\nIt seems our governor has a personal story and he finally wants to tell it. He grew up working on a farm and spent time in the Marines. Also, thoughts of his children and grandchildren and the love of a good woman pulled him though a near-fatal car accident. And importantly, he was fired up on Tuesday \u2013 like he really wants<\/em> to win another term.<\/p>\n
2. Yo! Chris Christie\u2019s a Jersey guy<\/strong> 3. The CWA has no fear (and perhaps no shame)<\/strong> 4. Chris Daggett could make things interesting<\/strong> 5. Steve Lonegan wants to be a real player in state politics<\/strong> 6. The GOP LG pick could be a hot potato<\/strong> 7. \u201cIt\u2019s the economy, stupid!\u201d<\/strong> 9. Good Call from the Obama Playbook<\/strong> 10. Bad Call from the Obama Playbook<\/strong> 11. \u201cA man without a plan is not a man \u2013 Thomas Jefferson.\u201d<\/strong> 12. NJ could save money by holding GOP primaries in only five counties<\/strong>
\nWho cares if Corzine grew up on a farm in Illinois. The GOP\u2019s got a guy who grew up on the hardscrabble streets of Livingston. And has a bigger Springsteen CD collection (which he’ll be playing at every campaign stop between now and November 3).<\/p>\n
\nWe learned from a Star-Ledger report that Corzine\u2019s big event with Vice President Joe Biden was almost derailed by the threat of a picket line by the state workers union. Is the CWA in danger of overplaying its hand? Probably not. We released a poll last month<\/a> that showed most New Jersey voters side with them on furloughs and, more importantly, they were not aware of the tactics being used by the CWA to avoid concessions.<\/p>\n
\nNo one expects him to win, but he\u2019s a straight-shooter. Based on his interview with NJN Tuesday night, he could make the debates uncomfortable for both Corzine and Christie.<\/p>\n
\nHis gracious concession speech and bearing throughout the campaign indicates that he enjoyed being taken seriously by both the media and members of his own party.<\/p>\n
\nLonegan\u2019s \u201cline in the sand\u201d comment (i.e. he will work to make sure Christie sticks to \u201cRepublican principles\u201d) could be something that hard-core conservatives use to lobby on the Lieutenant Governor slot. Does Christie select a pick to help him (or more accurately, not hurt him) get the 200,000 or so undecided independent voters he needs to win this race? Or does he appease the 30,000-40,000 conservative voters who might sit this race out if he doesn\u2019t choose a true believer as number two? You do the math.<\/p>\n
\nNo, that\u2019s not coming from the Christie camp. It\u2019s the message of Corzine supporters (it\u2019s clearly on their Talking Points memo). Specifically, they claim that Jon Corzine\u2019s poor approval ratings are simply a byproduct of the tough choices he\u2019s had to make during this economic downturn. And given voters\u2019 short memories, that just might work. However, as the chart below illustrates, Corzine\u2019s job approval dropped well before the Dow Jones did. [\u201cPay no attention to that toll hike plan behind the curtain.\u201d]<\/em> Perhaps Corzine\u2019s job approval rating is a leading indicator for the economy?<\/p>\n![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2009\/06\/Corzine_v_Dow-1024x792.jpg\" "\\"NJ")
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\n8. Yes, we can … bring up Obama as much as possible!<\/strong>
\nPop quiz: Who is the only political figure of either party, state or national, who holds a 60% approval rating among New Jersey\u2019s independent voters? Look at the chart above again. See that spike in Corzine’s rating that occurs between November 2008 and the presidential inauguration in January? It’s not a coincidence.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cBushwacked!\u201d That\u2019s what Governor Corzine said would happen to the state if the Republicans were in power here like they were in DC for much of the past decade. Yeah, I know Bush is out of office, but he\u2019s an effective avatar to hang around Christie\u2019s neck (How\u2019s that for a mixed metaphor?<\/em>). The Bush presidency still resonates with voters as emblematic of \u201cfailure\u201d and \u201cpartisanship.\u201d And, unlike Christie\u2019s attempt to tie Corzine to McGreevey, there are tangible connections between the GOP nominee and the former president. We\u2019ll be hearing more (and more and more) about this.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cChange!\u201d According to the GOP standard bearer, the 2009 gubernatorial election in New Jersey is all about change \u2013 just like the 2008 presidential contest. Wrong! American voters tired of the Republican regime in DC because they saw the national party as partisan ideologues who were not looking out for the nation\u2019s best interest. So it was worth giving Democrats a shot. Here in New Jersey? The voters see it more as a choice between Republocrat<\/em> or Demican<\/em> \u2013 both parties are equally to blame for the mess in Trenton, so what\u2019s the point of choosing between the two. Significantly, of the 80 Assembly seats up for grabs in November, it looks like only 2 (!!!!) have any shot of switching parties. So change for change\u2019s sake is not a message that will resonate in New Jersey.<\/p>\n
\nJefferson really didn\u2019t say that \u2013 It was one of numerous false quotes uttered by Al Pacino\u2019s character in the Dick Tracy<\/em> movie. However, it\u2019s apt here. By all rights, Steve Lonegan should have earned about 100,000-110,000 votes as the conservative standard bearer. He got 140,000. That\u2019s because he offered a specific plan \u2013 the flat tax. Christie did a good job shooting that down (i.e. that it would raise taxes on most families), but Lonegan did as well as he did in this race because he offered a clear policy proposal on an issue voters cared about. An important lesson lies therein\u2026<\/p>\n
\nOn Monday, I posted<\/a> that the cumulative vote total in just five counties \u2013 Bergen, Morris, Burlington, Monmouth, and Ocean \u2013 has been an uncanny predictor of the statewide vote. The same was true this year \u2013 Christie beat Lonegan by 56% to 41% in these five counties, nearly identical to his 55% to 42% margin statewide.<\/p>\n