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Monmouth University Polling Institute

Trump Leads GOP Primary

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Frontrunner strong in all parts of the state

West Long Branch, NJ – Donald Trump’s sizable lead in Maryland’s GOP primary puts him on track to claim all 38 delegates available.  The Monmouth University Poll finds that concerns about Trump’s suitability for office expressed by the state’s Republican governor hold little sway with voters there.

Currently, 47% of likely Republican primary voters in Maryland support Trump compared to 27% who support John Kasich and 19% who intend to vote for Ted Cruz.  Trump’s strongest area of support is in congressional districts 1 and 5, the eastern part of the state bordering the Chesapeake Bay, where he earns 54% support to 24% for Kasich and 11% for Cruz.  Trump also does well in districts 6 and 8, which encompass the western part of the state, with 44% of the vote to 25% for Kasich and 23% for Cruz. Trump leads by a smaller margin in the state’s remaining four congressional districts that run along the I-95 corridor from Baltimore to the DC suburbs, getting 43% of the vote there to 31% for Kasich and 20% for Cruz.

“If Trump’s current level of support translates to each of Maryland’s eight congressional districts, he may be able to run the table in the all-important delegate contest,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Trump holds a large advantage among very conservative voters (58% to 27% for Cruz and 9% for Kasich), but a much smaller edge among somewhat conservative voters (38% to 33% for Kasich and 21% for Cruz).  He splits the moderate vote with Kasich at 41% apiece, while Cruz gets 10%.

Kasich has a slight lead over Trump among college graduates (40% to 35%, with Cruz at 17%), but Trump more than makes up for this by garnering the support of nearly 6-in-10 voters who do not have a college degree (58%), compared to only 21% who support Cruz and 14% who support Kasich.  Trump also enjoys a large lead among male voters (55% to 24% for Kasich and 13% for Cruz) that augments his smaller lead among female voters (37% to 30% for Kasich and 25% for Cruz).

“Even though Kasich is competitive among certain demographic groups, Trump’s overwhelming support among men without a college education accounts for his substantial lead statewide,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll also found that Gov. Larry Hogan’s reservations about the frontrunner have little effect on his state’s electorate.  Just over half (53%) of likely primary voters have heard about Hogan’s comments that Trump should not be the party’s nominee. The vast majority (83%) of voters, though, say Hogan’s position will have no impact on their own vote.  Just 10% say it makes them less likely to support Trump and 5% say it actually makes them more likely to support Trump.

Looking ahead to November, 73% of Republican primary voters in Maryland say they would support Trump in a general election against Hillary Clinton, while 11% say they would vote for Clinton and 8% would vote for an independent candidate.  If Kasich is the nominee, 80% would support him against Clinton, but if Cruz is the nominee, only 67% of GOP primary voters say they would be willing to commit to backing him in November.

Just over 4-in-10 Republican voters (44%) report they are completely decided on their primary choice, with Trump voters (56%) being more likely to have locked in their vote than either Kasich (39%) or Cruz (39%) supporters.  Another 30% of Maryland Republicans say they have a strong preference but are willing to consider other candidates, 11% have only a slight preference and 15% say they are really undecided even if they say they lean to a candidate at this time.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from April 10 to 12, 2016 with 301 Maryland voters likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary.  This sample has a margin of error of ±5.7 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

 

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

 

  1. If the Republican primary election for president was today, would you vote for – [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
  April
2016
Donald Trump 47%
John Kasich 27%
Ted Cruz 19%
(VOL) Other 1%
(VOL) Undecided 7%
(n) (301)

 

  1. Which of the following best describes where your decision stands at this moment: I am completely decided on which candidate I will support, I have a strong preference right now but I am willing to consider other candidates, I have a slight preference among a group of candidates I like, or I am really undecided among a number of candidates?
  April
2016
Already voted 0%
Completely decided 44%
Strong preference 30%
Slight preference 11%
Undecided 15%

 

[QUESTIONS 3 THROUGH 5 WERE ROTATED]

  1. If Donald Trump became the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton became the Democratic nominee, who would you vote for in the general election in November – Trump or Clinton or an independent candidate, or would you not vote for president?
  April
2016
Donald Trump 73%
Hillary Clinton 11%
Independent candidate 8%
Would not vote 3%
(VOL) Undecided 5%

 

  1. If Ted Cruz became the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton became the Democratic nominee, who would you vote for in the general election in November – Cruz or Clinton or an independent candidate, or would you not vote for president?
  April
2016
Ted Cruz 67%
Hillary Clinton 8%
Independent candidate 10%
Would not vote 7%
(VOL) Undecided 8%

 

  1. If John Kasich became the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton became the Democratic nominee, who would you vote for in the general election in November – Kasich or Clinton or an independent candidate, or would you not vote for president?
  April
2016
John Kasich 80%
Hillary Clinton 4%
Independent candidate 5%
Would not vote 8%
(VOL) Undecided 3%

 

  1. Governor Larry Hogan has said that Donald Trump should NOT be the party’s nominee. Have you heard about this or not heard about this before?
  April
2016
Had heard 53%
Had not heard 47%
(VOL) Don’t know 0%

 

  1. Does Governor Hogan’s position make you more likely or less likely to support Trump or does this have no impact on your vote in the primary?
  April
2016
More likely 5%
Less likely 10%
No impact 83%
(VOL) Don’t know 2%

 

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from April 10 to 12, 2016 with a statewide random sample of Maryland voters drawn from a list of registered Republican voters, who participated in a primary election in 2012 or 2014 or voted in both of the last two general elections or have registered since 2014, and indicate they will vote in the presidential primary on April 26, 2016.  The total sample of 301 likely voters includes 201 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 100 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list). For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

 

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
53% Male 11% 18-34 96% White
47% Female 23% 35-49   1% Black
  39% 50-64   2% Hispanic
  28% 65+   1% Other

 

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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- Monmouth University Polling Institute