CD19: Hall v. Hayworth

In the election for New York’s 19^th Congressional District, incumbent John Hall is in a virtual tie with his challenger Nan Hayworth.  The Monmouth University Poll finds the incumbent Democrat with 49% of the vote and the Republican with 48% among likely voters in this district.

While Hayworth leads among independent voters in this district by 57% to 39%, she loses some Republicans to Hall.  Among her fellow Republicans, Hayworth has 78% of the vote, with 19% going for Hall.  Hall does better among his fellow Democrats, holding on to 89% of his party’s vote and losing just 10% to Hayworth.  Hayworth faced a conservative primary challenger who attacked her position on abortion and other social issues.

“This race couldn’t be any closer.  Hayworth may be suffering some backlash with conservative social issue voters right now.  Without another candidate on the ballot, though, they are likely to return to the Republican fold on Election Day,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

There is an interesting and stark gender divide in New York’s 19^th District.  Male voters prefer the female challenger by a 57% to 42% margin, while female voters support the male incumbent by a similar 57% to 39% margin.

Congressman John Hall’s job performance rating among likely voters in his district is split at 45% approve to 44% disapprove.  He garners personal ratings of 46% favorable to 40% unfavorable.  By comparison, 42% of voters give Hayworth a favorable rating and 29% an unfavorable one.

There are a number of factors in this race that may work to Hayworth’s favor down the stretch.  Most (66%) of New York’s 19^th District voters think the country is on the wrong track, and they tend to give President Barack Obama negative (56%) rather than positive (39%) job performance ratings.  Voters here are also somewhat more likely to prefer having the Republicans (46%) rather than the Democrats (41%) in charge of Congress next year.

The Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 38% of voters in New York’s 19^th District and unfavorably by 55%.  The Republican Party fares a little better at 40% favorable to 52% unfavorable.  The Tea Party movement does slightly better than both major parties at 43% favorable to 49% unfavorable.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 636 likely voters from October 15 to 18, 2010.  This sample has a margin of error of ± 3.9 percent.

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 8 AND 9 WERE ROTATED]

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.  The poll was conducted on October 15-18, 2010 with a random sample of 636 likely voters in New York’s 19^th Congressional District.  The sample was drawn from a list of households with voters who cast ballots in at least two of the last four general elections and further screened for those who say they are either “certain” or “likely” to vote in this November’s election.  The voter list was obtained from Aristotle, Inc. and automated voice interviewing services were provided by Survey USA in Clifton, New Jersey.

For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.