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Corzine Job Approval Down

Sunday, July 22, 2007

Public split on releasing Katz emails


Early in his term, Governor Jon Corzine responded to low job performance ratings with the comment that his efforts to reform state government were more of a marathon rather than a sprint.  The current Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll  finds that a year and a half into this long distance run, New Jerseyans are still waiting for him to break from the pack.

Through the first year of his term, Governor Corzine’s job approval did climb slowly but steadily, reaching a high point of 51% in April.  This rating came on the heels of successful contract negotiations with state workers’ unions and in the midst of his auto accident.  That uptick has now taken a downturn.

Currently, 46% of the New Jersey public approve of how their governor is handling his job compared to 36% who disapprove.  The decline has come mainly from his fellow partisans.  A majority 57% of Democrats approve of the job he is doing compared to only 27% who disapprove, but this is down substantially from the 74%-14% support he enjoyed in April.  Among other groups, independents are slightly more favorable than not on Corzine’s performance by a 43%-37% margin (similar to 45%-36% in April) while Republicans disapprove 36%-50% (similar to 33%-50% in April).

When asked to grade the Corzine administration in a number of key areas, the public are only able to muster C’s and D’s.  His overall average is a “C”, which matches the grade he received in the last Monmouth/Gannett report card issued in September 2006.  Broken down by partisanship, he averages a “C+” among Democrats, a “C-” among Republicans, and a “C-” among independents.

“It’s now a year and a half into his term, and Corzine has failed to bowl over the public,” commented Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “He gets a little credit on providing property tax relief, but very little.”

One slight improvement in the governor’s report card is in the area of property taxes.  Currently, 28% of residents feel he has earned an A or B on this issue and 24% give him a C.  In September, only 20% mustered an A or B grade. However, since 42% of the public still give the governor a D or F, his average property tax grade is “C-“, up just half a grade from the D+ he earned in prior report cards.

Jon Corzine, Governor

July 2007  Report Card

Subject

A/B

C

D/F

Incomplete

Average Grade

Sept 2006

April   2006

Cost-Cutting

28%

31%

35%

6%

C-

C-

C

Property Taxes

28%

24%

42%

6%

C-

D+

D+

Government Ethics

34%

28%

33%

5%

C

C

C

Cost of Living

23%

20%

54%

3%

D+

D+

D+

Schools

33%

31%

26%

10%

C

C

C

Keeping Promises

29%

31%

29%

11%

C

n/a

C-

Level of Effort

51%

27%

18%

4%

B-

B-

C+

Overall grade

C

C

C

Importantly, Governor Corzine continues to receive particularly poor grades for making New Jersey a more affordable place to live, which was a key theme in his 2005 campaign. In this area, only 23% of residents feel he has earned an A or B and 20% give him a C.  A majority of 54% say he earns a D or is failing in this subject.  These individual grades are slightly better than September’s report card, but not enough to raise the governor’s overall “D+” average in this area.

Corzine’s best policy subjects – relatively speaking – continue to be in the areas of government ethics and schools, where he maintains his “C” average from past report cards.  On bringing ethics and honesty to government, he receives an A or B from 34%, a C from 28%, and a D or F from 33%.  On improving schools, he receives an A or B from 33%, a C from 31%, and a D or F from 26%.

The governor also continues to average a “C-“on controlling costs and cutting waste.  This includes receiving an A or B from 28%, a C from 31%, and a D or F from 35%, which is basically identical to earlier grades on this subject.

The current report card gives the governor a “C” on keeping his campaign promises, with 29% saying he has earned an A or B in this area, 31% a C, and 29% a D or F.

His highest grade continues to be for the level of effort he puts into working on behalf of the state.  Here he earns a “B-“, including 51% who grade him an A or B for effort, 27% who grade him a C, and 18% who give poor marks of D or F.

“The governor may be working hard, but he doesn’t seem to be getting anywhere according to New Jerseyans,” Murray remarked. “Public opinion gains Corzine made largely due to his leadership on the union negotiations have evaporated.  Post-contract concessions on health benefits and questions about private communications with a union leader have diminished much of the good will he generated earlier this year.”

About half (49%) of the New Jersey public have heard reports about emails Corzine exchanged with Carla Katz, a former girlfriend who heads one of the CWA locals involved in the state contract negotiations this year.  Among those who are aware of this issue, residents are split on whether the governor should be forced to release these communications – 20% say he should have to release them, 20% say he should be able to keep them private and 9% have no opinion either way.  Not surprisingly, Democrats say he should be able to keep them private by a 2-to-1 margin, Republicans say they should be released by a 2-to-1 margin, and independents are evenly divided on the issue.

In other poll findings, half of New Jerseyans (50%) believe the state is on the wrong track while 39% feel it is heading in the right direction.  This marks a slight 6 percentage point increase in the “right direction” number since April of this year.

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll  was conducted by telephone with 800 New Jersey adults from July 16 to 19, 2007.  This sample has a margin of error of   ±  3.5 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the Gannett New Jersey newspaper group (Asbury Park Press, Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, Home News Tribune, and Ocean County Observer).

