{"id":40802236374,"date":"2008-05-01T16:37:00","date_gmt":"2008-05-01T20:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2008\/05\/01\/corzine-job-approval-a-tale-of-two-offices\/"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:08","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:08","slug":"corzine-job-approval-a-tale-of-two-offices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2008\/05\/01\/corzine-job-approval-a-tale-of-two-offices\/","title":{"rendered":"Corzine Job Approval: A Tale of Two Offices"},"content":{"rendered":"

About two months ago, I was part of a group from Leadership New Jersey that had the opportunity to meet with Governor Corzine\u2019s chief-of-staff, Brad Abelow. Inevitably, the conversation turned to the governor\u2019s highly unpopular fiscal restructuring plan and state budget proposal.<\/p>\n

The Chief said that the governor has taken unpopular positions in the past and stood by them regardless of what happened to his poll ratings. Fair enough. But then Abelow said something curious \u2013 well, curious to a pollster. He asserted (and I\u2019m paraphrasing a bit) that the all-time biggest drop in Jon Corzine\u2019s job approval came during his U.S. Senate term, after he voted against authorizing the use of force in Iraq.<\/p>\n

I didn\u2019t have Corzine\u2019s senate career ratings memorized, but given recent events in his gubernatorial career, I was sure that wasn\u2019t right. So, in our never-ending pursuit of the \u201cReal Numbers,\u201d I looked it up. Any way you slice it, the movement in Senator Corzine\u2019s voter approval is nothing compared to what\u2019s happened to Governor Corzine\u2019s ratings this year.<\/p>\n

According to the latest Monmouth University\/Gannett New Jersey Poll (April 30, 2008)<\/a>, Governor Corzine has an upside down job rating among New Jersey registered voters \u2013 36% approve to 53% disapprove. [Note: I\u2019m using registered voters as the base in this analysis so the trend is consistent across polls.]<\/em><\/p>\n

Corzine ended 2007 with a +3 net rating, or 46% approve to 43% disapprove according to the Quinnipiac Poll (see tables below for full trend). That dropped to a net \u20134 rating in the Monmouth\/Gannett poll released January 16, 2008 \u2013 the week after he announced his toll road\/fiscal restructuring plan. The governor then embarked on a series of town hall meetings to sell the plan, but by late February his ratings had dropped even further to a net \u201315. [An interesting side note: While the governor\u2019s job rating declined during this period, opinion on the toll road plan itself did not budge (for details<\/em><\/a>).] And two weeks after the governor announced his austere budget proposal, his approval dipped even further to a net \u201321.<\/p>\n

In sum, from December 2007 to March 2008, Governor Corzine\u2019s net job rating dropped a full 24 points. Specifically, his job approval declined from 46% to 34%, while his job disapproval increased from 43% to 55%.<\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s turn to Brad Abelow\u2019s assertion. Senator Jon Corzine\u2019s job rating in September 2002, the month prior to his vote against the Iraq war resolution, was 47% approve to 19% disapprove \u2013 or a net +28 job rating (courtesy of Quinnipiac). This is fairly consistent with his job rating throughout 2002.<\/p>\n

Senator Corzine\u2019s job approval in December 2002 \u2013 his first public poll rating after the war vote \u2013 was a net +25 rating (47% approve to 22% disapprove), a nearly negligible change. To be fair to the governor\u2019s chief-of-staff, though, we should look to the time of the actual conflict. After the Iraq war commenced in March 2003, Jon Corzine\u2019s approval rating did indeed decline \u2013 to a net +17 (46% to 29%). It bottomed out at 44% to 30% in June (and again in November) of that year, before his approvals climbed into the 50s by August 2004.<\/p>\n

Jon Corzine\u2019s job rating as senator dropped 14 net points from September 2002 to June 2003. It\u2019s also worth noting that President Bush\u2019s net job rating among New Jersey voters (again, courtesy Quinnipiac) also declined by a similar 15 points during the exact same period \u2013 from +34 in September (64% to 30%) to +19 in June (58% to 39%). So, it\u2019s not really clear whether it was specifically Corzine\u2019s vote against the Iraq war or a general reaction against Washington that was responsible for the decline in his senatorial job rating.<\/p>\n

In any event, Senator Corzine\u2019s job approval never dropped below 44% and his disapproval never topped 30%. This is a far cry from where Governor Corzine\u2019s job approval stands today, with a clear majority of voters who disapprove and a net rating that is now 20 points lower than it was at the start of the year.<\/p>\n

