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Christie Continues to Lead Corzine, but it Depends on Who Will Vote

Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009

Electorate remains uncertain about the choices for governor


As New Jersey’s gubernatorial campaign season kicks into high gear, Republican challenger Chris Christie maintains his months-long lead over Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine.  However, the gap has narrowed somewhat since the last  Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll .  Among likely voters, Christie now holds an 8 point advantage over Corzine – 47% to 39% – with 5% for independent Chris Daggett.  While this is similar to the Republican’s lead in July, it is down from the 14 point advantage he held in August, when Christie led Corzine by 50% to 36%.

“A Republican holding a steady poll lead is unprecedented in recent New Jersey elections and this shouldn’t be discounted.  But the results also indicate there is a lot of churning in this electorate.  Despite the incumbent’s continued unpopularity, there is still a sense that anything can happen,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Among GOP voters, Christie leads Corzine by a healthy 82% to 8%.  The Republican also leads among independent voters by 45% to 30%, although this 15 point advantage is smaller than the 20 point lead he held in August and the 23 point lead in July.  Also, the number of independents who say they are undecided in this race now stands at 17%, which is up by 5 points since August.  While this finding is within the survey’s margin of error for independent voters, it could be a sign of increasing uncertainty about the challenger and bears watching.

On the incumbent’s side, Jon Corzine seems to be shoring up support among his base after a summer when Democratic voting groups showed little enthusiasm for their standard bearer.  Corzine now has an 77% to 8% advantage among his fellow Democrats.  This marks a 10 point gain in the governor’s support among his partisan base since July.

Corzine has increased his support among black and Hispanic voters (68%, up from 50% in July) and urban voters (68%, up from 50% in July).  He has also regained some footing among traditionally Democratic labor groups (unions, teachers, and state workers) – now holding 38% of this group’s support compared to 42% for Christie.  The incumbent still has a ways to go to regain the 45% to 34% advantage he had among labor groups in July, but the current poll reading is an improvement from August, when Corzine actually trailed Christie (36% to 45%) among this group.

Another indication that this race is far from settled is how the race stands when the preferences of all registered voters are considered, including those both likely and unlikely to vote on November 3 rd .  Among all registered voters, the “horse race” narrows to basically a tie, 41% for Corzine and 40% for Christie.  The Republican had a 4 point lead among registered voters in the August poll and a 6 point lead in July.

In other poll findings, Governor Corzine’s job approval rating now stands at 37% approve to 52% disapprove among registered voters.  His personal evaluations are 39% favorable to 45% unfavorable.  Both of these results are similar to the job and personal ratings he has held since July.

Chris Christie’s personal standing among registered voters is now 41% favorable to 29% unfavorable.  These results are nearly identical to his personal rating a month ago.  Prior to the current poll, though, Christie’s unfavorable numbers had been steadily climbing.  The current results indicate that last month’s slew of negative media about the Republican challenger did not have much of an impact on voter opinion.

More than half (55%) of the state’s electorate would characterize the tone of this year’s race as negative.  Only 33% say it has been positive.  Among those who see the campaign as negative, 34% blame Corzine more compared to 13% who blame Christie.  However, a majority of 52% say both candidates are equally to blame for the negative tone of the race.

“Negative campaigning in New Jersey is nothing new, but past polling tells us that voters usually don’t notice that negative tone until October.  Getting the electorate to register its disapproval of the campaign’s conduct immediately after Labor Day is truly an accomplishment,” said Murray.

Turning to issues and awareness, a majority of voters say that both Corzine (57%) and Christie (52%) have given them at least some idea of what they would do in their 2010-2014 term as governor, although few voters say either candidate has given them a “clear idea” – 21% for Corzine and 14% for Christie.  Moreover, about 4-in-10 voters say they have little or no idea what either candidate – 37% for Corzine and 42% for Christie – would do in the next four years as governor.

