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Clinton Maintains Lead

Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2015

But her supporters wouldn’t be upset if Sanders won

West Long Branch, NJ  – Hillary Clinton’s lead in the Democratic field is holding steady according to the most recent national Monmouth University Poll .  However, most of her supporters are okay with the idea of Bernie Sanders being the party’s 2016 standard bearer.

Hillary Clinton currently has the support of 52% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters nationwide.  Bernie Sanders places a distant second at 16% followed by Joe Biden at 12%.  Martin O’Malley and Jim Webb each take 2%.  These results are basically unchanged from Monmouth’s July poll.

Once again, Lincoln Chafee registers no support.  The Monmouth University Poll  has interviewed 1,136 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters in three national polls since Chafee announced his presidential bid in June.  As of yet, not one poll participant has selected him in the nomination vote choice question.

With Sanders emerging as Clinton’s chief opposition – assuming Biden stays out of the race – the poll found that most Democrats wouldn’t mind seeing him take the party’s nomination – including 17% who would be enthusiastic about this and 39% who would be satisfied.  Fewer than 1-in-4 would take a negative view of this outcome – including 16% who would be dissatisfied and 7% who would be upset with a Sanders victory.  Another 22% have no opinion.

Even those who currently support Clinton would be fine with a Sanders-topped ticket.  Half of Clinton voters would be enthusiastic (7%) or satisfied (43%), while just 3-in-10 would be dissatisfied (18%) or upset (12%).

“Clinton continues to be the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination, but Democrats don’t have a particularly strong attachment to seeing her become their nominee,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

Hillary Clinton continues to be viewed favorably by the vast majority of Democrats.  Currently, 71% of her party’s voters have a favorable opinion of her, while just 17% hold an unfavorable view.  However, positive opinion of Clinton among Democrats has been slowly eroding over the past few months.  It stood at 82% in December of last year.

Bernie Sanders’s rating, on the other hand, has steadily improved.  He currently holds a 42% favorable and 12% unfavorable rating, with 45% having no opinion.  Back in December, he held a 22% positive and 13% negative rating, with 65% having no opinion.

Clinton earns higher favorable ratings from self-identified Democrats (76%) than from independents who lean Democrat (56%).  It’s the reverse for Sanders, who does better among leaners (51%) than among solid partisans (39%).

Democratic voter ratings have held steady for the rest of the field over the past month.  Joe Biden has a 67% favorable to 14% unfavorable rating, Jim Webb has a 16% to 11% rating, Martin O’Malley has a 13% to 9% rating, and Lincoln Chafee has an 8% to 11% rating.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from July 30 to August 2, 2015 with 1,203 adults in the United States.   This release is based on a voter sample of 429 registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party.  This voter sample has a margin of error of ±  4.7 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1. I know the 2016 election is far away, but who would you support for the Democratic nomination for president if the candidates were – [NAMES WERE ROTATED]?

 Aug.
2015
July
2015
June
2015
April
2015
Joe Biden12%13%12%16%
Lincoln Chafee0%0%0%

n/a

Hillary Clinton52%51%57%60%
Martin O’Malley2%1%1%2%
Bernie Sanders16%17%12%7%
Jim Webb2%1%2%1%
(VOL) Other2%0%0%0%
(VOL) No one3%2%2%2%
(VOL) Undecided11%15%14%12%
Unwtd N

429

357350

356

2. I’m going to read you a few names of people who might run for president in 2016. Please tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion.  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

 

Favorable

Unfavorable

No opinion

Vice President Joe Biden

   67%

   14%

   19%

    –July 2015

67

17

16

    –June 2015

62

18

20

    –April 2015

65

22

14

    –December 2014

46

32

22

Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee

   8%

   11%

   81%

    –July 2015

 9

13

78

    –June 2015

 9

18

74

    –April 2015

n/a

n/a

n/a

    –December 2014

n/a

n/a

n/a

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

   71%

   17%

   13%

    –July 2015

74

17

  9

    –June 2015

78

12

10

    –April 2015

76

16

  8

    –December 2014

82

11

  7

Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley

   13%

   9%

   78%

    –July 2015

13

14

72

    –June 2015

13

18

70

    –April 2015

21

12

66

    –December 2014

10

13

77

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders

   42%

   12%

   45%

    –July 2015

36

12

51

    –June 2015

29

18

54

    –April 2015

30

12

58

    –December 2014

22

13

65

Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb

   16%

   11%

   73%

    –July 2015

13

15

71

    –June 2015

 9

20

71

    –April 2015

14

18

68

    –December 2014

11

14

75

    

3. How would you feel if Bernie Sanders ended up becoming the Democratic nominee – enthusiastic, satisfied, dissatisfied, or upset?

 Aug.
2015
Enthusiastic17%
Satisfied39%
Dissatisfied16%
Upset7%
(VOL) Don’t know22%

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from July 30 to August 2, 2015 with a national random sample of 1,203 adults age 18 and older.  This includes 842 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 361 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and SSI (RDD sample).  The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 429 registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party.  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)  FULL SAMPLE – ALL ADULTS

49% Male32% 18-34

66% White

51% Female36% 35-54

12% Black

 32% 55+

15% Hispanic

  

      7% Asian/Other

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)  DEMOCRAT VOTERS ONLY

42% Male29% 18-34

57% White

58% Female33% 35-54

22% Black

 39% 55+

14% Hispanic

  

      7% Asian/Other

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with crosstabs