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Monmouth University Polling Institute

NJ Gov: Christie Leads Buono by 24

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Incumbent’s views seen as basically in step with constituents

Chris Christie's sizable re-election margin has increased in the most recent Monmouth University Poll .  New Jersey voters dismiss challenger Barbara Buono's portrait of the incumbent as being out of step with his constituents on key issues.

Garden State voters likely to participate in the November election give Gov. Chris Christie a 59% to 35% lead over state Sen. Barbara Buono.  This 24 point margin is an increase from the 19 to 20 point leads he held in prior Monmouth University polls released earlier this month and in August.

Buono garners support from 63% of Democrats in the current poll, which is significantly lower than the 90% support Christie holds among his fellow Republicans.  Independents give the incumbent a significant 65% to 26% advantage.  These are the same basic dynamics as the past two Monmouth University polls.

Christie maintains a significant advantage over Buono among both men (61% to 34%) and women (57% to 35%).  He trails among black voters - 34% to 55% for Buono - but leads among both white (64% to 31%) and Hispanic (50% to 44%) voters.

"We are looking at a potential 20 point margin in a blue state and an outright win among Hispanic voters.  What more could a 2016 GOP presidential contender ask for?" said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Barbara Buono's campaign message has tried to paint Chris Christie's views on key issues as being outside the mainstream.  It does not appear that her message has taken hold.  Currently, 62% of likely voters say that Christie's views on the issues are generally in line with most New Jerseyans, while only 28% say they are out of step.  On the other hand, a slight plurality of 40% say that Buono's views are out of step compared to 34% who say they are generally in line with most Garden State residents.

Most likely voters (59%) continue to have a favorable opinion of Christie, while just 29% hold an unfavorable view.  Buono's personal ratings are a net negative of 28% favorable and 34% unfavorable.  A sizable number of likely voters (38%) continue to express no opinion of the Democratic nominee with just three weeks to go before the election.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from October 10 to 12, 2013 with 1,606 New Jersey voters likely to vote in the November general election.   This sample has a margin of error of ±  2.5 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

 

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

 

  1. If the election for New Jersey Governor was today, would you vote for Chris Christie, the Republican, Barbara Buono, the Democrat or some other candidate? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] [IF UNDECIDED: At this moment, do you lean toward Chris Christie or lean toward Barbara Buono?]
(with leaners)

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID GENDER

REGION

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female North Central

South

Chris Christie 59% 30% 65% 90% 61% 57% 56% 59% 64%
Barbara Buono 35% 63% 26% 7% 34% 35% 37% 35% 30%
Other candidate 2% 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Undecided 4% 5% 5% 2% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4%

 

TREND: Oct.
2013
Sept.
2013
Aug.
2013
June
2013
Chris Christie 59% 56% 56% 61%
Barbara Buono 35% 37% 36% 31%
Other 2% 3% 3% 4%
Undecided 4% 4% 6% 4%
Unwtd N

1606

615 777

626

 

[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Is your general opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID GENDER REGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female North Central South Christie Buono
Favorable 59% 34% 62% 89% 62% 57% 56% 61% 63% 93% 11% 39%
Unfavorable 29% 51% 23% 8% 27% 31% 31% 29% 27% 2% 78% 26%
No opinion 12% 15% 15% 3% 10% 13% 13% 10% 10% 5% 11% 35%

 

TREND: Oct.
2013
Sept.
2013
Aug.
2013
Favorable 59% 55% 59%
Unfavorable 29% 35% 33%
No opinion 12% 9% 8%
Unwtd N

1606

615

777

 

  1. Is your general opinion of Barbara Buono favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID GENDER REGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female North Central South Christie

Buono

Favorable 28% 48% 22% 9% 30% 26% 28% 30% 26% 6% 72% 18%
Unfavorable 34% 11% 38% 60% 35% 32% 30% 34% 40% 55% 3% 19%
No opinion 38% 40% 41% 32% 35% 42% 42% 36% 34% 39% 25% 64%

 

TREND: Oct.
2013
Sept.
2013
Aug.
2013
Favorable 28% 32% 27%
Unfavorable 34% 35% 25%
No opinion 38% 32% 48%
Unwtd N

1606

615

777

 

[QUESTIONS 4 AND 5 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Are Chris Christie’s views on the issues generally in line or out of step with most New Jerseyans?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID GENDER REGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female North Central South Christie

Buono

In line 62% 41% 66% 86% 63% 61% 60% 63% 63% 90% 20% 49%
Out of step 28% 47% 24% 9% 27% 29% 28% 28% 28% 5% 69% 28%
Not sure 10% 12% 10% 5% 10% 10% 11% 9% 9% 5% 11% 22%

 

  1. Are Barbara Buono’s views on the issues generally in line or out of step with most New Jerseyans?

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID GENDER REGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind

 

Dem

Ind Rep Male Female North Central South Christie

Buono

In line 34% 55% 28% 14% 36% 33% 36% 39% 28% 12% 79% 26%
Out of step 40% 18% 47% 65% 42% 39% 37% 39% 46% 63% 6% 27%
Not sure 25% 27% 25% 21% 22% 28% 27% 23% 25% 25% 15% 47%

 

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 10 to 12, 2013 with a statewide random sample of 1,606 likely voters drawn from a list of registered voters who voted in at least two of the last four general elections, including 824 contacted by interactive voice response (IVR) on a landline telephone, 447 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 335 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey questionnaire design, data weighting and analysis.  For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
LIKELY VOTERS

38% Dem 47% Male   9% 18-34

74% White

34% Ind 53% Female 21% 35-49

12% Black

28% Rep   36% 50-64

  9% Hispanic

    34% 65+

      5% Asian/Other

 

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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