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NJ Senate: Booker Leads Lonegan By 13

Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2013

More say Booker focused on national stage rather than state

Democrat Cory Booker holds a 13 point lead over Republican Steve Lonegan in the race for U.S. Senate, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll.  Despite this advantage, voters say Booker’s ambitions are focused more on grabbing the national spotlight than serving New Jersey.

Booker currently holds a 53% to 40% lead over Lonegan among New Jerseyans likely to vote in the October 16 special election.  This is down slightly from the 16 point edge he held in polls taken in both August and June, but the differences are within the survey’s margin of error.

Booker has solid support among Democratic voters (88%), while Lonegan musters support from 83% of his Republican base.  Independent voters give a statistically insignificant 46% to 40% edge to Booker.

“Monmouth University’s polls have consistently shown this race to be closer than most pundits thought it would be.  While Cory Booker’s lead is relatively sizable, many voters have doubts about his motives in seeking this seat,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll asked voters whether they think Cory Booker wants to become a US Senator more to be on the national stage or more to serve the state of New Jersey.  A 45% plurality say the national spotlight is the main attraction compared to 35% who say Booker’s focus is on the Garden State.  Another 12% say he is pursuing both aims equally.

Not surprisingly, most Republicans (67%) say Booker is attracted to the national platform of being a US Senator, while a majority of Democrats (52%) say he is in it to serve his constituents.  Among independents, 53% say that Booker has his eyes on the national stage compared to 29% who say he is focused on his home state.  Among voters who are still undecided or might change their minds before October 16, 42% think Booker is focused on the national stage, 20% say he is focused on New Jersey, 16% say he is focused on both equally, and 22% are not sure.

“Statewide positive opinion of Cory Booker has been broad, but not necessarily deep.  It’s possible that Steve Lonegan’s attacks have caused many voters to reconsider their opinion of Booker, even if they don’t change their vote,” said Murray.

Cory Booker’s personal rating stands at 54% favorable to 28% unfavorable among likely voters, with 18% having no opinion.  Booker’s favorable rating has declined by 7 points since June, while his unfavorable rating has increased by 13 points.

Steve Lonegan is not as well-known as his Democratic opponent, but voter awareness has increased over the past few months, to 35% favorable and 28% unfavorable, with 38% having no opinion.  In prior polls, between 45% and 49% of likely voters had no opinion of Lonegan.  Since June, Lonegan’s favorable rating has held fairly steady – ranging between 31% and 35% – while his unfavorable rating has increased by 8 points.

A notable change in these approval ratings comes from Republicans.  Currently, 68% of GOP voters have a favorable opinion of Lonegan, which is up 11 points since August.  On the other hand, 53% have an unfavorable opinion of Booker, which represents a 14 point increase in his negative standing among Garden State Republicans since August.

The poll also found that 4-in-10 (41%) voters feel they know a great deal about where Cory Booker stands on issues that are important to them.  Another 36% say they have some awareness of his positions.  About 1-in-4 say they know not much (16%) or nothing at all (7%) about Booker’s positions.

Slightly fewer (36%) voters feel they know a great deal about where Steve Lonegan stands on the issues that are important to them.  Another 31% say they have some awareness of his positions.  About 1-in-3 say they know not much (21%) or nothing at all (12%) about Lonegan’s positions.

Turnout continues to be a big question in this unprecedented situation: a mid-October Wednesday election being held just three weeks before the regularly scheduled November election for governor, state legislature, and a variety of local offices.  If given the choice of voting in only one of those two elections, 29% say they would opt for the special Senate election, which is up slightly from 26% in August and 23% in June.  This suggests that turnout in October could also have an impact on November’s election if more voters than anticipated decide to stay home for the second one.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from September 26 to 29, 2013 with 571 New Jersey voters likely to vote in the October special election.   This sample has a margin of error of ±  4.1 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1. If you could only vote in one election this fall, which one would it be, the special election for U.S. Senate or the regular election for governor and legislature?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY IDGENDERREGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind
  

Dem

IndRepMaleFemaleNorthCentralSouthBooker

Lonegan

Special election29%35%30%21%36%23%34%23%28%33%30%13%
Regular election65%61%63%72%57%72%61%68%66%61%64%81%
Not sure6%4%7%7%7%5%5%9%5%6%6%6%
TREND:Sept.
2013
Aug.
2013
June
2013
Special election29%26%23%
Regular election65%67%71%
Not sure6%7%6%
Unwtd N

571

696

560

2. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Steve Lonegan, the Republican, Cory Booker, the Democrat or some other candidate? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]   [IF UNDECIDED: At this moment, do you lean toward Steve Lonegan or do you lean toward Cory Booker?]

(with leaners)

Likely
Voters

PARTY IDGENDER

REGION

Dem

IndRepMaleFemaleNorthCentral

South

 Steve Lonegan40%8%40%83%44%37%36%41%45%
 Cory Booker53%88%46%14%50%55%57%50%50%
Other candidate3%2%5%0%2%3%3%3%1%
Undecided4%2%8%3%4%5%3%6%4%
TREND:Sept.
2013
Aug.
2013
June
2013
Steve Lonegan40%38%37%
Cory Booker53%54%53%
Other3%2%
Undecided4%5%10%
Unwtd N

571

696

560

[QUESTIONS 3 AND 4 WERE ROTATED]

3. Is your general opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERREGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind

 

Dem

IndRepMaleFemaleNorthCentralSouthBooker

Lonegan

Favorable54%81%50%22%48%60%58%55%48%90%15%41%
Unfavorable28%7%31%53%34%22%26%28%30%3%61%18%
No opinion18%12%19%25%18%18%16%17%21%7%24%40%
TREND:Sept.
2013
Aug.
2013
June
2013
Favorable54%57%61%
Unfavorable28%23%15%
No opinion18%20%24%
Unwtd N

571

696

560

4. Is your general opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERREGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind

 

Dem

IndRepMaleFemaleNorthCentralSouthBooker

Lonegan

Favorable35%10%34%68%41%29%32%33%39%6%79%16%
Unfavorable28%47%24%6%24%31%33%31%17%50%1%17%
No opinion38%43%42%26%35%40%35%35%43%44%20%68%
TREND:Sept.
2013
Aug.
2013
June
2013
Favorable35%31%34%
Unfavorable28%20%20%
No opinion38%49%45%
Unwtd N

571

696

560

5. In the U.S. Senate race, how much do you feel you know about where Cory Booker stands on issues that are important to you – a great deal, some, not much, or nothing at all?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERREGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind

 

Dem

IndRepMaleFemaleNorthCentralSouthBooker

Lonegan

Great deal41%50%41%30%43%39%44%38%41%53%33%11%
Some36%36%39%31%34%37%34%41%33%41%30%39%
Not much16%12%13%23%16%15%14%15%19%5%26%31%
Nothing7%2%6%15%6%8%7%6%8%1%11%16%
Not sure1%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%1%0%1%3%

6. In the U.S. Senate race, how much do you feel you know about where Steve Lonegan stands on issues that are important to you – a great deal, some, not much, or nothing at all?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERREGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind

 

Dem

IndRepMaleFemaleNorthCentralSouthBooker

Lonegan

Great deal36%28%35%46%41%31%34%37%37%28%52%11%
Some31%29%31%32%27%34%30%37%26%33%31%29%
Not much21%29%19%12%19%22%21%19%22%26%10%38%
Nothing12%13%12%10%11%12%14%7%14%13%7%20%
Not sure1%0%3%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%3%

7. Do you think Cory Booker wants to become a U.S. Senator more to be on the national stage or more to serve New Jersey?

 

Likely
Voters

PARTY ID

GENDERREGION

VOTE INTENT

Undecided/
May change
mind

 

Dem

IndRepMaleFemaleNorthCentralSouthBooker

Lonegan

More national stage45%22%53%67%51%40%46%44%44%18%80%42%
More to serve NJ35%52%29%19%31%39%35%35%35%59%9%20%
Both equally12%19%9%6%12%12%14%12%10%18%4%16%
Not sure8%7%9%8%6%10%5%8%11%5%7%22%

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 26 to 29, 2013 with a statewide random sample of 571 likely voters drawn from a list of registered voters who voted in at least two of the last four general elections, including 463 contacted by interactive voice response (IVR) on a landline telephone and 108 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey questionnaire design, data weighting and analysis.  For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
LIKELY VOTERS

38% Dem48% Male10% 18-34

75% White

33% Ind52% Female19% 35-49

13% Black

29% Rep 36% 50-64

  8% Hispanic

  35% 65+

      4% Asian/Other

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with crosstabs