West Long Branch, NJ – Pennsylvania is currently looking positive for Democrats according to the Monmouth University Poll . Hillary Clinton has an 8 point lead over Donald Trump in the race for president and Katie McGinty has a 4 point edge over Pat Toomey in the U.S. Senate contest.
Among Keystone State voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 40% back Trump. Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% back Jill Stein of the Green Party, and 4% are undecided. Slightly more Democrats back Clinton (86%) than Republicans who back Trump (81%). Independents are divided at 39% for Trump and 36% for Clinton, with 17% supporting Johnson and 2% supporting Stein.
Clinton leads by a massive 85 points among black, Hispanic, and Asian voters (90% to 5%), while Trump leads by 9 points among white voters (48% to 39%). In 2012, Barack Obama won non-white voters by 71 points while Mitt Romney took the white vote by 15 points. Trump is winning white men by 18 points (50% to 32%), but is virtually tied among white women (45% to 46% for Clinton). The GOP nominee is ahead among white voters without a college degree by 25 points (57% to 32%), but is trailing among college educated white voters by 10 points (37% to 47%). Four years ago, Romney won the votes of both white men (by 21 points) and white women (by 9 points). He also won the white vote by a similar margin regardless of education – by 13 points among non-graduates and by 15 points among those with a college degree.
Clinton is doing exceptionally well in the southeastern corner of the state – she leads Trump by a 62% to 29% margin in the seven congressional districts that encompass the city of Philadelphia and its adjacent suburbs. Historically, this area accounts for more than 40% of the statewide turnout in a typical election, with Obama winning the region by a 62% to 37% margin four years ago. Trump holds a lead of 58% to 28% in the less populous northeastern and central part of the state – better than Romney’s 53% to 46% win here – but has a smaller 47% to 40% edge in the western portion – similar to Romney’s 53% to 45% advantage in 2012.
“It looks like Clinton’s got a friend in Pennsylvania, particularly in the Philly suburbs,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “A key factor boosting Clinton’s support there is that about half of white voters in this region have a college degree, compared to just over one-third in the rest of the state.”
Still, Keystone State voters are not any happier with their ballot options than voters in the rest of the country. Just 36% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 51% have an unfavorable view of her, while only 31% have a favorable opinion of Trump and 54% have an unfavorable view of him.
Clinton does slightly better when it comes to “looking out for the little guy.” While 45% say the Democratic nominee would do a good job at this, 48% say she would do a bad job. Trump scores worse on this metric with 37% who say he would do a good job looking out for the little guy and 54% who say he would do a bad job.
As with the presidential race, Pennsylvania is starting to look like one of the Democratic Party’s better hopes for picking up a U.S. Senate seat. Challenger Katie McGinty currently has a 45% to 41% lead over GOP incumbent Pat Toomey, with 6% giving their support to Libertarian Edward Clifford and 8% who are undecided. McGinty has the support of 85% of Democrats while Toomey has the backing of 81% of Republicans. Independents prefer Toomey by a 41% to 29% margin, with 18% choosing Clifford.
There is still plenty of time for Toomey to mount a comeback, particularly since more voters approve (43%) rather than disapprove (35%) of the job he has been doing as their senator. On a more personal level, though, voters are divided, with 32% having a favorable opinion of Toomey, 30% having an unfavorable opinion, and 38% who have formed no personal opinion of the first-term senator. McGinty has a net positive score on voters’ personal rating, although she is less well known overall. Currently, 27% have a favorable opinion of the challenger and 17% hold an unfavorable view, with 56% offering no opinion of McGinty.
The Monmouth University Poll also found that 15% of voters think Toomey has been too supportive of Trump, 19% say he has not been supportive enough, and 28% say Toomey has given his party’s nominee the right amount of support. Another 38% offer no opinion on this. Turning to the Democrats, 17% of voters think McGinty has been too supportive of Clinton, 5% say she has not been supportive enough, and 43% say McGinty has given her party’s nominee the right amount of support. Another 35% offer no opinion on this.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 26 to 29, 2016 with 402 Pennsylvania residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of ± 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
QUESTIONS AND RESULTS
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party?
[IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
|(VOL) Other candidate||1%|
3. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Pat Toomey the Republican, Katie McGinty the Democrat, or Edward Clifford the Libertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward – Pat Toomey or Katie McGinty?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
|(VOL) Other candidate||
Regardless of who you may support for president…
[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED]
4. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
5. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?
[QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED]
6. Do you think Donald Trump as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy?
|(VOL) Don’t know||9%|
7. Do you think Hillary Clinton as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy?
|(VOL) Don’t know||7%|
Turning to the Senate race…
[QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED]
8. Is your general impression of Pat Toomey favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
9. Is your general impression of Katie McGinty favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pat Toomey is doing as U.S. senator?
|(VOL) No opinion||22%|
[QUESTIONS 11 & 12 WERE ROTATED]
11. Is Pat Toomey too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or does he give the right amount of support to Trump?
|Not supportive enough||19%|
|Right amount of support||28%|
|(VOL) Don’t know||38%|
12. Is Katie McGinty too supportive of Hillary Clinton, not supportive enough, or does she give the right amount of support to Clinton?
|Not supportive enough||5%|
|Right amount of support||43%|
|(VOL) Don’t know||35%|
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 26 to 29, 2016 with a random sample of 402 likely Pennsylvania voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 351 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 51 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.