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Gov. Christie Ratings Shift, Still Positive

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Many see Rutgers-Camden, Rowan Merger as Political


Governor Christie’s job rating from New Jersey residents has slipped slightly, but hits the coveted 50% mark, according to the latest Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll .  At the same time, his grades on cost cutting, schools, and property taxes have notched up a bit.

Currently, Governor Christie earns a 51% approve to 35% disapprove job rating among all Garden State residents.  Among registered voters, his rating stands at 50% approve to 38% disapprove.  This registered voter approval number is down 5 points from the ratings he received in our February 2012 poll.

The gender gap in the governor’s ratings, which closed for a short time in the fall, has widened again.  Currently, 59% of men approve of Gov. Christie while 28% disapprove.  Among women, approval stands at 43% and disapproval at 42%.  On the other hand, his standing among public worker households has improved to 44% approve and 43% disapprove – up from 32% to 61% just a few months ago.

“There have been some changes in the governor’s job rating over the past two months.  Some groups have become more positive, while others have become more negative,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “Gov. Christie’s overall rating remains positive, so I’m not ready to say his ratings are slipping.  But this poll indicates that the political sands are shifting. He has skillfully navigated those shifts in the past.  We’ll be following these numbers to see if he can continue the positive track in public opinion he has maintained for the past year.”

Voter opinion of his performance on key issues is an important element as the governor looks toward his 2013 re-election bid.  The poll asked New Jerseyans to grade Gov. Christie’s performance on controlling costs and cutting waste, improving schools, and providing property tax relief.  The percentage of New Jerseyans giving the governor positive grades on these three issues is up between 8 and 13 points since last August, while the percent giving him negative grades is down between 6 and 10 points.

Gov. Christie gets his best grades in the area of controlling costs and cutting waste.  Nearly half the public give the governor a positive grade of A (18%) or B (29%), while just one-in-five give him a poor grade of D (11%) or F (10%).

He also does well on education.  Nearly 4-in-10 grade him an A (13%) or B (24%) compared to 3-in-10 who say he deserves a D (14%) or F (16%).  This marks the first time in Gov. Christie’s tenure where more New Jerseyans give him a positive rather than a negative grade on school improvement.

While the governor’s grades on handling property taxes have also improved over the past year, this remains a weaker area.  Currently, just under 3-in-10 residents give Gov. Christie an A (11%) or B (17%), while just under 4-in-10 give a D (16%) or F (21%) on his handling of the issue that prior polls have shown to be the state’s most pressing concern.  These grades are similar to the 31% A/B to 38% D/F split he received in a July 2010 poll early in his term.

Two competing tax cut proposals are currently vying for support in Trenton.  Gov. Christie has proposed a 10% across-the-board income tax cut, while Senate President Steve Sweeney has proposed a 10% property tax credit on residents’ income taxes.  When asked which one they prefer, New Jerseyans select the property tax credit by a 2-to-1 margin, 61% to 32% over the income tax cut.  There is no difference in these results by residents’ party identification.  [Note: These results reflect New Jerseyan’s initial reaction to the proposals based on how much they assume each will benefit them.  Moreover, the Monmouth poll question wording did NOT tie either of these proposals to the politicians proposing them, and therefore, the results do not reflect any “anchoring” that the public may attach to either plan’s sponsor in evaluating these proposals.]

A couple of other issues have been in the news recently that are indicative of the political climate’s shifting sands.  One involves the defunct Hudson River ARC Tunnel project which Gov. Christie canceled over a year ago.  This has been in the news again because of a General Accounting Office report which has been used to suggest that the governor’s projections of New Jersey’s share of the cost may have been overstated.  About 1-in-3 (35%) New Jerseyans are aware of this news.

Overall, 26% of New Jerseyans agree that the governor made the right call when he canceled the tunnel project while a similar 27% disagree.  Nearly half – 46% – have no opinion on this.  Among those who have heard the recent news reports, 37% back the governor’s decision while 43% think it was a bad choice.

Regarding the fallout from the GAO report, half (50%) the state thinks that Gov. Christie probably overstated the tunnel costs while just 26% say his projections were basically accurate.  Among those who have followed the recent news reports, 54% say his estimates were overstated compared to 31% who say they were accurate.