What are the possible implications in today\u2019s political climate? Well, if Congressman Rob Andrews thinks calling for change is a good primary strategy against a U.S. Senator with a +17 net job rating (48% approve to 31% disapprove of Frank Lautenberg\u2019s performance), imagine how that change message may play out against a gubernatorial incumbent with a net \u201317 job rating.<\/p>\n

Governor Corzine Job Approval<\/strong> (among registered voters)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\nApprove<\/th>\nDisapprove<\/th>\nN\/A<\/th>\nNet Approval<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 4\/30\/08 *<\/td>\n36%<\/td>\n53%<\/td>\n11%<\/td>\n-17<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 3\/9\/08 *<\/td>\n34%<\/td>\n55%<\/td>\n11%<\/td>\n-21<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2\/26\/08: Announces budget proposal<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 2\/20\/08 **<\/td>\n37%<\/td>\n52%<\/td>\n12%<\/td>\n-15<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1\/12\/08 to 2\/11\/08: Holds town hall meetings<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 1\/16\/08 *<\/td>\n42%<\/td>\n46%<\/td>\n12%<\/td>\n-4<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1\/8\/08: Announces fiscal restructuring plan<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 12\/11\/07 **<\/td>\n46%<\/td>\n43%<\/td>\n11%<\/td>\n+3<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 10\/7\/07 *<\/td>\n47%<\/td>\n34%<\/td>\n19%<\/td>\n+13<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 9\/25\/07 **<\/td>\n49%<\/td>\n40%<\/td>\n11%<\/td>\n+9<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 7\/22\/07 *<\/td>\n46%<\/td>\n36%<\/td>\n17%<\/td>\n+10<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 7\/9\/07 **<\/td>\n48%<\/td>\n39%<\/td>\n13%<\/td>\n+9<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 4\/19\/07 *<\/td>\n52%<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n17%<\/td>\n+22<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 4\/18\/07 *<\/td>\n51%<\/td>\n36%<\/td>\n13%<\/td>\n+15<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4\/12\/07: Auto accident<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 2\/28\/07 **<\/td>\n50%<\/td>\n34%<\/td>\n16%<\/td>\n+16<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2\/19\/07: Announces state worker contract<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 2\/18\/07 *<\/td>\n44%<\/td>\n36%<\/td>\n20%<\/td>\n+8<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 1\/24\/07 **<\/td>\n42%<\/td>\n42%<\/td>\n16%<\/td>\n+0<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Source: * Monmouth\/Gannett; \u00a0** Quinnipiac<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Senator Corzine Job Approval<\/strong> (among registered voters)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\nApprove<\/th>\nDisapprove<\/th>\nN\/A<\/th>\nNet Approval<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 11\/12\/03<\/td>\n44%<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n26%<\/td>\n+14<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 9\/24\/03<\/td>\n48%<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n22%<\/td>\n+18<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 6\/18\/03<\/td>\n44%<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n26%<\/td>\n+14<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 4\/2\/03<\/td>\n46%<\/td>\n29%<\/td>\n25%<\/td>\n+17<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
March 2003: Iraq war starts<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 1\/29\/03<\/td>\n47%<\/td>\n23%<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n+24<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 12\/11\/02<\/td>\n47%<\/td>\n22%<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n+25<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 2002: Iraq war resolution vote<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 9\/12\/02<\/td>\n47%<\/td>\n19%<\/td>\n33%<\/td>\n+28<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 8\/8\/02<\/td>\n49%<\/td>\n19%<\/td>\n31%<\/td>\n+30<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 4\/24\/02<\/td>\n48%<\/td>\n20%<\/td>\n32%<\/td>\n+28<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 1\/30\/02<\/td>\n51%<\/td>\n15%<\/td>\n33%<\/td>\n+36<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Source: all from Quinnipiac Poll<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

About two months ago, I was part of a group from Leadership New Jersey that had the opportunity to meet with Governor Corzine\u2019s chief-of-staff, Brad Abelow. Inevitably, the conversation turned to the governor\u2019s highly unpopular fiscal restructuring plan and state budget proposal. The Chief said that the governor has taken unpopular positions in the past […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802236374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802236374"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236374\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244563,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236374\/revisions\/40802244563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802236374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802236374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802236374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}