Despite this lack of awareness on issue positions, the challenger continues to be seen as better equipped to handle most of the important issues of the day.  Registered voters see Christie (43%) rather than Corzine (24%) doing a better job on property taxes, an issue which continues to be Garden State voters’ top concern.  Nearly half (46%) name property taxes as one of the most important issues they want the candidates to address.

Christie also has the decided advantage over Corzine on handling corruption (40% to 25%) and a small edge on the state budget (40% to 35%) and the economy and jobs (38% to 34%).  The two candidates run basically even among registered voters on improving New Jersey’s cities (35% Christie to 36% Corzine), while Corzine has a slight edge on health care (35% to 31%).  However, Christie gets the edge on these last two issues among likely voters.

The governor leads his challenger when it comes to dealing with the environment (41% to 24%) and education (44% to 33%).  The poll found some slight shifts in these issue advantages compared to a month ago.  Corzine gained 8 points on handling education, while Christie lost 6 to 7 points on handling corruption and the environment.

The poll also found that independent Chris Daggett, his running mate, and the running mates of the two major party candidates are barely registering a blip in voter awareness.  More than 8-in-10 voters say they have formed no opinion of Daggett (82%) or any of the lieutenant governor candidates, including Democrat Loretta Weinberg (84%), Republican Kim Guadagno (90%), and independent Frank Esposito (91%).

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll  was conducted by telephone with 752 New Jersey registered voters from September 8 to 10, 2009.  This sample has a margin of error of ±  3.6 percent.  This report also includes analysis on a smaller group of 531 “likely voters” with a ± 4.3 percent margin of error.   The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the Gannett New Jersey newspaper group (Asbury Park Press, Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune).

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

  1. If the election for governor was held today, would you vote for Jon Corzine the Democrat, Chris Christie the Republican, Chris Daggett the independent, or some other candidate? [If undecided: At this moment do you lean more towards Corzine or more towards Christie?]  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

Registered Voters

Likely Voters

PARTY ID

Dem

Ind

Rep

Corzine 41% 39% 77% 30% 8%
Christie 40% 47% 8% 45% 82%
Daggett 6% 5% 7% 5% 4%
Other candidate 2% 1% 2% 3% 3%
(VOL) Don’t know 11% 7% 7% 17% 4%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221
TREND:

September
2009

August
2009

July
2009

Reg
voters

Likely
voters
Reg
voters
Likely
voters
Reg
voters

Likely
voters

Corzine 41% 39% 39% 36% 37% 37%
Christie 40% 47% 43% 50% 43% 45%
Daggett 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4%
Other candidate 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1%
(VOL) Don’t know   11% 7% 10% 8% 15% 13%
Unwtd N  

752

531 723 484 792

527

Support among Democratic voter groups

Vote choice

Democrats

Black &
Hispanic
Urban

Union/
Teacher/
State worker
households

September
2009

Corzine 77% 68% 68% 38%
Christie 8% 15% 12% 42%
Other 9% 8% 9% 10%
Undecided 7% 10% 11% 9%

August
2009

Corzine 73% 65% 51% 36%
Christie 14% 19% 37% 45%
Other 5% 8% 6% 9%
Undecided 8% 8% 7% 10%

July
2009

Corzine 67% 50% 50% 45%
Christie 17% 24% 30% 34%
Other 4% 8% 4% 9%
Undecided 11% 18% 15% 12%
Margin of
error

±6%

±10% ±10%

±6%

Composite Table: Strength of Vote Choice

If the election for governor was held today, would you vote for [ROTATE]: Jon Corzine the Democrat, Chris Christie the Republican, Chris Daggett the independent, or some other candidate? [If undecided: At this moment do you lean more towards Corzine or more towards Christie?]  [If answered Corzine or Christie to Q1: Are you very sure about voting for [NAME]; or might you change your mind before Election Day?]

TREND:

September 2009

August 2009

July 2009

 

Reg
Voters

Likely
Voters
Reg
Voters
Likely
Voters
Reg
Voters

Likely
Voters

Sure Corzine 26% 26% 23% 24% 24% 25%
Weak Corzine 11% 10% 10% 7% 8% 8%
Lean Corzine 5% 3% 6% 5% 5% 4%
Undecided-Other 18% 13% 17% 14% 21% 18%
Lean Christie 4% 3% 9% 8% 9% 8%
Weak Christie 9% 10% 9% 11% 10% 8%
Sure Christie 27% 34% 25% 31% 24% 29%
Unwtd N

752

531 723 484 792

527

  1. Please tell me if your general impression of the following candidates is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t have an opinion. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

 

Jon Corzine

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Favorable 39% 37% 69% 29% 10% 87% 3% 26%
Unfavorable 45% 53% 15% 50% 79% 4% 90% 27%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 16% 10% 16% 21% 11% 10% 7% 48%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered 
voters
Sept.
2009
Aug.
2009
July
2009
April
2009
Jan.
2009
July
2008
Sept.
2006
Favorable 39% 39% 38% 43% 49% 43% 46%
Unfavorable 45% 46% 46% 47% 38% 44% 30%
No opinion/
Don’t recognize
16% 15% 16% 9% 12% 12% 24%
Unwtd N  

752

723 792 690 413 889

630

Chris Christie

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Favorable 41% 48% 15% 44% 72% 10% 90% 15%
Unfavorable 29% 30% 49% 22% 11% 55% 2% 20%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 30% 22% 35% 34% 16% 34% 9% 64%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered 
voters
Sept.
2009
Aug.
2009
July
2009
April
2009
Jan.
2009
July
2008
Favorable 41% 42% 43% 41% 42% 30%
Unfavorable 29% 30% 24% 16% 12% 9%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 30% 28% 34% 43% 46% 62%
Unwtd N  

752

723 792 690 413

889

Chris Daggett

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Favorable 10% 11% 10% 10% 11% 4% 8% 5%
Unfavorable 7% 6% 8% 7% 5% 11% 5% 4%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 82% 83% 82% 83% 85% 85% 86% 91%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

 

TREND:
Registered voters

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009
July
2009

April
2009

Favorable 10% 9% 6% 5%
Unfavorable 7% 9% 9% 6%
No opinion/
Don’t recognize
82% 82% 86% 89%
Unwtd N  

752

723 792 690
  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jon Corzine is doing as governor?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Approve 37% 34% 67% 26% 12% 80% 3% 30%
Disapprove 52% 58% 21% 60% 84% 8% 93% 48%
(VOL) Don’t know 11% 9% 12% 14% 4% 13% 4% 23%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009
July
2009
April
2009
Feb.
2009
Jan.
2009
Oct.
2008
Sept.
2008
July
2008
April
2008
March
2008
Jan.
2008
Oct.
2007
July
2007
April
2007
Feb.
2007
Sept.
2006
July
2006

April
2006

 Approve 37% 38% 38% 40% 34% 43% 38% 40% 39% 36% 34% 42% 47% 46% 52% 44% 44% 40% 33%
 Disapprove 52% 54% 51% 49% 51% 40% 45% 49% 47% 53% 55% 46% 34% 36% 30% 36% 41% 41% 38%
 (VOL) Don’t know 11% 8% 12% 11% 15% 17% 18% 11% 14% 11% 11% 12% 19% 17% 17% 20% 16% 19% 29%
 Unwtd N

752

723 792 690 721 413 900 709 889 720 719 698 688 678 668 681 663 670

652

[QUESTIONS 4 AND 5 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Has Jon Corzine given you a clear idea, some idea, not much of an idea, or no idea at all about what he would do in his second term as governor?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Clear idea 21% 25% 22% 20% 19% 26% 25% 7%
Some idea 36% 33% 49% 33% 21% 53% 19% 39%
Not much of an idea 17% 16% 13% 16% 24% 11% 21% 19%
No idea at all 20% 22% 10% 23% 32% 5% 31% 22%
(VOL) Don’t know 6% 3% 6% 7% 4% 4% 4% 14%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

Sept.
2009

July
2009

Clear idea 21% 25%
Some idea 36% 35%
Not much of an idea 17% 14%
No idea at all 20% 19%
(VOL) Don’t know   6% 6%
Unwtd N  

752

792

  1. Has Chris Christie given you a clear idea, some idea, not much of an idea, or no idea at all about what he would as governor?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Clear idea 14% 16% 9% 13% 21% 9% 25% 5%
Some idea 38% 42% 26% 41% 53% 23% 60% 30%
Not much of an idea 21% 20% 27% 20% 15% 27% 10% 27%
No idea at all 21% 18% 30% 21% 10% 33% 4% 27%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 3% 7% 5% 1% 7% 1% 11%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

Sept.
2009

July
2009

Clear idea 14% 13%
Some idea 38% 42%
Not much of an idea 21% 16%
No idea at all 21% 21%
(VOL) Don’t know   5% 7%
Unwtd N  

752

792

  1. In your opinion, what are the most important one or two issues that the candidates for governor should talk about? [Note: Results add to more than 100% because multiple responses were accepted]

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Property taxes 46% 50% 36% 51% 54% 31% 60% 43%
Income tax 7% 8% 3% 8% 11% 2% 11% 9%
Sales tax 2% 3% 0% 2% 3% 1% 4% 2%
Other tax 6% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 8% 4%
Jobs 15% 15% 20% 14% 10% 20% 12% 13%
Cost of living/affordability 2% 2% 4% 2% 1% 3% 0% 3%
The economy/downturn in general 20% 21% 21% 20% 21% 26% 16% 15%
Development/building boom 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Roads/traffic/congestion 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1%
Health care/prescription drug costs 20% 16% 28% 13% 17% 29% 12% 12%
Environment 2% 2% 4% 2% 1% 5% 1% 1%
Same-sex/Gay marriage 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Immigration 1% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Corruption/government ethics 8% 9% 2% 11% 10% 3% 14% 2%
Education/schools 18% 19% 28% 10% 15% 26% 10% 23%
State Budget/Govt spending 10% 11% 8% 10% 13% 8% 14% 7%
Crime, safety, police 3% 2% 5% 3% 2% 6% 1% 1%
Abortion 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 0%
Other 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 2% 4% 7% 2% 3% 3% 13%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009
July
2009
April
2009

Jan.
2009

Property taxes 46% 43% 45% 48% 38%
Income tax 7% 7% 7% 12% 6%
Sales tax 2% 3% 4% 7% 4%
Other tax 6% 6% 5% 6% 2%
Jobs 15% 16% 18% 14% 19%
Cost of living/affordability 2% 2% 4% 3% 3%
The economy/downturn in general 20% 21% 23% 33% 35%
Development/building boom 0% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Roads/traffic/congestion 2% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Health care/prescription drug costs 20% 17% 18% 13% 14%
Environment 2% 1% 2% 5% 2%
Same-sex/Gay marriage 0% 1% 0% 2% 1%
Immigration 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%
Corruption/government ethics 8% 13% 4% 4% 6%
Education/schools 18% 10% 12% 18% 18%
State Budget/Govt spending 10% 13% 18% 5% 6%
Crime, safety, police 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Energy/fuel/gas prices 0% 0% 1% n/a n/a
Abortion 1% 1% 1% n/a n/a
Other 3% 3% 3% 6% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 7% 3% 4% 5%
Unwtd N

752

723 792 690

413

  1. Regardless of who you may support for governor… Who would do a better job on [READ ITEM] – Jon Corzine or Chris Christie? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

The economy and jobs

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Corzine better 34% 35% 61% 25% 10% 78% 2% 17%
Christie better 38% 46% 10% 44% 72% 5% 85% 20%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 4%
(VOL) Neither 9% 8% 8% 11% 6% 4% 3% 19%
(VOL) Don’t know 17% 9% 18% 20% 11% 12% 8% 40%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

ECONOMY & JOBS*

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Jan.
2009

Corzine better 34% 35% 38%
Christie better 38% 40% 33%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2% 1%
(VOL) Neither 9% 8% 4%
(VOL) Don’t know 17% 15% 23%
Unwtd N

752

723

413

*  Jan. 09 wording was “The economy”

 

Property taxes

Registered
Voters

Likely Voters PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Corzine better 24% 25% 44% 18% 6% 57% 1% 15%
Christie better 43% 49% 16% 47% 75% 11% 88% 21%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3%
(VOL) Neither 11% 10% 13% 12% 6% 10% 2% 20%
(VOL) Don’t know 20% 14% 26% 21% 10% 21% 7% 41%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

PROPERTY TAXES

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Jan.
2009

Corzine better 24% 27% 32%
Christie better 43% 45% 36%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2% 1%
(VOL) Neither 11% 9% 4%
(VOL) Don’t know 20% 18% 27%
Unwtd N

752

723

413

The state budget

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Corzine better 35% 32% 61% 27% 10% 78% 3% 19%
Christie better 40% 48% 12% 45% 72% 4% 89% 19%
(VOL) Both equally 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% 3%
(VOL) Neither 9% 8% 9% 9% 6% 5% 1% 17%
(VOL) Don’t know 15% 11% 16% 19% 11% 11% 6% 41%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

STATE BUDGET

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Jan.
2009

Corzine better 35% 32% 37%
Christie better 40% 44% 34%
(VOL) Both equally 1% 2% 1%
(VOL) Neither 9% 7% 4%
(VOL) Don’t know 15% 15% 24%
Unwtd N

752

723

413

Education

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Corzine better 44% 43% 75% 33% 14% 85% 7% 36%
Christie better 33% 38% 13% 36% 59% 5% 74% 14%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 3% 1% 2% 5% 1% 3% 3%
(VOL) Neither 6% 5% 4% 5% 8% 1% 4% 11%
(VOL) Don’t know 15% 11% 7% 24% 14% 8% 12% 36%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

EDUCATION

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Jan.
2009

Corzine better 44% 36% 39%
Christie better 33% 36% 29%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2% 1%
(VOL) Neither 6% 6% 3%
(VOL) Don’t know 15% 20% 28%
Unwtd N

752

723

413

Reducing corruption

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Corzine better 25% 24% 47% 17% 6% 56% 3% 15%
Christie better 40% 46% 14% 45% 70% 7% 84% 24%
(VOL) Both equally 3% 3% 4% 2% 1% 4% 1% 3%
(VOL) Neither 15% 15% 15% 17% 10% 16% 7% 19%
(VOL) Don’t know 17% 13% 20% 17% 12% 17% 5% 38%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

CORRUPTION

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Jan.
2009

Corzine better 25% 28% 25%
Christie better 40% 46% 43%
(VOL) Both equally 3% 2% 1%
(VOL) Neither 15% 10% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 17% 13% 26%
Unwtd N

752

723

413

The environment

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Corzine better 41% 41% 68% 30% 20% 77% 14% 23%
Christie better 24% 30% 8% 24% 47% 3% 56% 9%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 3% 2%
(VOL) Neither 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 5% 6% 13%
(VOL) Don’t know 24% 19% 14% 36% 23% 13% 21% 53%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

ENVIRONMENT

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Corzine better 41% 37%
Christie better 24% 31%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2%
(VOL) Neither 9% 7%
(VOL) Don’t know 24% 22%
Unwtd N

752

723

Improving our cities

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Corzine better 36% 34% 65% 26% 11% 78% 4% 20%
Christie better 35% 41% 13% 35% 65% 6% 76% 15%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2%
(VOL) Neither 8% 8% 5% 12% 6% 3% 5% 14%
(VOL) Don’t know 19% 15% 15% 25% 17% 11% 12% 48%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

IMPROVING CITIES

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Corzine better 36% 35%
Christie better 35% 38%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2%
(VOL) Neither 8% 7%
(VOL) Don’t know 19% 18%
Unwtd N

752

723

Health care

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Corzine better 35% 34% 66% 24% 10% 78% 3% 21%
Christie better 31% 36% 7% 34% 58% 5% 71% 11%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
(VOL) Neither 10% 11% 8% 11% 10% 6% 7% 12%
(VOL) Don’t know 22% 17% 17% 29% 19% 10% 17% 53%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:

Registered voters

HEALTH CARE

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Corzine better 35% 36%
Christie better 31% 35%
(VOL) Both equally 2% 2%
(VOL) Neither 10% 9%
(VOL) Don’t know 22% 18%
Unwtd N

752

723

  1. So far, would you characterize the governor’s race as being generally positive or negative?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Positive 33% 30% 44% 28% 26% 48% 25% 26%
Negative 55% 62% 46% 57% 63% 43% 66% 53%
(VOL) Both positive

and negative

4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 5% 2% 4%
(VOL) Neither 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2%
(VOL) Don’t know 6% 3% 4% 10% 5% 4% 6% 15%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

 [The following question was asked only of those who said “Negative” or “Both” to Q8 moe= ± 4.5%]

  1. Who has been more negative – Corzine or Christie, or both equally?

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

   

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Corzine 34% 35% 13% 42% 45% 7% 62% 25%
Christie 13% 12% 21% 11% 8% 26% 3% 13%
Both equally 52% 52% 65% 47% 46% 65% 34% 62%
(VOL) Don’t know 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0%
Unwtd N

481

361 140 181 147 137 213

80

  1. I’m going to name the lieutenant governor candidates.  Please tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion.  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

Loretta Weinberg

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Favorable 8% 9% 12% 7% 6% 10% 5% 4%
Unfavorable 8% 11% 7% 9% 9% 6% 14% 3%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 84% 80% 81% 84% 84% 83% 80% 92%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311 131
TREND:
Registered voters

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Favorable 8% 13%
Unfavorable 8% 7%
No opinion/
Don’t recognize
84% 79%
Unwtd N  

752

723

Kim Guadagno

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Favorable 8% 8% 6% 10% 9% 3% 13% 3%
Unfavorable 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 90% 89% 91% 87% 87% 95% 83% 95%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Favorable 8% 8%
Unfavorable 3% 2%
No opinion/
Don’t recognize
90% 90%
Unwtd N  

752

723

Frank Esposito

Registered
Voters

Likely
Voters
PARTY ID

VOTE CHOICE

Dem

Ind Rep Corzine Christie

Undecided

Favorable 6% 5% 8% 6% 4% 7% 4% 6%
Unfavorable 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 6%
No opinion/Don’t recognize 91% 91% 90% 90% 93% 91% 95% 88%
Unwtd N

752

531 239 278 221 243 311

131

TREND:
Registered voters

Sept.
2009

Aug.
2009

Favorable 6% 7%
Unfavorable 3% 2%
No opinion/
Don’t recognize
91% 91%
Unwtd N  

752

723

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted and analyzed by the Monmouth University Polling Institute research staff.  The telephone interviews were collected on September 8-10, 2009 with a statewide random sample of 752 registered voters. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS

Registered Voter Sample (weighted)

38% Dem 48% Male 21% 18-34

74% White

37% Ind 52% Female 44% 35-54

12% Black

26% Rep   35% 55+

12% Hispanic

     

  3% Asian/Other

Likely Voter Sample (weighted)

35% Dem 49% Male 15% 18-34

77% White

36% Ind 51% Female 47% 35-54

  9% Black

29% Rep   38% 55+

10% Hispanic

     

  4% Asian/Other

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables