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Monmouth University Polling Institute

Clinton Holds Huge Primary Edge

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Booker as Veep would neither help nor hurt the ticket

West Long Branch, NJ  - Coming off a bitter defeat in Indiana, Hillary Clinton is in position to get a healthy dose of Garden State love when the primary season ends in June.  The Monmouth University Poll  gives Clinton a nearly 2-to-1 lead in New Jersey's primary.  The poll also finds that most Democratic voters feel that picking Sen. Cory Booker as her running mate wouldn't give her campaign much of a strategic advantage.

Clinton has the support of 60% of likely Democratic voters in New Jersey while Sanders's support stands at 32%.  Clinton holds a lead among nearly every demographic group in the electorate, including voters age 50 and older (70% to 25%), voters under 50 (51% to 38%), black voters (64% to 24%), white voters (60% to 34%), and women (69% to 22%).  The only group where Sanders is competitive is among Democratic men, earning 45% to 49% for Clinton.

"Despite her loss in Indiana, it looks like Clinton is on target to corral the delegates she needs for the nomination.  New Jersey is shaping up to make a significant contribution to her final total," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

As Clinton slogs her way to the nomination, speculation around possible running mates has intensified.  One possibility bandied about by the media is Booker, the junior U.S. Senator from New Jersey.  While few of the state's Democrats think he would be a bad choice, many say he doesn't necessarily give Clinton a boost in November.  Overall, 33% say Booker in the vice presidential slot would help a Clinton ticket while only 10% say he would hurt her chances.  However, nearly half (48%) say adding Booker to the ticket wouldn't matter either way.

"New Jersey Democrats don't have anything against Booker. They just think Clinton might want to look elsewhere for a running mate who could give her a strategic edge," said Murray.

Garden State voters have become used to being treated as an afterthought in the presidential nomination process.  With Sanders vowing to carry the fight to the convention, though, the state's Democrats are holding out hope that they might actually see some campaign activity.  Nearly two-thirds say it is likely that either of the party's presidential candidates will actually campaign in New Jersey in the coming weeks, including 28% who say this is very likely and 37% who say this is somewhat likely.  Just 20% say it is unlikely that the state will see any presidential campaign activity from the Democrats.

Even if Clinton is able to get the delegates she needs to secure the nomination before June 7 th , 81% of likely Democratic voters say they will still turn out to vote in New Jersey's primary, including 84% of Clinton supporters and 77% of Sanders supporters.  Just 16% say they might stay home if the race is effectively over by then.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from May 1 to 3, 2016 with 301 New Jersey voters likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary.  This sample has a margin of error of ± 5.7 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. 

 

DATA TABLES

 

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

 

  1. If the Republican primary election for president was today, would you vote for – [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
May

2016

Donald Trump 70%
John Kasich 15%
Ted Cruz 11%
(VOL) Other 0%
(VOL) Undecided 5%
(n) (301)

 

  1. Which of the following best describes where your decision stands at this moment: I am completely decided on which candidate I will support, I have a strong preference right now but I am willing to consider other candidates, I have a slight preference among a group of candidates I like, or I am really undecided among a number of candidates?
May

2016

Already voted 1%
Completely decided 55%
Strong preference 26%
Slight preference 6%
Undecided 11%

 

  1. If Donald Trump became the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton became the Democratic nominee, who would you vote for in the general election in November – Trump or Clinton or an independent candidate, or would you not vote for president?
May

2016

Donald Trump 79%
Hillary Clinton 6%
Independent candidate 6%
Would not vote 3%
(VOL) Undecided 6%

 

In addition to voting for a presidential candidate, you will also be asked to vote for a slate of convention delegates.

[QUESTIONS 4 THROUGH 6 WERE ROTATED]

 

  1. Are you more likely or less likely to vote for a delegate slate headed by Chris Christie, or does this have no impact on your delegate vote?
May

2016

More likely 34%
Less likely 13%
No impact 47%
(VOL) Don’t know 6%

 

  1. Are you more likely or less likely to vote for a delegate slate headed by Steve Lonegan, or does this have no impact on your delegate vote?
May

2016

More likely 8%
Less likely 7%
No impact 76%
(VOL) Don’t know 10%

 

  1. Are you more likely or less likely to vote for a delegate slate headed by Christie Todd Whitman, or does this have no impact on your delegate vote?
May

2016

More likely 13%
Less likely 12%
No impact 67%
(VOL) Don’t know 8%

 

  1. Do you think it would help or hurt Donald Trump if he chose Chris Christie to be his running mate, or do you think it wouldn’t matter either way?
May

2016

Help 15%
Hurt 41%
Wouldn’t matter 37%
(VOL) Don’t know 6%

 

The Monmouth University Poll  was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from May 1 to 3, 2016 with a statewide random sample of New Jersey voters drawn from a list of Democratic and unaffiliated registered voters, who participated in a primary election in 2012, 2013 or 2014 or voted in two of the last three general elections or have registered since 2014, and indicate they will vote in the Democratic presidential primary on June 7, 2016.  The total sample of 301 likely voters includes 170 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 131 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list). For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
51% Male 11% 18-34 92% White
49% Female 30% 35-49

  0% Black

  35% 50-64

  6% Hispanic

  24% 65+

  2% Other

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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- Monmouth University Polling Institute