Long Branch, NJ – Hillary Clinton has a 5 point lead over
Donald Trump in Wisconsin according to the Monmouth University Poll. In the race for U.S. Senate, Russ Feingold
has a sizable 13 point lead in his bid to retake the seat held by Ron Johnson.
Among Wisconsin voters likely
to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 43% currently support
Clinton and 38% back Trump. Another 7%
intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 3% back Jill Stein of the Green
Party, and 8% are undecided. Slightly
more Democrats back Clinton (89%) than Republicans who back Trump (83%). Independents are divided at 37% for Trump and
34% for Clinton, with 10% supporting Johnson and 6% supporting Stein.
Trump leads among white
voters by a slim 2 points (42% to 40%), similar to the 3 point margin Mitt
Romney had with this group in 2012 (51% to 48%). Trump is doing better than Romney among white
men – 51% to 29% compared to Romney’s 56% to 42% win – but worse among white
women – losing 33% to 50% for Clinton compared to Romney’s 46% to 53% loss to
Barack Obama. Clinton leads by 55 points
among black, Hispanic, and Asian voters (67% to 12%), similar to Obama’s 60
point win (79% to 19%) with this group four years ago.
“The current presidential
election race in Wisconsin is looking a lot like the 2012 contest right now,”
said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling
Wisconsin voters tend to be
even more negative about the two major party nominees than voters in the rest
of the country. Just 34% in the Badger
State have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 50% have an unfavorable view of
her, while only 26% have a favorable opinion of Trump and 57% have an
unfavorable view of him.
Clinton also does slightly
better when it comes to “looking out for the little guy.” While 43% say the Democratic nominee would do
a good job at this, 49% say she would do a bad job. Trump scores worse on this metric with 35%
who say he would do a good job looking out for the little guy and 56% who say
he would do a bad job.
Recent events in Milwaukee
have put race relations firmly on the presidential agenda in Wisconsin. More voters think Clinton (56%) rather than
Trump (33%) will do a better job of handling this issue nationally.
While the presidential race
is fairly close, the same cannot be said for the U.S. Senate election. Democrat Russ Feingold holds a sizable 54% to
41% lead over incumbent Ron Johnson, with 2% supporting Libertarian Phil
Anderson and just 3% who are undecided.
Six years ago, Johnson unseated then-incumbent Feingold by a narrower 5
point margin in that year’s Republican wave.
“It looks like Feingold could
get a bit of redemption for that stinging loss in 2010,” said Murray.
Johnson still has some
potential to mount a comeback since his job performance rating registers a net
positive of 44% approve and 38% disapprove.
However, Feingold is better known and better liked overall. Voters’ personal ratings of Feingold stand at
46% favorable and 26% unfavorable, with 28% having no opinion. Johnson’s personal ratings are 34% favorable
and 30% unfavorable, with 36% having no opinion.
More than 9-in-10 Clinton
voters (92%) are voting party line by supporting Feingold, while 6% are backing
Johnson. Fewer Trump voters (84%) are
staying in the Republican column by backing Johnson, while 15% are supporting
The Monmouth University
Poll was conducted by telephone from August 27 to 30, 2016 with 404 Wisconsin
residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9
percent. The poll was conducted by the
Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
QUESTIONS AND RESULTS
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due
1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary
Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green
[IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one
of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward – Donald
Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE
38% Donald Trump
43% Hillary Clinton
3. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Ron
Johnson the Republican, Russ Feingold the Democrat, or Phil Anderson the
Libertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you
had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean
toward – Ron Johnson or Russ Feingold?] [NAMES
2% Phil Anderson
3% (VOL) Undecided
of who you may support for president…
& 5 WERE ROTATED]
your general impression of Donald Trump
favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
your general impression of Hillary
Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?
& 7 WERE ROTATED]
you think Donald Trump as president would do a good job or bad job of looking
out for the little guy?
9% (VOL) Don’t know
you think Hillary Clinton as president would do a good job or bad job of
looking out for the little guy?
43% Good job
49% Bad job
9% (VOL) Don’t know
Turning to the Senate race…
& 9 WERE ROTATED]
your general impression of Ron Johnson favorable or unfavorable, or do you have
no opinion of him?
your general impression of Russ Feingold favorable or unfavorable, or do you
have no opinion of him?
you approve or disapprove of the job Ron Johnson is doing as U.S. senator?
& 12 WERE ROTATED]
11. Is Ron
Johnson too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or does he give
the right amount of support to Trump?
amount of support
12. Is Russ
Feingold too supportive of Hillary Clinton, not supportive enough, or does he
give the right amount of support to Clinton?
16% Too supportive
44% Right amount of support
35% (VOL) Don’t know
On another topic…
would do a better job handling race relations in the country –Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University
Polling Institute from August 27 to 30, 2016 with a random sample of 404 likely
Wisconsin voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in
English, including 354 drawn from a list of registered voters (203 landline
/ 151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone
interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the
survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for
age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census
information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field),
Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on
this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to
sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points
(unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for
sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should
bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting
surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Click on pdf file
link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.