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

  1. Would you say things in New Jersey are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

REGION OF STATE

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female North Central

South

Right direction 39% 36% 49% 47% 36% 33% 43% 36% 46% 31% 34%
Wrong track 50% 52% 40% 43% 52% 57% 42% 57% 42% 58% 57%
(VOL) Depends 6% 6% 4% 6% 5% 6% 8% 3% 5% 5% 6%
(VOL) Don’t know 6% 5% 8% 4% 7% 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 3%
  Unwtd N  

800

678 122 234 334 190 381 419 363 179

241

  TREND:

July
2007

April
2007
Feb.
2007
Sept.
2006
July
2006
April
2006

Sept.
2005

  Right direction 39% 33% 34% 29% 27% 30% 31%
  Wrong track 50% 51% 55% 58% 62% 55% 54%
  (VOL) Depends 6% 8% 6% 6% 4% 9% 5%
  (VOL) Don’t know 6% 8% 6% 7% 7% 6% 10%
  Unwtd N

800

804 801 800 802 803

800

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jon Corzine is doing as governor?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

REGION OF STATE

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female North Central

South

Approve 46% 46% 45% 57% 43% 36% 47% 45% 54% 42% 37%
Disapprove 36% 36% 34% 27% 37% 50% 36% 36% 28% 45% 42%
(VOL) Don’t know 18% 17% 21% 17% 20% 14% 17% 19% 18% 14% 21%
  Unwtd N  

800

678 122 234 334 190 381 419 363 179

241

  TREND:

July
2007

April
2007
Feb.
2007
Sept.
2006
July
2006

April

2006

  Approve 46% 51% 44% 42% 37% 34%
  Disapprove 36% 29% 34% 38% 43% 37%
  (VOL) Don’t know 18% 20% 22% 20% 20% 29%
  Unwtd N

800

804 801 800 802

803

  1. I’d like you to grade the Corzine administration on how it has handled specific issues over the past few months. For each one I read, please give a letter grade of A, B, C, D or F for failing.  What grade would you give the Corzine administration for … ?

Controlling costs and cutting waste

July
2007

Sept.
2006

April
2006

A – Highest grade 7% 7% 5%
B 21% 19% 20%
C 31% 31% 29%
D 15% 13% 14%
F – Failing grade 20% 21% 20%
(VOL) Don’t know 6% 9% 13%
Unwtd N

800

800

803

Providing property tax relief

July
2007

Sept.
2006

April
2006

A – Highest grade 8% 5% 5%
B 20% 15% 12%
C 24% 25% 21%
D 16% 14% 15%
F – Failing grade 26% 31% 35%
(VOL) Don’t know 6% 9% 13%
Unwtd N

800

800

803

Bringing ethics and honesty back to state government

July
2007

Sept.
2006

April
2006

A – Highest grade 8% 11% 8%
B 26% 25% 27%
C 28% 28% 24%
D 15% 13% 12%
F – Failing grade 18% 15% 17%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 7% 11%
Unwtd N

800

800

803

Making New Jersey a more affordable place to live

July
2007

Sept.
2006

April
2006

A – Highest grade 7% 7% 5%
B 16% 10% 10%
C 20% 24% 23%
D 21% 17% 14%
F – Failing grade 33% 38% 40%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 9%
Unwtd N

800

800

803

Improving our schools

July
2007

Sept.
2006

April
2006

A – Highest grade 7% 10% 8%
B 26% 21% 19%
C 31% 30% 28%
D 12% 15% 14%
F – Failing grade 14% 12% 16%
(VOL) Don’t know 10% 13% 15%
Unwtd N

800

800

803

  1. What grade would you give the governor for the level of effort he puts into working for New Jersey?

July
2007

Sept.
2006

April
2006

A – Highest grade 18% 22% 16%
B 33% 28% 26%
C 27% 27% 29%
D 9% 9% 11%
F – Failing grade 9% 8% 11%
(VOL) Don’t know 4% 5% 8%
Unwtd N

800

800

803

 

  1. And what grade would you give him for keeping his campaign promises?

July
2007

April
2006

A – Highest grade 6% 5%
B 23% 19%
C 31% 26%
D 14% 13%
F – Failing grade 15% 24%
(VOL) Don’t know 11% 13%
Unwtd N

800

803

 

  1. Have you read or heard about the issue surrounding emails Governor Corzine exchanged with Carla Katz, a former girlfriend who currently heads a state worker’s union? [IF “YES”:] Should the governor have to publicly release emails he exchanged with her during the state worker contract negotiations or should he be allowed to keep these emails private, or do you have no strong opinion either way?

TOTAL

REGISTERED
VOTER
PARTY ID GENDER

REGION OF STATE

 

Yes

No Dem Ind Rep Male Female North Central

South

Publicly release 20% 24% 7% 12% 22% 31% 21% 19% 17% 26% 20%
Keep private 20% 20% 21% 22% 22% 15% 22% 19% 19% 20% 23%
No opinion 9% 11% 5% 10% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 14% 6%
Not aware of issue 51% 45% 68% 55% 47% 45% 49% 52% 54% 40% 51%
  Unwtd N  

800

678 122 234 334 190 381 419 363 179

241

Results for this Monmouth University/Gannett NJ Poll are based on telephone interviews conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute on July 16-19, 2007 with a statewide random sample of 800 adult residents.  For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample.  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

It is the Monmouth University Polling Institute’s policy to conduct surveys of all adult New Jersey residents, including voters and non-voters, on issues which affect the state.  Specific voter surveys are conducted when appropriate during election cycles.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables