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Booker in 2014 NJ Senate Pole Position

Monday, March 3, 2014

Potential GOP opponents unknown to voters


Cory Booker’s only been on the job for a few months, but New Jersey voters seem ready to re-up his U.S. Senate contract for another six years.  The Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll  finds the state’s junior senator enjoys growing approval ratings while the field of potential Republican opponents is largely unknown.

Currently, 47% of New Jersey voters approve of the job Booker is doing as U.S. Senator compared to just 20% who disapprove.  Another 32% have no opinion.  In December, his job rating stood at 37% approve to 21% disapprove and 43% with no opinion.  Booker took office in October, shortly after winning a special election to fill the remainder of the late Frank Lautenberg’s term.  Booker garners solid ratings among his fellow Democrats (66% approve to 9% disapprove), generally positive ratings among independents (41% approve to 23% disapprove), and negative ratings among GOP voters (24% approve to 39% disapprove).

“New Jersey voters are just getting to know Cory Booker as their Senator and generally giving him positive reviews,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “They feel they have seen enough to say he deserves a full term.”

A majority (55%) of Garden State voters say that Booker should be re-elected to the U.S. Senate this November compared to 33% who say it is time to have someone else in office.  Booker’s re-election is endorsed by 82% of Democrats and 50% of independents.  Only 18% of Republicans agree.

When pitted against one potential GOP candidate in a hypothetical head-to-head contest, nearly 6-in-10 (58%) registered voters say they would support Cory Booker compared to just 25% who would vote for Murray Sabrin.  The Ramapo College finance professor may be known to Garden State political junkies from prior runs in 1997 – when he garnered 5% of the vote as a Libertarian candidate for Governor – and in 2008 – when he placed third in the GOP primary for Senate.  However, he is still unknown to most New Jersey voters.  No more than 1-in-10 have an impression of Sabrin, which is currently 6% favorable to 3% unfavorable.  This is not much different from voter opinion of Sabrin six years ago, when it was 4% favorable to 7% unfavorable.

Sabrin’s name recognition is no better or worse than other Republicans who intend to vie for Booker’s seat.  Only 7% of New Jersey voters have an opinion of Jeff Bell, who upset the state’s last sitting GOP senator in the 1978 primary but ultimately lost the general election.  Opinion of Bell is 4% favorable to 3% unfavorable.  A similarly low number of voters have any opinion of other announced candidates, including Brian Goldberg (9%), Rich Pezzullo (9%), and Robert Turkavage (7%).

Voter awareness of the Republican field stands in stark contrast to the incumbent.  Currently, 49% have a favorable opinion of Cory Booker and 16% have an unfavorable one.  These results are very similar to statewide New Jersey polls taken when Cory Booker served as mayor of Newark – 55% favorable to 9% favorable in February 2013 and 49% favorable to 13% unfavorable in September 2012.

“In a race that pits Cory Booker against What’s His Name, Booker is the odds on favorite,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll  also found that Booker’s senior colleague, Sen. Bob Menendez, garners positive job ratings from Garden State voters, 49% approve to 30% disapprove.  This is relatively unchanged from his December rating of 47% approve to 27% disapprove.

New Jersey voters continue to render a split decision on Pres. Barack Obama.  Currently, 49% approve and 47% disapprove of the president’s job performance.  This is slightly, but not substantially, better than Obama’s 44% positive to 50% negative rating last month and is very similar to his December rating of 47% positive to 47% negative.

The Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll  was conducted by telephone with 690 New Jersey registered voters from February 19 to 23, 2014.  This sample has a margin of error of ± 3.7 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the Asbury Park Press and its sister publications (Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune).

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black

Hispanic

Approve 49% 79% 39% 14% 44% 53% 58% 44% 49% 38% 84% 50%
Disapprove 47% 19% 52% 84% 53% 41% 36% 53% 46% 57% 11% 45%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 3% 8% 2% 4% 5% 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5%

 

TREND:
Registered 
voters
Feb.
2014
Jan.
2014
Dec.
2013
Sept.
2013
April
2013
Feb.
2013
Dec.
2012
April
2012
Feb.
2012
Oct.
2011
Aug.
2011
May
2011
Sept.
2010
July
2010
April
2010
Feb.
2010
Oct.
2009
July
2009
Approve 49% 44% 47% 50% 55% 60% 58% 54% 51% 47% 52% 60% 47% 51% 54% 53% 54% 59%
Disapprove 47% 50% 47% 41% 42% 33% 35% 41% 42% 46% 39% 36% 44% 42% 41% 38% 33% 29%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 6% 6% 8% 2% 7% 6% 5% 6% 7% 9% 4% 9% 6% 5% 9% 14% 12%
Unwtd N

690

470 698 674 694 697 726 692 709 693 730 725 726 747 719 716 785

792

[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Menendez is doing as United States Senator?