“During the first two years of his term, most New Jerseyans have given Gov. Christie credit for making tough choices.  With the 2013 election looming, it is likely that more issues will arise to dent the perception that he is above mere politics.  How the governor handles these challenges will have a significant impact on his future success,” said Murray.

The plan to restructure higher education in the state is another issue which led to a political firestorm.  The proposed merger of Rutgers University-New Brunswick and the UMDNJ medical school gets a thumbs up from 36% of state residents and a thumbs down from 20%.  Another 43% have no opinion.  In a February poll, shortly after the plan was introduced, 31% said it was a good idea to 13% who said it was not.  Opinion in the most affected Route 1 Corridor counties of Mercer, Middlesex, and Union is more positive – 48% say it is a good idea to just 14% who say it is a bad idea.  This is up from 35% good to 16% bad just two months ago.

The idea to fold the Rutgers-Camden campus into Rowan University, on the other hand, has generated greater opposition as residents hear more about it.  Currently, 23% of New Jerseyans say it is a good idea while 33% say it is a bad idea, and another 44% have no opinion.  In February, statewide opinion was split at 20% good idea to 22% bad idea.  Among those in the most affected Delaware Valley counties of Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester, opposition to the merger is higher – 25% call it a good idea, while nearly half – 47% – see it as a bad idea.  Two months ago, Delaware Valley opinion stood at 25% good idea to 36% bad idea.

Only 1-in-4 (26%) New Jerseyans say the merger of Rutgers-Camden and Rowan was proposed mainly to improve higher education in the Garden State.  More (45%) say that it was done mainly to benefit powerful political interests.  Another 3% say both considerations figured equally into the plan and another 26% offer no opinion.

The Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll  was conducted by telephone with 804 New Jersey adults from April 11 to 15, 2012.  This sample has a margin of error of ±  3.5 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the New Jersey Press Media newspaper group (Asbury Park Press, Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune).

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes No
Approve 51% 50% 54% 33% 54% 74% 59% 43% 44% 53%
Disapprove 35% 38% 25% 55% 28% 18% 28% 42% 43% 33%
(VOL) Don’t know 14% 12% 21% 12% 17% 8% 13% 15% 12% 14%
TREND: All adults April
2012
Feb.
2012
Oct.
2011
Aug.
2011
May
2011
Feb.
2011
Sept.
2010
July
2010
April
2010
Feb.
2010
Approve 51% 52% 54% 48% 47% 47% 45% 44% 41% 33%
Disapprove 35% 38% 38% 42% 49% 40% 38% 44% 44% 15%
(VOL) Don’t know 14% 10% 9% 9% 5% 12% 17% 12% 15% 52%
Unwtd N

804

803 817 802 807 801 801 801 804

803

TREND: Registered voters April
2012
Feb.
2012
Oct.
2011
Aug.
2011
May
2011
Feb.
2011
Sept.
2010
July
2010
April
2010
Feb.
2010
Approve 50% 55% 55% 50% 46% 49% 44% 45% 42% 31%
Disapprove 38% 37% 37% 41% 49% 41% 40% 43% 44% 15%
(VOL) Don’t know 12% 9% 8% 8% 5% 9% 16% 12% 13% 53%
Unwtd N

692

709 693 730 725 718 726 747 719

716

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the state legislature is doing?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

Approve 38% 37% 45% 43% 35% 38% 39% 37% 38% 39%
Disapprove 38% 41% 28% 34% 41% 37% 39% 38% 40% 37%
(VOL) Don’t know 24% 23% 27% 22% 24% 25% 22% 25% 22% 24%
TREND:
All Adults
April
2012
Feb.
2012
Oct.
2011
Aug.
2011
May
2011
Feb.
2011
July
2010
April
2010
Feb.
2010
July
2009
Feb.
2009
Sept.
2008
July
2008
April
2008
March
2008
Oct.
2007
Feb.
2007
Approve 38% 35% 35% 35% 33% 30% 24% 20% 26% 30% 25% 29% 27% 29% 28% 33% 35%
Disapprove 38% 39% 43% 47% 47% 44% 49% 56% 46% 47% 52% 47% 45% 53% 50% 41% 40%
(VOL) Don’t know 24% 26% 22% 19% 20% 26% 27% 24% 28% 23% 23% 23% 28% 18% 22% 26% 25%
Unwtd N

804

803 817 802 807 801 801 804 803 923 803 808 1004 803 805 801

801

TREND:
Registered Voters
April
2012
Feb.
2012
Oct.
2011
Aug.
2011
May
2011
Feb.
2011
July
2010
April
2010
Feb.
2010
July
2009
Feb.
2009
Sept.
2008
July
2008
April
2008
March
2008
Oct.
2007
Feb.
2007
Approve 37% 34% 33% 35% 32% 29% 25% 19% 24% 31% 23% 29% 27% 28% 25% 32% 34%
Disapprove 41% 42% 45% 48% 48% 45% 49% 57% 49% 48% 55% 50% 47% 55% 53% 43% 42%
(VOL) Don’t know 23% 24% 22% 17% 20% 26% 26% 24% 27% 22% 22% 21% 26% 17% 22% 25% 23%
Unwtd N

692

709 693 730 725 718 747 719 716 792 721 709 889 720 719 688

681

  1. I’d like you to grade the Christie administration on how it has handled specific issues over the past year. For each one I read, please give a letter grade of A, B, C, D or F for failing.  What grade would you give the Christie administration for [READ ITEM]?

[ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

 

Controlling costs and cutting waste

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

A – Highest grade 18% 19% 16% 10% 16% 37% 23% 14% 19% 19%
B 29% 28% 33% 21% 35% 29% 31% 28% 30% 29%
C 26% 26% 27% 32% 25% 24% 23% 29% 23% 27%
D 11% 11% 9% 14% 13% 4% 11% 11% 12% 10%
F – Failing grade 10% 11% 7% 17% 7% 6% 9% 12% 14% 9%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 5% 7% 6% 4% 1% 4% 7% 1% 6%
TREND: April
2012
Aug.
2011
Feb.
2011
July
2010
A – Highest grade 18% 12% 18% 21%
B 29% 22% 23% 22%
C 26% 34% 27% 24%
D 11% 14% 13% 12%
F – Failing grade 10% 14% 14% 15%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 4% 4% 6%
Unwtd N

804

802 801 801

Providing property tax relief

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

A – Highest grade 11% 10% 16% 11% 9% 14% 14% 8% 9% 12%
B 17% 17% 16% 12% 16% 25% 21% 13% 23% 15%
C 27% 27% 27% 25% 31% 26% 23% 31% 24% 28%
D 16% 18% 9% 19% 14% 18% 16% 16% 13% 17%
F – Failing grade 21% 22% 16% 26% 22% 9% 17% 24% 25% 19%
(VOL) Don’t know 8% 6% 16% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 9%
TREND: April
2012
Aug.
2011
Feb.
2011
July
2010
A – Highest grade 11% 4% 5% 10%
B 17% 16% 19% 21%
C 27% 30% 24% 24%
D 16% 17% 18% 15%
F – Failing grade 21% 26% 27% 23%
(VOL) Don’t know 8% 6% 8% 6%
Unwtd N

804

802 801

801

Improving our schools

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

A – Highest grade 13% 14% 10% 12% 12% 15% 14% 13% 13% 14%
B 24% 24% 23% 19% 22% 40% 29% 19% 25% 24%
C 25% 24% 34% 23% 30% 23% 27% 24% 19% 27%
D 14% 15% 10% 21% 13% 7% 12% 17% 12% 15%
F – Failing grade 16% 17% 13% 22% 16% 9% 11% 22% 24% 14%
(VOL) Don’t know 7% 6% 11% 3% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7%
TREND: April
2012
Aug.
2011
Feb.
2011
July
2010
A – Highest grade 13% 8% 10% 12%
B 24% 20% 22% 17%
C 25% 26% 22% 22%
D 14% 17% 15% 12%
F – Failing grade 16% 23% 26% 32%
(VOL) Don’t know 7% 5% 5% 5%
Unwtd N

804

802 801

801

  1. Which kind of tax cut would you prefer to get: a 10 percent cut to your New Jersey state income taxes OR a 10 percent property tax credit? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

Income tax cut 32% 30% 41% 33% 31% 36% 33% 30% 37% 31%
Property tax credit 61% 64% 48% 62% 60% 61% 60% 61% 56% 61%
(VOL) Don’t know 7% 7% 10% 5% 9% 3% 7% 8% 7% 8%
  1. Do you agree or disagree with Governor Christie’s decision to cancel the Hudson River ARC Tunnel project over a year ago, or don’t you have an opinion on this?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

Agree 26% 29% 14% 11% 29% 49% 34% 19% 28% 26%
Disagree 27% 28% 24% 40% 23% 13% 29% 25% 30% 26%
No opinion 46% 43% 62% 49% 47% 38% 36% 56% 42% 48%
(VOL) Refused 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
  1. Have you seen or heard any recent reports questioning Governor Christie’s cost estimates when he canceled the tunnel project over a year ago?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

Yes, heard 35% 39% 19% 30% 35% 42% 43% 27% 37% 34%
No, not heard 62% 59% 78% 66% 62% 56% 55% 70% 60% 63%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%
  1. Do you think that Governor Christie’s cost projections were basically accurate or were they probably overstated?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

Basically accurate 26% 27% 22% 16% 26% 42% 32% 21% 22% 27%
Probably overstated 50% 49% 54% 64% 52% 27% 47% 53% 50% 50%
(VOL) Don’t know 24% 24% 25% 21% 21% 31% 22% 26% 28% 23%
  1. Do you think merging the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey into Rutgers University is a good idea or bad idea, or do you have no opinion on this?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

Good idea 36% 36% 36% 40% 34% 38% 38% 35% 37% 36%
Bad idea 20% 21% 18% 21% 21% 17% 19% 21% 19% 20%
No opinion 43% 43% 45% 39% 45% 44% 43% 43% 42% 44%
(VOL) Refused 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0%
TREND: April
2012
Feb.
2012
Good idea 36% 31%
Bad idea 20% 13%
No opinion 43% 56%
(VOL) Refused 1% 1%
Unwtd N

804

803

  1. Do you think taking the Rutgers Camden campus and merging it into Rowan University is a good idea or bad idea, or do you have no opinion on this?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

Good idea 23% 23% 24% 23% 21% 32% 28% 19% 24% 23%
Bad idea 33% 33% 31% 40% 32% 23% 30% 36% 34% 32%
No opinion 44% 44% 44% 37% 47% 44% 43% 45% 41% 45%
(VOL) Refused 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
TREND: April
2012
Feb.
2012
Good idea 23% 20%
Bad idea 33% 22%
No opinion 44% 57%
(VOL) Refused 0% 0%
Unwtd N

804

803

  1. Do you think the Rutgers-Camden and Rowan merger was proposed mainly to improve higher education in New Jersey or mainly to benefit powerful political interests?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

PUBLIC
WORKER

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female Yes

No

Improve higher education in NJ 26% 27% 20% 24% 25% 32% 30% 22% 25% 26%
Benefit powerful political interests 45% 43% 52% 52% 45% 34% 44% 45% 43% 45%
(VOL) Both 3% 3% 1% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 5% 2%
(VOL) Don’t know 26% 27% 26% 20% 27% 32% 23% 30% 27% 26%

The Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute on April 11 to 15, 2012 with a statewide random sample of 804 adult residents, including 644 contacted on a landline telephone and 160 on a cell phone.  Live interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, Inc. and the telephone sample was obtained from Survey Sampling International.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey questionnaire design, data weighting and analysis.  For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

36% Dem 49% Male 29% 18-34

64% White

22% Rep 51% Female 39% 35-54

12% Black

42% Ind   32% 55+

15% Hispanic

     

      9% Asian/Other

Registered Voter Sample (weighted)

37% Dem 47% Male 24% 18-34

70% White

23% Rep 53% Female 39% 35-54

12% Black

40% Ind   37% 55+

10% Hispanic

     

  8% Asian/Other

It is the Monmouth University Polling Institute’s policy to conduct surveys of all adult New Jersey residents, including voters and non-voters, on issues that affect the state.  Specific voter surveys are conducted when appropriate during election cycles

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables