{"id":40802236182,"date":"2010-07-29T14:16:00","date_gmt":"2010-07-29T18:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2010\/07\/29\/state-pension-reality-check\/"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:07","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:07","slug":"state-pension-reality-check","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2010\/07\/29\/state-pension-reality-check\/","title":{"rendered":"State Pension Reality Check"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ.<\/strong><\/i><\/p>\n

Numbers matter. Poll results, budget deficits, health statistics. Attach a number to any issue and it becomes reality. But sometimes a reality check is in order.<\/p>\n

When this year\u2019s budget was first unveiled, the administration touted the closure of a nearly $11 billion structural budget gap<\/a>. There was some debate over that claim because it involved spending that had not been appropriated for years. The front office switched gears later in the budget process and focused on the their reduction of state expenditures by $3 billion from the prior year \u2013 a widely accepted fact that is certainly worth crowing about.<\/p>\n

The grander claim of an $11 billion deficit solution continued to surface, though, driven perhaps by the national media\u2019s interest in New Jersey\u2019s Republican governor. I believe such a claim is basically \u201cuntrue,\u201d<\/a> because it implies that the structural issues contributing to this gap have been solved. They haven\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Indeed, a recent analysis by the non-partisan \u2013 and well-regarded \u2013 Office of Legislative Services estimates that next year\u2019s budget deficit could top $10 billion. They arrive at that conclusion by looking at the same \u201con-the-books\u201d programs and obligations that were used to estimate the current year\u2019s $11 billion gap. So, it was more than a little interesting when Governor Christie said the OLS numbers were \u201ccompletely fake.\u201d<\/p>\n

State treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff clarified the administration position<\/a>. He said the OLS figures were \u201cwildly inflated\u201d because they assume \u201cthat New Jersey is going to return to its spending habits of 2008 and 2009. Those spending commitments were frankly unsustainable and out of control.\u201d<\/p>\n

The treasurer added that all parties \u201cneed to come to terms with the fact that fiscal \u201911, the budget plan that we just adopted, represents a new baseline for New Jersey.\u201d Fair enough.<\/p>\n

The problem is that OLS includes those commitments in its fiscal analysis because the programs are still on the books, a fact that the treasurer implicitly conceded in a later interview<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The OLS numbers are a reality check. Those statutory obligations still exist, which the governor was asked about in his first national Sunday morning television appearance on ABC\u2019s This Week.<\/em>. Specifically, host Jake Tapper asked Governor Christie whether he wiped these programs off the books via \u201cexecutive fiat.\u201d<\/p>\n

Regarding the pensions, the governor said that he was \u201cgoing to go after current employees\u201d this fall. Ah \u2013 a new reality.<\/p>\n

It is no secret that the pension obligation will continue to grow, even after a required $500 million contribution is included in next year\u2019s budget. Furthermore, there is mounting evidence that the state will never<\/em> be able to meet its retirement obligations for current employees. [Jason Method\u2019s piece in the Asbury Park Press on this is a must read<\/strong>.]<\/p>\n

The governor has signaled that he is going to tackle this head on before the next budget. The fight is not going to be easy, but win it and the OLS deficit estimates will almost certainly come down. Until then, the numbers are anything but \u201cfake,\u201d especially to the workers who expect to receive these benefits and to the generations of taxpayers who would have to foot that bill.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ. Numbers matter. Poll results, budget deficits, health statistics. Attach a number to any issue and it becomes reality. But sometimes a reality check is in order. When this year\u2019s budget was first unveiled, the administration touted the closure of a nearly $11 billion structural budget gap. There was some debate over that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802236182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802236182"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236182\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802237619,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236182\/revisions\/40802237619"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802236182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802236182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802236182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}