{"id":40802245779,"date":"2020-03-04T14:35:13","date_gmt":"2020-03-04T19:35:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?p=40802245779"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:03","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:03","slug":"theres-more-to-key-voter-groups-for-biden-and-sanders-than-meets-the-eye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2020\/03\/04\/theres-more-to-key-voter-groups-for-biden-and-sanders-than-meets-the-eye\/","title":{"rendered":"There\u2019s more to key voter groups for Biden and Sanders than meets the eye"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by Patrick Murray<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story of the 2020 primary has been that Joe Biden does well among older\nvoters, moderates, and black voters. \nBernie Sanders counts younger voters, liberals, and Latinos among his\nkey backers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have exit poll data from 16 states so far this cycle \u2013 nine won by\nBiden, six won by Sanders, and one yet to be called.  Analysis of key group support across these\nstates reveals that victory is not just a matter of which groups supported each\ncandidate, but by how much. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden was backed by just over half of voters aged 45 and older in the\nstates he has won so far, but he only managed to get 3 in 10 of this group\u2019s\nsupport in the states won by Sanders. Similarly, Biden won half the vote of\nmoderate and conservative voters where he was victorious, but only one-fourth\nin the states he lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Joe Biden Share of Key 2020 Primary Voter <\/strong>
Groups in States Won by \u2026<\/strong> <\/td><\/tr>
<\/td> Biden<\/strong><\/td> Sanders<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Age 45 and over <\/td> 51% <\/td> 30% <\/td><\/tr>
Moderates\/Conservatives<\/td> 50% <\/td> 27% <\/td><\/tr>
Black voters<\/td> 62% <\/td> 35% <\/td><\/tr>
White voters<\/td> 38% <\/td> 22% <\/td><\/tr>
Source: NBC News Exit Poll<\/em> <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

In the states that landed in Sanders\u2019 column, he won a clear majority\nof voters under 45 years old. That group\u2019s support dropped to less than half in\nthe states he lost to Biden. In the states Sanders won, he got the backing of 4\nin 10 liberals, but only a third of this group in states Biden won. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bernie Sanders Share of Key 2020 Primary Voter <\/strong>
Groups in States Won by \u2026<\/strong> <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n <\/td> Biden<\/strong> <\/td> Sanders<\/strong> <\/td><\/tr>
Under age 45<\/td> 44% <\/td> 56% <\/td><\/tr>
Liberals <\/td> 33% <\/td> 40% <\/td><\/tr>
Latino voters<\/td> 38% <\/td> 49% <\/td><\/tr>
White voters <\/td> 26% <\/td> 30% <\/td><\/tr>
Source: NBC News Exit Poll<\/em> <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Biden\u2019s black support has been a key factor in his surging campaign\nthis week. Biden has emerged victorious when he was able to claim the backing\nof 6 in 10 black voters on average, regardless of the share of the black\nelectorate in any given state. He lost states where his support among black\nvoters was about half that level. When Sanders was able to win about half of the\nLatino vote, he tended to win the state as well, but he lost states where his\nLatino support was less than 4 in 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While all these demographic groups have been identified as key blocs\nfor the two candidates in pre-election polls over the past year, the way white\nvoters have divided their support has also proven to be a critical factor in\nBiden\u2019s comeback.  In states he won,\nBiden tended to claim more than one-third of the white vote. His share of the\nwhite vote was about one-fifth in states he lost. The white vote has not been\nas decisive for Sanders \u2013 he has won about the same proportion of this group in\nstates he has won and states he has lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The one state that really tested these countervailing racial dynamics\nis Texas, which has significant numbers of both black and Latino voters. Biden\ngot 58 percent of the black vote in Texas, only a few points shy of his average\nblack share in the states he won. \nSanders won only 39 percent of the Latino vote there, which is on par\nwith the average margin in states he lost. The two candidates split the white\nvote (30% for Sanders and 28% for Biden), but it was the differential vote\nshares between black and Latino voters that put Biden over the top. And this\nlinkage between key group vote share and outcome held even though there were\nmany more Latinos than black voters in yesterday\u2019s Democratic electorate in\nTexas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, of course, there are exceptions to these overall trends. Biden won\nMassachusetts, for example, despite low support among the small group of black\nvoters in that state. But the overall analysis of the exit polls to date\nsuggests that the threshold of support within each candidate\u2019s key groups may be\nmore critical in determining the outcome than the share each group represents in\nany given state\u2019s electorate.  We will see\nif this trend continues in the diverse states up for grabs in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

************<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notes: Thank you to the NBC News Decision Desk for access to the exit\npoll data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden states = AL \/ MA \/ MN \/ NC\n\/ OK \/ SC \/ TN \/ TX \/ VA<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanders states = CA \/ CO \/ IA \/\nNV \/ NH \/ VT<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iowa is a Sanders state based on initial\npreference vote. Maine\u2019s winner is uncertain.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Patrick Murray The story of the 2020 primary has been that Joe Biden does well among older voters, moderates, and black voters.  Bernie Sanders counts younger voters, liberals, and Latinos among his key backers. We have exit poll data from 16 states so far this cycle \u2013 nine won by Biden, six won by […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802245779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802245779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802245779"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802245779\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802245796,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802245779\/revisions\/40802245796"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802245779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802245779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802245779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}