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black

Hispanic

Approve 49% 68% 42% 27% 50% 48% 63% 42% 48% 43% 62% 56%
Disapprove 30% 12% 37% 46% 36% 24% 22% 32% 32% 36% 14% 24%
(VOL) Don’t know 21% 20% 21% 27% 14% 28% 15% 26% 20% 22% 24% 19%
TREND: Registered
voters only
Feb.
2014
Dec.
2013
April
2013
Feb.
2013
April
2012
Feb.
2012
Oct.
2011
Aug.
2011
May
2011
July
2010
Oct.
2008
April
2008
Jan.
2008
Approve 49% 47% 44% 41% 40% 41% 43% 38% 46% 38% 34% 41% 37%
Disapprove 30% 27% 38% 31% 25% 26% 29% 33% 28% 33% 25% 31% 25%
(VOL) Don’t know 21% 26% 18% 28% 35% 33% 28% 29% 26% 29% 41% 28% 37%
Unwtd N

690

698 694 697 692 709 693 730 725 747 900 720

698

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Cory Booker is doing as United States Senator?

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black

Hispanic

Approve 47% 66% 41% 24% 48% 47% 60% 47% 40% 42% 62% 51%
Disapprove 20% 9% 23% 39% 24% 17% 22% 21% 18% 21% 22% 22%
(VOL) Don’t know 32% 25% 36% 37% 28% 36% 18% 32% 41% 37% 16% 27%

 

TREND: Registered
voters only
Feb.
2014
Dec.
2013
Approve 47% 37%
Disapprove 20% 21%
(VOL) Don’t know 32% 43%
Unwtd N

690

698

  1. Is your general impression of the following people favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of them? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
  1. Cory Booker

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black

Hispanic

Favorable 49% 65% 44% 27% 48% 49% 60% 43% 48% 45% 62% 50%
Unfavorable 16% 6% 16% 33% 20% 13% 16% 15% 16% 18% 16% 11%
No opinion 36% 28% 40% 40% 31% 39% 24% 41% 36% 37% 22% 38%
TREND: Registered
voters only
Feb.
2014
Feb.
2013*
Sept.
2012*
Favorable 49% 55% 49%
Unfavorable 16% 9% 13%
No opinion 36% 36% 38%
Unwtd N

690

697

715

* Prior questions stated “Newark Mayor Cory Booker”

  1. Murray Sabrin

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black

Hispanic

Favorable 6% 8% 7% 3% 8% 5% 7% 5% 7% 4% 15% 6%
Unfavorable 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% 2% 2% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4%
No opinion 90% 90% 89% 95% 87% 93% 90% 91% 90% 92% 82% 90%
TREND: Registered
voters only
Feb.
2014
April
2008
Favorable 6% 4%
Unfavorable 3% 7%
No opinion 90% 88%
Unwtd N

690

720

 [QUESTIONS 4C THROUGH 4F WERE ASKED OF A RANDOM HALF-SAMPLE: moe= ± 5.3%]

  1. Jeff Bell

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54

55+

Favorable 4% 6% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4%
Unfavorable 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 4% 1% 1% 7%
No opinion 93% 91% 93% 93% 93% 92% 94% 94% 90%
  1. Robert Turkavage

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54

55+

Favorable 5% 2% 6% 7% 4% 5% 12% 4% 2%
Unfavorable 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 4%
No opinion 94% 96% 92% 92% 94% 93% 87% 96% 94%
  1. Brian Goldberg

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54

55+

Favorable 5% 8% 4% 2% 6% 4% 9% 5% 3%
Unfavorable 4% 4% 5% 0% 5% 2% 6% 6% 0%
No opinion 91% 88% 90% 98% 88% 93% 86% 90% 97%
  1. Rich Pezzullo

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER

AGE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54

55+

Favorable 5% 7% 5% 2% 7% 3% 7% 6% 3%
Unfavorable 4% 3% 5% 3% 6% 2% 6% 5% 2%
No opinion 91% 90% 90% 95% 87% 95% 87% 90% 95%
  1. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat OR Murray Sabrin the Republican? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black

Hispanic

Cory Booker 58% 90% 52% 15% 56% 60% 67% 57% 55% 51% 82% 63%
Murray Sabrin 25% 3% 23% 70% 30% 21% 20% 29% 25% 32% 7% 19%
(VOL) Other candidate 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%
(VOL) Undecided 13% 6% 21% 12% 10% 16% 14% 12% 16% 14% 9% 14%
(VOL)  Will not vote 2% 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2%
  1. Looking ahead to November’s election for U.S. Senate, do you think that Cory Booker should be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?

TOTAL

PARTY ID GENDER AGE

RACE

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black

Hispanic

Should be re-elected 55% 82% 50% 18% 51% 58% 63% 53% 51% 45% 73% 69%
Time to have someone else in office 33% 12% 35% 66% 37% 30% 33% 33% 33% 40% 17% 27%
(VOL)  Don’t know 12% 6% 16% 16% 12% 12% 4% 14% 16% 15% 9% 4%

The Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from February 19 to 23, 2014 with a statewide random sample of 690 registered voters, including 539 contacted via live interview on a landline telephone and 151 via live interview on a cell phone.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey questionnaire design, data weighting and analysis.  For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

REGISTERED VOTERS
38% Dem 47% Male 22% 18-34

65% White

40% Ind 53% Female 42% 35-54

13% Black

22% Rep   36% 55+

14% Hispanic

     

      8% Asian/Other

It is the Monmouth University Polling Institute’s policy to conduct surveys of all adult New Jersey residents, including voters and non-voters, on issues that affect the state.  Specific voter surveys are conducted when appropriate during election cycles.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables