GOP Gains in CD03

West Long Branch, NJ – Republican Carol Miller has overtaken Democrat Richard Ojeda in the race for West Virginia’s 3^rd Congressional District, according to the second Monmouth University Poll of this contest.  Ojeda’s personal appeal and the presence of a popular Democratic U.S. Senator at the top of the ticket have kept him in a race where all the underlying fundamentals – especially President Donald Trump’s popularity – favor Miller.  The question is whether that is enough to keep this race competitive as the district starts reverting to its GOP norms.

Miller currently holds a 48% to 45% lead over Ojeda among likely voters using Monmouth’s standard midterm turnout model. Other turnout models show similar results, with 48% to 46% leads for Miller using either a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts or a model that projects lower turnout overall.  In June, Ojeda actually held a lead of between 6 and 9 points in Monmouth’s poll – 47%-41% in the standard model, 48%-39% in the Democratic surge model, and 47%-40% in the low turnout model.  While there has been a significant increase in Miller’s vote share, her current lead is within the poll’s margin of error for all three likely voter models.

“Ojeda’s share of the vote hasn’t really moved since the summer while Miller’s standing has risen. These results are a sign of Republican voters returning to the fold in a district that leans Republican, especially in its support of the president,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Trump receives a nearly 2-to-1 positive rating from WV-03 voters – 63% approve and 35% disapprove.  This is nearly identical to his 63%-34% rating from June. Seven-in-ten (70%) voters say that the president is a very important factor in their vote for Congress, with somewhat more Trump opponents (79%) than Trump supporters (69%) feeling this way.  In general, though, more WV-03 voters prefer to see the Republican Party (49%) in control of Congress rather than the Democrats (30%).

Trump held a rally in the state earlier this month where he endorsed Miller and called Ojeda a “wacko” and “stone cold crazy.” Three-quarters (77%) of voters are aware of Trump’s endorsement, but its impact is a wash – 23% say it makes them more likely to support Miller, 27% say it makes them less likely, and 47% say it has no impact on their vote.  Just over half (55%) have heard about the president’s characterization of Ojeda and slightly more voters actually say this makes them more likely (18%) rather than less likely (9%) to back the Democrat. However, the overwhelming majority (70%) say it doesn’t affect their vote either way.

“The problem for Ojeda is that there just aren’t that many Trump opponents in this district to give him the kind of edge that he would have if this was a competitive suburban district elsewhere in the country.  The Democrat is hanging on in this race largely due to his personal connection with voters there,” said Murray.

Nearly half (48%) of WV-03 voters say Ojeda understands their day to day concerns while 34% say he does not. Opinion of Miller is more divided on this factor, with 40% saying she understands their day to day concerns and 42% saying she does not. These results were similar for Ojeda in June, when 42% said he understood their concerns and 24% said he did not. Miller’s rating on this metric has become more negative since June when 33% said she understood their concerns and 24% said she did not.

Both candidates, though, hold similar personal ratings – 37% favorable to 31% unfavorable for Miller and 39% favorable to 32% unfavorable for Ojeda. The Republican has gotten a slightly more positive bump than the Democrat on this rating since the summer, although both have seen their negative numbers go up much more. In June, Miller’s rating stood at 28% favorable to 13% unfavorable while Ojeda’s rating stood at 37% favorable to 15% unfavorable.

Voters are divided on which candidate shares their values – 39% say it is Miller and 36% say it is Ojeda, with 10% saying both candidates equally share their values. The top issue for WV-03 voters is health care (27%), as it is in other districts Monmouth has polled in the 2018 cycle. This is followed by abortion (16%), job creation (15%), opioid addiction (11%), immigration (11%), gun control (10%), and taxes (5%).  Ojeda voters choose health care (40%) as their top issue, with opioid addiction (17%) and job creation (14%) falling in the next tier of priorities. Miller voters, on the other hand, are more likely to name abortion (25%) as their top concern, with gun control (16%), immigration (15%), job creation (14%), and health care (13%) grouped in the next level.

“This is the only district Monmouth has polled where abortion registers this highly as voters’ top issue. It just illustrates how different this race is than most of the other contests that will decide which party controls the House,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll also asked WV-03 voters about their preference in the state’s U.S. Senate race.  Incumbent Joe Manchin (56%) has a significant 20 point advantage over challenger Patrick Morrisey (36%) in this district using Monmouth’s standard turnout model. This is larger than the 14 point lead (53% to 39%) Manchin held in this part of the state in June. Monmouth did not survey the entire state in the current poll, but Manchin’s June advantage in the 3^rd Congressional District was 7 points higher than his overall statewide lead of 7 points (50%-43%) in that poll.

Manchin was the only Democratic senator to vote in favor of Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court, but the poll finds that this is not having much of an electoral impact either way. Nearly 8-in-10 (78%) likely WV-03 voters say this issue has not caused them to change their vote for the Senate. Among the remainder, 7% say the Kavanaugh issue has made them more likely to support Manchin, 5% say it has made them more likely to support Morrisey, and 9% say it has made them more undecided.

The poll finds that Morrisey supporters are more likely to vote straight party-line than they were in the summer while Manchin voters have become slightly less likely. Specifically, 91% of Morrisey voters say they are supporting Miller in the House race and only 6% are supporting Ojeda. In June, a smaller number of Morrisey voters (78%) were committed to voting Republican in the House while 13% were supporting the Democrat. Among Manchin voters, 72% currently support Ojeda, but 21% are splitting their ticket for Miller in the House race.  In June, a slightly smaller 17% of Manchin voters preferred Miller while 72% stood with Ojeda.

“Manchin’s name brand might be incredibly strong in West Virginia’s 3^rd District, but his coattails aren’t long enough to easily carry Ojeda over the finish line with him,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 10 to 14, 2018 with 350 likely voters in West Virginia 3^rd Congressional District. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/-5.2 percentage points. The error of the difference between the two candidates’ vote share (i.e. the “lead”) is +/-7.4 percentage points.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[QUESTIONS SEN1/2 & HOUSE1/2 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 11 & 12 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 15/15A & 16/16A WERE ROTATED]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 10 to 14, 2018 with a random sample of 350 likely voters in West Virginia’s 3^rd Congressional District, drawn from a list of registered voters who voted in at least one of the last four general or primary elections, or have registered to vote since January 2016. This includes 207 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 143 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, party registration, age, gender, education and race based on state voter registration list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and L2 (voter sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

Party Registration

28%  Republican

56%  Democrat

17%  Neither

Self-Reported Party ID

34%  Republican

31%  Independent

35%  Democrat

50%  Male

50%  Female

9%  18-34

16%  35-49

33%  50-64

42%  65+

92% White

8% Other

78%  No college degree

22%  4-year college degree

52%  West region

21%  Mercer/Raleigh

26%  East region

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.