It\u2019s time to clear up some confusion about unaffiliated and independent voters. If you are a member of the media who reports on New Jersey election polls or turnout, you should read this.<\/p>\n
Party Registration is Not the Same as Party Identification<\/strong> How I can put this? Um. They are not.<\/p>\n I\u2019ve written about this before<\/a>, but it obviously bears repeating. When polls refer to party identification, they are talking about how voters consider themselves politically (e.g. \u201cRegardless of how you will vote, do you usually think of yourself as\u2026\u201d). In many states, that aligns pretty well with how voters are registered. But not so much in New Jersey.<\/p>\n [A Suffolk University poll out this morning appears to have weighted party ID to party registration, a common mistake by pollsters unfamiliar with the New Jersey electorate.]<\/p>\n Being \u201cunaffiliated\u201d in one\u2019s registration is not the same as being \u201cindependent\u201d in one\u2019s thinking. We consistently find that at least 1-in-5 unaffiliated New Jersey voters actually see themselves as partisan.<\/p>\n This is a byproduct of New Jersey\u2019s semi-open primary system. Why bother registering with a party if you can wait until primary day and do it on the spot? And why bother to vote in primaries if they are rarely competitive? So, New Jersey ends up with a lot of \u201cparty-line\u201d voters who never bother to register with their preferred party. They just see no need.<\/p>\n This is the major reason why the unaffiliated proportion on the voter registration rolls suddenly plummeted from 58% to 45% in just one day. When was that? The presidential primary in February 2008.<\/p>\n
\nAt this time of year, many reporters, pundits, and other commentators talk about the importance of the independent vote in New Jersey by stating something along the lines of: \u201cAt 46% of all registered New Jersey voters, unaffiliated voters outnumber both Democrats and Republicans.\u201d And then go on to describe how the \u201cindependent vote\u201d breaks down in the polls, as if these two groups are the same.<\/p>\n