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Monmouth University Polling Institute

Clinton Maintains Double Digit Lead

Monday, October 03, 2016

Sen. Bennet in strong position for re-election

West Long Branch, NJ  - Hillary Clinton holds an 11 point lead over Donald Trump in Colorado, which is nearly identical to the 13 point advantage she had when Monmouth University polled the state in mid-July.  In the contest for U.S. Senate, the Monmouth University Poll  finds that Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet has widened his lead over Republican challenger Darryl Glenn to 18 points.

Among Colorado voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 49% currently support Clinton and 38% back Trump.  Another 7% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 3% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and 3% are undecided.  In mid-July, the race stood at Clinton 48%, Trump 35%, Johnson 5%, and Stein 3%.

"Some polls had suggested that Colorado was becoming more competitive.  That may have been true last month, but it does not appear to be the case now.  Clinton's current lead is as comfortable as it was three months ago, which is probably why her campaign has not diverted a lot of resources here," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Among self-identified Democrats, 95% support Clinton - similar to 93% in July.  Among self-identified Republicans, 90% support Trump - up from 78% in July.  Clinton has widened her lead among independents - 49% to 26% now, compared with 40% to 28% in July.

Clinton also has an overwhelming lead among Hispanic, black, and Asian voters (71% to 17%) as well as a slight lead among white voters (45% to 42%).  These dynamics are basically unchanged from July when she had a 66% to 15% lead among non-white voters and a 44% to 38% edge among white voters.

Clinton has lost some support among women voters, but this has been made up for by a swing in her favor by male voters.  Women back Clinton over Trump by 49% to 36% and men support her by a 48% to 41% margin.  In July, Clinton had a larger lead among women voters (56% to 30%), but men were divided (39% Clinton and 40% Trump).

Colorado voters continue to hold a more negative view of Trump than Clinton.  Fewer than 4-in-10 (37%) have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 51% hold an unfavorable view of her.  However, only 29% have a favorable opinion of Trump while 63% hold an unfavorable view of him.  Both of these results have changed little since July.

Clinton has a slight edge over Trump on being seen as someone who understands the concerns of typical voters.  While Colorado voters are divided on whether Clinton has this characteristic - 47% say she does and 50% say she doesn't - fewer see Trump as someone who understands the day to day concerns of people like them - 38% say he does and 60% say he doesn't.

Clinton has an even wider advantage on the issue of presidential temperament - something that has been dominating the news since last week's debate.  Twice as many voters say Clinton has the right temperament for the job (61%) compared to those who say the same about Trump (31%).

Turning to the Senate race, incumbent Michael Bennet currently leads El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn by 53% to 35%.  Libertarian Lily Tang Williams has 4% of the likely vote and Green Party candidate Arn Menconi has 3%, while 5% are undecided.  This represents a widening of the 48% to 35% lead Bennet held in July.

More than 9-in-10 Democrats (95%) back Bennet while 86% of Republicans support Glenn.  Bennet has a 54% to 24% advantage among independents, even larger than the 41% to 28% lead he held three months ago.  Bennet has a lead over Glenn among white voters (49% to 39%) and an even larger lead among Hispanic, black, and Asian voters (73% to 15%).  In July, Bennet had a 45% to 38% lead among white voters and a 61% to 19% lead among non-white voters.

Overall, 53% of Colorado voters approve of the job Bennet has done during his tenure in the U.S. Senate while just 25% disapprove.  On a personal level, 45% have a favorable opinion of Bennet and 22% hold an unfavorable view of him, with 33% having no opinion.  These numbers are largely similar to Monmouth's July poll.

"Glenn really hasn't been able to introduce himself to voters, but the bottom line is it's nearly impossible to defeat an incumbent with these approval numbers," said Murray.

Glenn has a much lower profile, with 23% having a favorable opinion and 14% having an unfavorable opinion of the challenger, while 63% have no opinion.  This is little improved over his 20% favorable, 10% unfavorable, and 70% no opinion rating from July.

