{"id":40802244741,"date":"2019-11-06T12:35:05","date_gmt":"2019-11-06T17:35:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?p=40802244741"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:03","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:03","slug":"new-jerseys-legislative-election-and-2020-implications","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2019\/11\/06\/new-jerseys-legislative-election-and-2020-implications\/","title":{"rendered":"New Jersey\u2019s legislative election and 2020 implications"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>By Patrick Murray<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Was New Jersey\u2019s election good news for Republicans? As you\nmay have guessed from the way I phrased that question, the answer is both yes\nand no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, let\u2019s take nothing away from the Republican\nlegislative victories.&nbsp; They held onto seats that were targeted by\nDemocrats and also knocked off Democratic incumbents in at least one district,\nall while being outspent by a lot.&nbsp; But the fact that this outcome \u2013 i.e.\nthe governor\u2019s party losing a couple of seats in a midterm \u2013 was not something\nwe were really considering before the election says something about the state\nof politics in the age of Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Republicans won by keeping their races local.\u00a0 Gov. Phil Murphy, who has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_nj_091719\/\">middling approval ratings<\/a>, was a factor, but not the major one. For example, the Democrats\u2019 vote-by-mail effort, while formidable statewide, did not materialize into a large advantage where it counted.\u00a0 And Democrats\u2019 attack ads in the 1st District seems to have backfired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taken in isolation the result was \u201cnormal\u201d for a midterm,\nbut it does seem like New Jersey Republicans overperformed and\/or state\nDemocrats underperformed when viewed in the context of what happened elsewhere\nin the country. This includes an apparent Democratic gubernatorial victory in Kentucky\nand an unusually close race in Mississippi, as well as Democrats picking up\nboth chambers of the Virginia legislature in a midterm with a sitting governor\nof the same party (who is best known nationally for wearing blackface).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep in mind, though, that New Jersey Democrats had already\npicked up a number of \u201cred\u201d seats in prior legislative elections. They had\nalready reached a saturation point in the size of their majority \u2013 unlike\nVirginia, which has only recently been trending more Democratic.&nbsp; Also,\nthe Virginia race was nationalized, whereas New Jersey\u2019s was not.&nbsp; Which\nmeans if you start digging past the superficial results, there are some factors\nin the New Jersey results that actually confirm what we saw elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, political engagement has increased in the Trump\nera.&nbsp; Yes, turnout was low in New Jersey, but it was significantly higher\nthan the last legislative midterm in 2015.&nbsp; Part of this has to do with\nthe state\u2019s new automatic vote-by-mail law, but part is a sign of the times.\nBut since New Jersey\u2019s races weren\u2019t nationalized to the extent they were in\nother states, our increase in turnout was not as high as elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, Trump Republicans did well in Trump areas (see LD1\nand LD2), but not in moderate Republican areas. This is similar to what we saw\nin the other states\u2019 voting yesterday.&nbsp; In New Jersey, Republican\nincumbents were able localize their races by reclaiming the party brand from\nthe president (at least temporarily), while Trump-aligned independents did\nlittle damage to the GOP ticket in LD21 and LD8.&nbsp; Democrats in the other\nstates did better because those races had higher stakes that spurred turnout\namong Democrats in suburban areas.&nbsp; This was not the case in New Jersey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What this tells me about 2020 is that Jeff Van Drew could\nhave a tough reelection bid in CD2 \u2013 even with the attempt to inoculate himself\nby voting against the impeachment inquiry.&nbsp; Those types of calculations\nrarely help if the political environment is against you (cf. John Adler and his\nACA vote). Yesterday\u2019s results also means that Andy Kim will need an even\ngreater suburban turnout in the Burlington portion of CD3 to offset Trump\u2019s\nstrength in the Ocean County portion.&nbsp; On the other hand, Mikie Sherrill\n(CD11) and Tom Malinowski (CD7) probably can count on stronger Democrat turnout\nin their districts next year.&nbsp; Results in hotly contested local races\n(such as the strong Democratic performance in Somerset County) seem to support\nthe idea that there is Democratic vote to be tapped that wasn\u2019t this year in districts\nwith popular moderate Republican state legislators.&nbsp; This is not to say\nthat anything is guaranteed, just that the evidence does not support one can\ncount on a return to Republican voting patterns in those suburbs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the end, it is not the night New Jersey Democrats wanted\nand the state Republican Party got a reprieve from the ever-present death\nwatch.&nbsp; But the results also suggest that in a national context, Democrats\nwill continue to do well in the suburbs while Republican success may be limited\nto the most Trump-friendly parts of the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What does this mean for Phil Murphy?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The governor and first lady, Tammy Murphy, made a mad\nscramble to hit as many parts of the state as possible in the last days of the\nrace. This was a smart move with little downside for him \u2013 even though most of\nthe candidates they were stumping for would have preferred to use that time on\nlast minute GOTV efforts rather than gubernatorial photo ops.&nbsp; While\nMurphy\u2019s direct impact on the outcome was limited, if there had been an upset\nhe could have claimed credit for the victory.&nbsp; On the other hand, in the\nworst case legislative scenario for Democrats (which is what actually\nhappened), he would have been blamed regardless of whether he went on the\ncampaign trail or not.&nbsp;&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Republicans aren\u2019t the only ones who will be calling this \u201cthe Murphy midterm.\u201d You can expect the South Jersey wing of the Democratic Party to start saying that as well.&nbsp;[Although Murphy can counter this with the fact that the only Dem losses were in South Jersey.] All this is a lead-up to the big prize in January \u2013 i.e. who will head the state Democratic Party.&nbsp; The anti-Murphy Democrats will attempt to use these results to rally committee members to oust the sitting chairman John Currie as ineffective.&nbsp; This is one of the reasons why Murphy ended his Election Day in Somerville.&nbsp; The Democratic bright spot was success at the county and local level.&nbsp; The support of these leaders \u2013 particularly key players like Somerset County Democratic Chairwoman, and state vice chair, Peg Schaffer \u2013 will be crucial to Murphy keeping Currie in his position.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Patrick Murray Was New Jersey\u2019s election good news for Republicans? As you may have guessed from the way I phrased that question, the answer is both yes and no. First, let\u2019s take nothing away from the Republican legislative victories.&nbsp; They held onto seats that were targeted by Democrats and also knocked off Democratic incumbents [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802244741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802244741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802244741"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802244741\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244750,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802244741\/revisions\/40802244750"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802244741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802244741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802244741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}