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Monmouth University Polling Institute

Neck and Neck for Prez; Blunt Has Small Senate Lead

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Democrat leads in governor’s race

West Long Branch, NJ  - The presidential race in Missouri couldn't be closer according to the Monmouth University Poll , with Donald Trump holding an insignificant single point lead over Hillary Clinton.  Republican senator Roy Blunt has a small 5 point edge in his bid for a second term, while Democrat Chris Koster holds a sizable 11 point lead in the race to succeed Jay Nixon as governor.

Among Missouri voters likely to cast ballots in November's presidential election, 44% currently support Trump and 43% back Clinton.  Another 8% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% name another candidate, and 5% are undecided.

Trump does as well as Clinton in getting the backing of fellow partisans, with 87% of Republicans supporting their party's nominee and 88% of Democrats backing their standard bearer.  Independents are divided at 40% for Trump and 35% for Clinton, with 14% supporting Johnson.

Clinton leads by 65 points among black, Hispanic, and Asian voters (78% to 13%), while Trump leads by 13 points among white voters (50% to 37%).  In 2012, Barack Obama won non-white voters by 73 points, while Mitt Romney took the white vote by a commanding 33 points.  Trump is currently doing better among white women (54% to 36%) in Missouri than he is among white men (45% to 37%).  This gender gap is the opposite of what the Monmouth University Poll  has been finding among white voters in other states as well as its national polls where Trump has been doing better with men than women.

"The race was a squeaker the last time there was a vacancy in the Oval Office.  In that respect, this year looks more like 2008 than 2012 when Romney won the state by ten points," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Missouri voters give nearly identical ratings to the two major party nominees.  Just 33% have a favorable opinion of Trump and 53% have an unfavorable view, while 32% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 56% have an unfavorable view.

The findings are similar when it comes to "looking out for the little guy."  Only 38% say Trump would do a good job at this while 54% say he would do a bad job.  Likewise, just 40% say Clinton would do a good job looking out for the little guy while 52% say she would do a bad job.

Clinton does have an advantage, though, when it comes to handling race relations - an issue that is particularly salient in Missouri after the events in Ferguson two years ago.  A majority of voters (53%) say Clinton would do a better job at this compared to 34% who prefer Trump on the issue of race relations.  Both white (49% to 37%) and non-white (81% to 13%) voters prefer Clinton over Trump to handle race relations in the country.

Turning to the U.S. Senate race, GOP incumbent Roy Blunt holds a 48% to 43% lead over his Democratic challenger, Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander.  Another 3% say they will vote for Libertarian Jonathan Dine and 7% are undecided.  Blunt has the support of 88% of Republicans while Kander has the backing of 88% of Democrats.  Independents prefer Blunt by 47% to 36%.

Blunt earns a positive job rating from Missouri voters - 45% approve and 35% disapprove, with 1-in-5 (20%) having no opinion of his performance.  Voters are more divided, though, on their personal opinion of Blunt - 33% have a favorable view and 28% hold an unfavorable opinion, with 40% who have no real opinion of him.  The challenger Kander is less well-known, earning a 29% favorable and 9% unfavorable personal rating, with 62% who have formed no opinion of him.

"Blunt is one of the first-termers that Democrats have targeted in their bid to retake the Senate.  While he currently holds a small lead, Republican weakness elsewhere on the ballot provides the challenger with an opening," said Murray.

In the contest just below U.S. Senate on the ballot, Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster holds a significant 51% to 40% lead over political newcomer and former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens in the race for governor.  Another 3% say they will vote for Libertarian Cisse Spragins and 6% are undecided.

Koster has stronger support among Democratic voters (93%) than Greitens does among Republicans (83%).  The GOP nominee won a sharply contested primary with little more than one-third of the vote.  Independents currently prefer Koster by a sizable 49% to 37%.

Even though Koster holds statewide office, neither candidate is a household name.  Just over a third (37%) have a favorable opinion of Koster and 14% have an unfavorable view, with 49% expressing no opinion of him.  For Greitens, 30% have a favorable opinion and 15% have an unfavorable view, with 55% having no opinion of him personally.

Koster has an edge over Greitens (37% to 26%) when it comes to handling the hot-button issue of race relations in Missouri, although 5% trust neither candidate to deal with this issue and 32% are not sure which candidate would do a better job.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from August 19 to 22 2016 with 401 Missouri residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

                                             

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS                                                               

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)         

1/2.   If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, or Gary Johnson the Libertarian?  [ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

44%     Donald Trump

43%     Hillary Clinton

8%     Gary Johnson

1%     (VOL) Other candidate

5%     (VOL) Undecided

                                                                                                                               

3.      If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Roy Blunt the Republican, Jason Kander the Democrat, or Jonathan Dine the Libertarian?  [ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Roy Blunt or Jason Kander?]   [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

48%     Roy Blunt

43%     Jason Kander

3%     Jonathan Dine

7%     (VOL) Undecided

4.      If the election for governor was today, would you vote for Eric Greitens the Republican, Chris Koster the Democrat, or Cisse Spragins the Libertarian? [ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Eric Greitens or Chris Koster?]   [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

40%     Eric Greitens

51%     Chris Koster

3%     Cisse Spragins

<1%     (VOL) Other candidate

6%     (VOL) Undecided

                                                                                                              

Regardless of who you may support for president…

[ QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED ]

5.      Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

33%     Favorable

53%     Unfavorable

14%     No opinion

6.      Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?  

32%     Favorable

56%     Unfavorable

12%     No opinion

[ QUESTIONS 7 & 8 WERE ROTATED ]

7.      Do you think Donald Trump as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy?

38%     Good job

54%     Bad job

8%     (VOL) Don't know

8.      Do you think Hillary Clinton as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy?

40%     Good job

52%     Bad job

8%     (VOL) Don't know

9.      Who would do a better job handling race relations in the country - Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

34%     Donald Trump

53%     Hillary Clinton

7%     (VOL) Neither

6%     (VOL) Don't know

Turning to the Senate race…

[ QUESTIONS 10 & 11 WERE ROTATED ]

10.    Is your general impression of Roy Blunt favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

33%     Favorable

28%     Unfavorable

40%     No opinion

11.    Is your general impression of Jason Kander favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

29%     Favorable

9%     Unfavorable

62%     No opinion

12.    Do you approve or disapprove of the job Roy Blunt is doing as U.S. senator?

45%     Approve

35%     Disapprove

20%     (VOL) No opinion

           

Turning to the governor's race…

[ QUESTIONS 13 & 14 WERE ROTATED ]

13.    Is your general impression of Eric Greitens favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?

30%     Favorable

15%     Unfavorable

55%     No opinion

14.    Is your general impression of Chris Koster favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?

37%     Favorable

14%     Unfavorable

49%     No opinion

15.    Who would do a better job handling race relations in Missouri -   Eric Greitens or Chris Koster? [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

26%     Eric Greitens

37%     Chris Koster

5%     (VOL) Neither

32%     (VOL) Don't know                                                               

   

METHODOLOGY  

The Monmouth University Poll  was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 19 to 22, 2016 with a random sample of 401 likely Missouri voters.  Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 351 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and voting history based on voter list and U.S. Census information.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.  

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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