{"id":40802236110,"date":"2011-06-07T12:59:00","date_gmt":"2011-06-07T16:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2011\/06\/07\/primary-day-outlook\/"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:06","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:06","slug":"primary-day-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2011\/06\/07\/primary-day-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Primary Day Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Today is primary day in New Jersey.\u00a0 Here\u2019s a rundown of the contested seats, including my picks for most intriguing match-up and likeliest upset, plus a non-legislative race worth watching.<\/p>\n

Turnout should be about 7% \u2013 somewhere between 350,000 and 370,000 voters.\u00a0 While that may seem low, consider that there is little reason for most voters to show up.\u00a0 Of the 240 legislative nominations available, only 31 challengers are running against the party organizations\u2019 picks.\u00a0 This includes just 9 Senate seats and 15 Assembly districts (excluding the Democratic challenger in the 7th<\/sup> who has withdrawn, but whose name will appear on the ballot).<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s my run-down.<\/p>\n

Most Watched Primary <\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>District 20 (D)<\/strong>
\nDemocrats for Change<\/em>, an organization affiliated with the Elizabeth School Board has fielded a full slate of challengers in the Democratic primary, Jerome Dunn for Senate and Tony Monteiro and Carlos Cedeno for Assembly.\u00a0 Some say Governor Christie is tacitly backing this challenge.\u00a0 While he may be just a teensy bit ambivalent about Senator Ray Lesniak, he\u2019d be extremely happy to see Assembly Majority Leader and former state Democratic chairman Joe Cryan go down.\u00a0 The NJEA has targeted Lesniak over his support of school vouchers, but are not going after the Assembly incumbents (Cryan and Annette Quijano).<\/p>\n

One thing that hasn\u2019t been mentioned in this race is the impact of redistricting.\u00a0 While this district remains solidly Democratic in the new map, the addition of Hillside has increased the black population of this district from 27% to 31% (the Hispanic population went from 43% to 41%).\u00a0 There are no African-Americans on the incumbent slate, while the Senate challenger is.\u00a0 The Hillside mayor has endorsed the challengers.\u00a0 While this race is competitive and well-funded on both sides, I see the incumbents staving off the challenge.<\/p>\n

Most Intriguing Matchup \u2013 District 33 (D)<\/strong>
\nHudson County and political intrigue are synonymous.\u00a0 Senator Brian Stack has long been a thorn in the side of the Hudson County Democratic Organization.\u00a0 His alliance with Governor Christie is considered to be one of the main reasons that the Republicans failed to get their legislative map during redistricting (i.e. they insisted on sending Bayonne into a district with Newark in order to protect Stack, even though tie-breaker Alan Rosenthal made it clear that he wouldn\u2019t agree to any district split by a large body of water).<\/p>\n

One Assembly seat opened up with redistricting.\u00a0 Stack and the HCDO agreed to a compromise candidate, Jersey City Police Detective Sean Connors.\u00a0 This selection was a bit of payback.\u00a0 Connors had challenged Senator Nick Sacco in the 32nd<\/sup> district in 2007, expecting Stack would support him in a challenge for the Freeholder board the following year.\u00a0 Instead, Stack decided to make peace with the HCDO and Connors was left out in the cold.<\/p>\n

Hoboken Mayor Dawn Zimmer, another pro-Christie\/anti-HCDO Democrat, now feels that she is getting the cold shoulder from the HCDO (and the intrigue is upped by a reported IT security breach at City Hall).\u00a0 She is supporting her Council colleague, Ravi Bhalla, in a one-man challenge to Connors.\u00a0 (The other candidate is incumbent Ruben Ramos, another Hobokenite.)<\/p>\n

Stack\u2019s comments about this challenge have been lukewarm \u2013 he wished Zimmer could support the ticket, but understands her decision \u2013 suggesting that he may be okay with either Connors or Bhalla as his running mate in November.\u00a0 My pick is that Connors wins.<\/p>\n

Likeliest Upset \u2013 District 27 (R)<\/strong>
\nOne of the more fascinating storylines of this year\u2019s redistricting process was what would happen to former Senate President and Governor Dick Codey.\u00a0 Early speculation was that both Democrats and Republicans would look to put him in a less friendly district.\u00a0 In the end, his district picked up a few GOP-leaning towns in Morris County, but remains a comfortable win for him in November.<\/p>\n

This explains why Republican Party leaders could not recruit a real heavy hitter to take on Codey.\u00a0 They settled on Essex Fells Councilman William Sullivan.\u00a0 However, he has a challenge from Tea Party candidate Bill Eames, who has raised a bit of money.\u00a0 While the addition of the Morris towns to this district will not hurt Codey much, they do pose a problem for the Republican organization candidate in a primary (Morris does not confer party lines on the ballot).\u00a0 Moreover, Eames has been endorsed by the North Jersey Tea Party group, who also endorsed the popular Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll in the neighboring 25th<\/sup> district.\u00a0 I\u2019m going out on a limb and picking Eames in the upset here.<\/p>\n

Bad Blood Award \u2013 District 25 (R)<\/strong>
\nSenator Tony Bucco faces a challenge from Morris Freeholder Director \u2013 and Wharton mayor \u2013 and public school teacher \u2013 William Chegwidden.\u00a0 Their feud is partly based on Bucco\u2019s decision to back his own son for an open Assembly seat in 2009 over other candidates waiting in the wings.\u00a0 Chegwidden has taken the slight to an all out challenge.\u00a0 He will lose (as will John Siercho, who is running independent of Chegwidden for an Assembly seat against incumbents Carroll and the younger Bucco).<\/p>\n

Bizzare Resume Award \u2013 District 1 (R)<\/strong>
\nA full slate of challengers is being led by Thomas Greto for Senate, joined by Peter Boyce and Paul Halley for Assembly.\u00a0 Greto ran for state legislature once before.\u00a0 But it was in Pennsylvania in 1994.\u00a0 And his campaign was cut short by his arrest and a jail term for deceptive business practices.\u00a0 According to reports, Greto also declared bankruptcy in 2008.\u00a0 He is running on a platform to \u201cget businesses going and growing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Aside from the, er, interesting resume of the senate candidate, this race is the first real test of party discipline for Cape May County GOP Chair Michael Donohue.\u00a0 [The district includes a large portion of Cumberland County as well as a few Atlantic towns, but is considered mainly a Cape May district.]\u00a0 Donahue himself ran for Assembly a few times and was unhappy with the party support in those races, so he ran a slate of Freeholder challengers in last year\u2019s primary.\u00a0 His candidates won and he subsequently took over the reins of the county party.<\/p>\n

Donahue has fielded a decent slate of candidates \u2013 former municipal judge David DeWeese for Senate, Cumberland County Freeholder Sam Fiocchi and Stone Harbor Mayor Suzanne Walters for Assembly \u2013 although they have yet to raise any significant money.\u00a0 He is looking for a big win in this primary to cement his leadership.\u00a0 But since this tends to be one of those politically interesting pockets of New Jersey, it\u2019s not clear how big a win it will be<\/p>\n

Other contested races:<\/strong><\/p>\n

District 2 (D)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Perennial candidate Gary Stein (governor, Congress) will lose to party-endorsed Alisa Cooper and Damon Tyner.<\/p>\n

District 5 (R)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 On the Senate side former Camden city administrator Keith Walker has the line against George Gallenthin, whose business property was recently the subject of an eminent domain attempt.\u00a0 On the Assembly side, William Levins and Ari Ford have the line against perennial off-the-liner Donna Ward.\u00a0 The party-endorsed candidates should win easily, but no one really cares since this is Norcross territory come November.<\/p>\n

District 7 (R)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Senator Diane Allen faces a familiar challenger from the right, Carole Lokan-Moore.\u00a0 Allen beat Moore 83% to 17% in the 2003 primary.\u00a0 Take the over at 60 points this time around.<\/p>\n

District 14 (R)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Robbinsville Mayor Dave fried and former Cranbury Mayor Wayne Wittman will see off a challenge from jewelry store owner Bruce MacDonald.<\/p>\n

District 16 (R)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 There are no challenges here.\u00a0 But since incumbent Denise Coyle pulled out of the race without setting up a Committee for Vacancies, the party finds itself short a candidate in this GOP stronghold.\u00a0 They are asking Republican voters to write in Somerset Freeholder Jack Ciattarelli (not an easy thing to do, since I just had to look up the spelling of his last name myself).<\/p>\n

District 27 (D)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Former Millburn Councilwoman Ellen Steinberg is running off the line for Assembly.\u00a0 Millburn used to be in the GOP-lock 21st<\/sup> district, where Steinberg ran on the line for Senate in 2001 and successfully off the line for Assembly in 2003.\u00a0 She will not be able to repeat history against incumbents John McKeon and Mila Jasey.<\/p>\n

District 28 (D)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Incumbents Cleopatra Tucker and Ralph Caputo (who moved hometowns after redistricting in order to stay in the Assembly) should easily see off a challenge by Michael Frazzano.<\/p>\n

District 31 (D)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Senator Sandra Bolden Cunningham will see off restaurateur Bruce Alston<\/p>\n

District 32 (D)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Nick Sacco easily defeats 9\/11 conspiracist and perennial candidate Jeff Boss for Senate, while mortgage broker Francisco Torres fails in his Assembly challenge.<\/p>\n

District 35 (D)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Redistricting opened up two Assembly seats in this Democratic-lock district.\u00a0 The party nods went to Paterson Councilman Benjie Wimberly and Shavonda Sumter, who ran Jeff Jones successful bid to unseat two-term mayor Joey Torres last year.\u00a0 Torres brother, Samuel, is hoping to exact some revenge in an off the line challenge.\u00a0 He won\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Districts 34\/35\/38\/40 (R)<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 I\u2019ve lumped these districts together.\u00a0 GOP Strong<\/em>, a Passaic based dissident organization, is running Assembly slates in these four districts along with a Senate candidate in the 38th<\/sup>.\u00a0 This feud goes back to 2006, when now-Assemblyman Scott Rumana (R-40) wrested control of the scandal-plagued Passaic County GOP from allies of former chair Peter Murphy.\u00a0 The grudge continues to this day.\u00a0 The 38th<\/sup> race also features a perennial candidate Wojciech Siemaszkiewicz (who, fortunately, is not a write-in).\u00a0 In all four districts, the party line candidates will win.<\/p>\n

Non-Legislative Race to Watch \u2013 <\/strong>Gloucester County Freeholder (R)<\/strong>
\nThe Republicans have made some noise recently in Gloucester County, considered to be under the political control of the Camden County\/Norcross Democratic machine.\u00a0 The biggest surprise was Governor Christie\u2019s win here in 2009.\u00a0 This was followed by a gain of two Freeholder seats in 2010, after what had been a decade of total Democratic control.\u00a0 However, the county GOP has had some problems with discipline.\u00a0 Their picks for the 3rd<\/sup> legislative district in 2009 lost to two Tea Party candidates in the primary.\u00a0 The party basically disowned one, Lee Lucas, due to extreme views.\u00a0 The other, Bob Villare, is the organization endorsed candidate this time around.<\/p>\n

In this year\u2019s freeholder race, there is a very competitive primary which is a proxy battle for party leadership.\u00a0 Incumbent Assemblyman Domenick DiCicco has sided with the dissident faction against county chair Bill Fey\u2019s slate.\u00a0\u00a0 DiCicco scored a surprise victory in 2009 on Christie\u2019s coattails, but faces an uphill battle to retain his seat due to redistricting.\u00a0 Could he be positioning himself for a post-legislative position?\u00a0 And is the Gloucester GOP in resurgence or was 2009\/2010 just a blip?\u00a0 This one bears watching.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ Today is primary day in New Jersey.\u00a0 Here\u2019s a rundown of the contested seats, including my picks for most intriguing match-up and likeliest upset, plus a non-legislative race worth watching. Turnout should be about 7% \u2013 somewhere between 350,000 and 370,000 voters.\u00a0 While that may seem low, consider that there is little […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802236110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802236110"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244264,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236110\/revisions\/40802244264"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802236110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802236110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802236110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}