Most Colorado voters say they separate the contests for president and senate when making their vote calculations.  About 3-in-4 (75%) say they do not view Glenn's senate candidacy in relation to Trump, and over 2-in-3 (70%) say they do not look at Bennet's campaign in relation to Clinton.  Among the remainder, though, 11% see Glenn as being too close to Trump and 3% say he is not close enough.  About 1-in-5 (20%) see Bennet as too close to Clinton and 3% say he is not close enough.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from September 29 to October 2, 2016 with 400 Colorado residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of ± 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

 

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

 

1/2.   If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party?  [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?]  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

 (with leaners) Oct.
2016
July
2016
Donald Trump 38% 35%
Hillary Clinton 49% 48%
Gary Johnson 7% 5%
Jill Stein 3% 3%
(VOL) Other candidate

<1%

3%
(VOL) Undecided 3% 7%
(n) (400) (404)

 

  1. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Darryl Glenn the Republican, Michael Bennet the Democrat, Lily Tang Williams the Libertarian, or Arn Menconi of the Green Party? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward – Darryl Glenn or Michael Bennet?]  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
 (with leaners) Oct.
2016
July
2016
Darryl Glenn 35% 35%
Michael Bennet 53% 48%
Lily Tang Williams 4% 3%
Arn Menconi 3% 2%
(VOL) Undecided 5% 12%
(n) (400) (404)

 

Regardless of who you may support for president…

[QUESTIONS 4 & 5  WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
  Oct.
2016
July
2016
Favorable 29% 24%
Unfavorable 63% 64%
No opinion 9% 12%
(n) (400) (404)

 

  1. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?
  Oct.
2016
July
2016
Favorable 37% 37%
Unfavorable 51% 50%
No opinion 11% 12%
(n) (400) (404)

[QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Regardless of whether you would vote for him, do you think Donald Trump does or does not have the right temperament to be president?
  Oct.
2016
Does 31%
Does not 66%
(VOL) Don’t know 3%
(n) (400)

 

  1. Regardless of whether you would vote for her, do you think Hillary Clinton does or does not have the right temperament to be president?
  Oct.
2016
Does 61%
Does not 37%
(VOL) Don’t know 2%
(n) (400)

 

[QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Do you think Donald Trump does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like you?
  Oct.
2016
Does 38%
Does not 60%
(VOL) Don’t know 2%
(n) (400)

 

  1. Do you think Hillary Clinton does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like you?
  Oct.
2016
Does 47%
Does not 50%
(VOL) Don’t know 3%
(n) (400)

 

Turning to the Senate race…

[QUESTIONS 10 & 11 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general impression of Darryl Glenn favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
  Oct.
2016
July
2016
Favorable 23% 20%
Unfavorable 14% 10%
No opinion 63% 70%
(n) (400) (404)

 

  1. Is your general impression of Michael Bennet favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
  Oct.
2016
July
2016
Favorable 45% 43%
Unfavorable 22% 21%
No opinion 33% 36%
(n) (400) (404)

 

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Michael Bennet is doing as U.S. senator?
  Oct.
2016
July
2016
Approve 53% 51%
Disapprove 25% 25%
(VOL) No opinion 22% 24%
(n) (400) (404)

 

[QUESTIONS 13 & 14 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Do you see Darryl Glenn as being too close to Donald Trump, not close enough, or do you not view his candidacy in relation to Trump one way or the other?
  Oct.
2016
July
2016
Too close 11% 5%
Not close enough 3% 3%
Do not view candidacy in relation to Trump 75% 81%
(VOL) Don’t know 10% 11%
(n) (400) (404)

 

  1. Do you see Michael Bennet as being too close to Hillary Clinton, not close enough, or do you not view his candidacy in relation to Clinton one way or the other?
  Oct.
2016
Too close 20%
Not close enough 3%
Do not view candidacy in relation to Clinton 70%
(VOL) Don’t know 7%
(n) (400)

 

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 29 to October 2, 2016 with a random sample of 400 likely Colorado voters.  Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 350 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 150 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

 

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

Self-Reported

30% Republican
41% Independent
29% Democrat
 
49% Male
51% Female
 
23% 18-34
27% 35-49
28% 50-64
22% 65+
 
83% White

  3% Black

12% Hispanic

  2% Other

 

 

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

 

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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