  “In your opinion, what are the most important one or two issues that the candidates for president should talk about?”

  1. How closely have you been following the campaign for president so far – very closely, somewhat closely, or not very closely?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Very closely 51% 62% 50% 51% 52% 53% 49% 41% 51% 59% 50% 62%
Somewhat closely 39% 34% 41% 37% 40% 37% 41% 49% 38% 31% 42% 34%
Not very closely 10% 4% 9% 12% 8% 10% 11% 10% 11% 10% 8% 4%
Unwtd N

874

698 332 293 220 415 459 140 397 321 723

88

  1. Compared to past elections, are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

More enthusiastic 50% 53% 66% 39% 39% 49% 51% 62% 47% 45% 43% 83%
Less enthusiastic 29% 25% 16% 39% 37% 30% 29% 17% 30% 37% 34% 7%
(VOL) Same 19% 20% 15% 20% 23% 19% 18% 19% 20% 17% 21% 9%
(VOL) Don’t know 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1%
Unwtd N

874

698 332 293 220 415 459 140 397 321 723

88

 

  1. Do you think the campaign between Obama and McCain is more likely to be positive where the candidates talk about the issues or more likely to be negative where the candidate’s attack each other?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Positive 49% 50% 47% 48% 55% 47% 50% 52% 49% 45% 50% 44%
Negative 37% 36% 41% 35% 31% 38% 35% 38% 36% 36% 36% 40%
(VOL) Both 7% 7% 6% 8% 7% 8% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 9%
(VOL) Don’t know 8% 7% 5% 9% 6% 7% 9% 3% 8% 12% 8% 7%
Unwtd N

874

698 332 293 220 415 459 140 397 321 723

88

 

 [Question 11 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. In general, do you agree or disagree that someone 72 years of age is probably too old to be an effective president?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Agree 28% 27% 43% 24% 9% 23% 33% 26% 25% 34% 25% 42%
Disagree 65% 67% 49% 69% 88% 72% 59% 67% 69% 62% 69% 49%
(VOL) Depends 3% 3% 4% 4% 1% 3% 4% 2% 4% 3% 3% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 4% 4% 1% 2% 4% 5% 3% 1% 3% 4%
Unwtd N

435

355 160 154 106 199 236 59 199 169 354

46

[Question 12 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. Do you agree or disagree that John McCain is too old to be an effective president?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Agree 21% 18% 27% 23% 7% 16% 25% 27% 20% 16% 17% 43%
Disagree 73% 74% 66% 72% 89% 78% 68% 66% 73% 79% 77% 45%
(VOL) Don’t know 6% 7% 6% 5% 4% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 12%
Unwtd N

439

343 172 139 114 216 223 81 198 152 369

42

  1. Do you think the fact that Barack Obama is black would have an impact on the decisions he would make as president, or not?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Yes 15% 15% 15% 11% 21% 17% 13% 17% 14% 13% 13% 20%
No 79% 79% 81% 83% 72% 77% 81% 80% 81% 78% 80% 74%
(VOL) Don’t know 6% 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 3% 5% 9% 6% 6%
Unwtd N

874

698 332 293 220 415 459 140 397 321 723 88

 

[The following question was asked only of those who said “Yes” to Q13 moe= ± 8.9%]

  1. On the whole, would this impact tend to be more positive or more negative for the country?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters

Positive 46% 43%
Negative 33% 37%
(VOL) Both 2% 3%
(VOL) Neither 6% 7%
(VOL) Don’t know 13% 11%
Unwtd N

121

97

[Question 15 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. Do you think religious faith plays an important role in John McCain’s life, or not?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Yes, important 28% 27% 24% 26% 39% 25% 31% 34% 29% 25% 27% 36%
No, not important 38% 38% 44% 40% 28% 39% 38% 38% 40% 36% 40% 25%
(VOL) Don’t know 33% 35% 32% 34% 34% 36% 31% 28% 31% 39% 33% 40%
Unwtd N

435

355 160 154 106 199 236 59 199 169 354

46

 

[Question 16 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. Are you personally comfortable or not comfortable with John McCain’s religious views?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Comfortable 39% 38% 31% 35% 55% 38% 39% 47% 34% 40% 39% 27%
Not comfortable 15% 15% 21% 13% 8% 17% 13% 13% 13% 19% 15% 18%
(VOL) Don’t know 46% 48% 48% 52% 37% 44% 48% 40% 53% 40% 46% 56%
Unwtd N 435 355 160 154 106 199 236 59 199 169 354 46

 

[Question 17 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. Are you comfortable or not comfortable with the views of those religious leaders who have been close to John McCain or support his campaign?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Comfortable 29% 30% 27% 21% 47% 26% 31% 33% 29% 27% 26% 20%
Not comfortable 25% 26% 36% 22% 12% 29% 22% 29% 21% 29% 27% 32%
(VOL) Don’t know 46% 44% 36% 57% 41% 44% 47% 38% 50% 44% 47% 47%
Unwtd N

435

355 160 154 106 199 236 59 199 169 354

46

 

[Question 18 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. What religion do you think John McCain is, if any?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Christian, Protestant 48% 49% 46% 50% 49% 51% 45% 56% 43% 49% 51% 31%
Catholic 10% 8% 9% 8% 16% 11% 10% 16% 13% 4% 11% 10%
Muslim 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jewish 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 3%
None 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 1% 3%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(VOL) Don’t know 40% 41% 42% 42% 34% 37% 43% 26% 44% 44% 37% 52%
Unwtd N

435

355 160 154 106 199 236 59 199 169 354

46

 

[Question 19 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. Do you think religious faith plays an important role in Barack Obama’s life, or not?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Yes, important 40% 45% 42% 41% 37% 40% 41% 37% 35% 49% 39% 64%
No, not important 37% 34% 38% 33% 44% 39% 36% 48% 36% 29% 37% 30%
(VOL) Don’t know 22% 21% 19% 26% 19% 21% 24% 15% 28% 22% 24% 6%
Unwtd N

439

343 172 139 114 216 223 81 198 152 369

42

 

[Question 20 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. Are you personally comfortable or not comfortable with Barack Obama’s religious views?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Comfortable 46% 47% 60% 39% 34% 44% 47% 53% 43% 42% 44% 67%
Not comfortable 21% 23% 12% 20% 41% 20% 22% 17% 25% 19% 23% 7%
(VOL) Don’t know 33% 30% 28% 41% 25% 35% 32% 31% 32% 39% 33% 26%
Unwtd N

439

343 172 139 114 216 223 81 198 152 369

42

 

[Question 21 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. Are you comfortable or not comfortable with the views of those religious leaders who have been close to Barack Obama or support his campaign?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Comfortable 22% 19% 31% 20% 11% 26% 18% 34% 17% 16% 18% 43%
Not comfortable 50% 55% 39% 51% 69% 49% 51% 40% 56% 53% 54% 34%
(VOL) Don’t know 28% 27% 30% 28% 19% 24% 31% 26% 27% 31% 28% 22%
Unwtd N

439

343 172 139 114 216 223 81 198 152 369

42

 

[Question 22 was asked of a random half-sample: moe= ± 4.7%]

  1. What religion do you think Barack Obama is, if any?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18 to
34
35 to
54
55+ White

Black

Christian, Protestant 51% 58% 55% 50% 52% 52% 51% 53% 50% 50% 54% 45%
Catholic 2% 2% 3% 0% 3% 3% 1% 4% 1% 0% 2% 0%
Muslim 8% 7% 8% 7% 8% 9% 7% 7% 9% 5% 8% 5%
Jewish 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
None 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(VOL) Don’t know 39% 33% 34% 41% 38% 35% 41% 33% 39% 44% 35% 51%
Unwtd N

439

343 172 139 114 216 223 81 198 152 369

42

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted and analyzed by the Monmouth University Polling Institute research staff.  The telephone interviews were collected by Braun Research on July 17-21, 2008 with a statewide random sample of 874 registered voters. For results based on this voter sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS

Registered Voter Sample (weighted)

42% Dem 46% Male 26% 18-34

71% White

33% Ind 54% Female 42% 35-54

13% Black

25% Rep   32% 55+

10% Hispanic

     

  6% Asian/Other

It is the Monmouth University Polling Institute’s policy to conduct surveys of all adult New Jersey residents, including voters and non-voters, on issues which affect the state.  Specific voter surveys are conducted when appropriate during election cycles

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables