Public Divided on Whether Migrant Caravan Poses a Threat

West Long Branch, NJ – A majority of Americans say a caravan of migrants now approaching the nation’s southern border poses at least a minor threat to the country, according to the Monmouth University Poll.  At the same time, 7-in-10 say that these migrants should be given the opportunity to enter the country if they meet certain requirements. Half are disinclined to believe that terrorists are traveling with the caravan, although 1-in-4 seem fairly certain that those claims are true.

Overall, 29% of Americans see the migrant caravan traveling toward our border with Mexico as a major threat to the U.S., 24% see it as a minor threat, and 39% see it as no real threat to the country.  A majority of Republicans (54%) see the caravan as a major threat, but they are joined by only 28% of independents and 11% of Democrats. Regionally, residents of the four states (CA, AZ, NM, TX) that share a border with Mexico are least likely to be worried about the caravan – only 21% see it as a major threat.  Residents of the Southeast (35%), Midwest (33%), and Mountain-Northwest (33%) regions are more likely to view the caravan as a major threat. Views of Northeast residents (25% major threat) are more in line with those living in the border states than elsewhere in the country.

Most Americans (70%) say that these migrants should be given the opportunity to enter the country if they meet certain requirements such as showing they were persecuted in their home countries and not having a criminal record. Another 26%, however, say they should be sent back to their home countries when they reach the border. A majority of Republicans (51%) say the caravan should be turned back, while 43% say these migrants should be given the opportunity to enter. Large majorities of Democrats (89%) and independents (72%), on the other hand, support giving migrants in the caravan a chance to enter the U.S.

“Most of the public express some level of concern about the approaching caravan, some of which may be due to unsubstantiated claims that the group includes terrorists. At the same time, though, most Americans feel that each migrant should be given the opportunity to state their case for entering the United States,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

During the 2018 election campaign, President Donald Trump and others in his administration implied or stated outright that the caravan included a number of foreign terrorists. One-in-four (25%) Americans believe that the caravan does in fact include terrorists and another 13% are not sure but believe this claim is likely to be true. Half, though, say either they do not believe there are terrorists in the caravan (22%) or that such a claim is less likely to be true (28%).

In addition to claims about terrorists traveling with the caravan, some Republican groups aired campaign ads that focused on crimes committed by illegal immigrants. Half of the public (51%) believes that illegal immigrants in the U.S. are not any more or less likely than other residents of the country to commit violent crimes like rape or murder. The remainder are divided – 24% say illegal immigrants are actually less likely to commit such crimes and 21% say they are more likely.  These results have not changed all that much since a 2015 Monmouth University Poll, when 20% said illegal immigrants were less likely to commit violent crimes, 17% said they were more likely, and 59% said they were about as likely as other Americans to commit violent crimes.

Overall, 7-in-10 Americans believe that illegal immigration is either a very serious (49%) or somewhat serious (21%) problem.  Just 15% say it is not too serious and 13% say it is not at all serious.  These results are comparable to prior Monmouth polls that have asked this question over the past three years.

“As these trends show, the emphasis on immigration during the midterm campaign was not about winning over voters. It was about reinforcing opinions that already exist. Few minds were changed by all the campaign rhetoric on this issue, but it certainly helped deepen the nation’s partisan divide,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from November 9 to 12, 2018 with 802 adults in the United States.  The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-11 and Q21-24 previously released.]

[Q12-20 held for future release.]

[Q31-42 held for future release.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from November 9 to 12, 2018 with a national random sample of 802 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 398 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 404 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.