{"id":40802236071,"date":"2011-11-01T14:19:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-01T18:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2011\/11\/01\/new-jersey-legislative-forecast\/"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:06","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:06","slug":"new-jersey-legislative-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2011\/11\/01\/new-jersey-legislative-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"New Jersey Legislative Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/i><\/i><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

New Jersey goes to the polls seven days from now.<\/p>\n

Well, actually very few New Jerseyans will go to the polls seven days from now.\u00a0 Statewide registered voter turnout will fall below 30% for the first time since records have been kept. \u00a0So many seats are considered a lock that many incumbents won\u2019t even demonstrate a minimal level of respect for voters by answering the media\u2019s candidate questionnaires.<\/p>\n

Considering how irrelevant voters are to the process I have decided to save us all the effort and announce the winning margins for all 120 legislative seats a week ahead of the election.<\/p>\n

But seriously folks\u2026 \u00a0The following is an analysis of where the races stand based on prior voting patterns and developments during this fall\u2019s campaign.\u00a0 It is very similar to the town-based district partisan advantage I published shortly after the new legislative map was announced in April<\/a>.<\/p>\n

On the Senate side, 15 seats will likely be won by more than 30 point margins (10 Democrat and 5 Republican).\u00a0 Look for the Hudson County seats to top 60 point margins.\u00a0 Another 9 seats (2D\/7R) will be won by 21 to 30 point margins; 11 districts (8D\/3R) by 13 to 20 point margins, and 2 districts (1D\/1R) by 8 to 12 point margins.\u00a0 The remaining 3 seats should be won by Dems in 2 to 7 point margins.\u00a0 [See below for specific district breakdowns.]<\/em><\/p>\n

For the Assembly calculation, I added the total votes for each party\u2019s candidates to determine the margin.\u00a0 This does not take into account potential differences in votes for individual candidates of the same party.\u00a0 While some individual victories may be close, I am not forecasting any split party Assembly delegations.<\/p>\n

On the Assembly side, 12 districts (9 Democrat and 3 Republican) will be won more than 30 point margins.\u00a0 Another 9 districts (1D\/8R) will be won by 21 to 30 point margins; 8 districts (6D\/2R) by 13 to 20 point margins, and 6 districts (4D\/2R) by 8 to 12 point margins.\u00a0 Democrats should win another 4 districts by 2 to 7 points and Republicans one district by the same margin. [See below for specific district breakdowns.]<\/em><\/p>\n

As such, I see the Senate staying steady at a 24 to 16 Democrat edge, and the Democrats picking up one seat in the Assembly for a 48 to 32 seat advantage,<\/p>\n

This forecast is based largely on past behavior and the incumbent protection constraints of the current legislative map.\u00a0 As last weekend\u2019s snowstorm proves, all forecasts should be taken with a huge grain of salt.\u00a0 However, the extent to which actual results vary from this forecast will determine bragging rights on November 8.<\/p>\n

A few districts bear special discussion.<\/p>\n

District 38<\/strong>:\u00a0 Defending Senator Bob Gordon, and his Assembly running mates, has been priority #1 for state Democrats.\u00a0 If you\u2019ve been hearing New Jersey Democratic operatives use the term \u201cTea Party\u201d with Rainman-like redundancy, this district is the reason why.\u00a0 Their strategy is to paint the GOP nominee, Bergen Freeholder John Driscoll, as out of the moderate mainstream.\u00a0 This is one place where Gov. Christie has lent his presence on the campaign trail in order to counteract those charges.<\/p>\n

The new legislative map dealt a real blow to the incumbents, slicing off half their existing voter base in the redistricting shuffle.\u00a0 The 8 lost towns accounted for more than two-thirds of the Democrats\u2019 plurality in recent elections and remained solidly Democratic during Chris Christie\u2019s 2009 victory.\u00a0 At the same time, the core towns left in the 38th<\/sup> saw their Democratic margin cut in half from 2007.\u00a0 The district\u2019s new towns gained from the 35th<\/sup> (Glen Rock and Hawthorne) and the 39th<\/sup> (Oradell, River Edge and New Milford) also voted much more Republican in the 2009 legislative races than they did in 2007. \u00a0New towns from the 37th<\/sup> district (Bergenfield, Maywood, Rochelle Park) remained firmly Democratic, although it\u2019s important to note that their state senator was running for Lieutenant Governor at the time.\u00a0 Bottom line: without Chris Christie at the top of the ticket to drive GOP turnout, the Democrats should be able to hold onto all three seats here.<\/p>\n

District 2<\/strong>:\u00a0 Republicans currently hold the Assembly seats, but the real battle is at the top of the ticket.\u00a0 GOP Assemblyman Vince Polistina is hoping to knock off incumbent Democratic Senator Jim Whelan.\u00a0 Democrats have a 9,000 voter registration edge here, but as past history has shown, this is not enough to ensure a D victory<\/a>.\u00a0 Whelan\u2019s prospects improved when Atlantic City mayor Lorenzo Langford ended his independent bid for the seat.\u00a0 Atlantic City returns accounted for about 40% of Whelan\u2019s plurality in 2007.<\/p>\n

The new legislative map cost this district 5 towns, with Galloway being the big prize.\u00a0 While Whelan won those towns in 2007, they voted heavily for the GOP Assembly in recent years.\u00a0 The towns added to this district (Buena, Buena Vista, Folsom, and Somers Point) are friendlier territory for Democrats.\u00a0 This has been a pretty muddy fight, with Whelan and Polistina accusing each other of feeding at the public trough.\u00a0 When races become this dirty, the attacks tend to cancel out and the status quo is maintained.\u00a0 Whelan will hold on to his Senate seat and the GOP will retain the Assembly here.<\/p>\n

District 14:<\/strong> It\u2019s probably a historic relic to keep this district in the \u201ccompetitive\u201d category.\u00a0 Voters in this district \u2013 which includes a sizable number of state government workers \u2013 are used to retail politics.\u00a0 Former GOP legislator Bill Baroni was a master of the meet-and-greet approach and handily won what should have been a solidly Democratic district throughout the past decade.\u00a0 The current Senate incumbent Linda Greenstein learned this lesson well and has spent years shaking hands to become Baroni\u2019s successor, first in the Assembly and now in the Senate.<\/p>\n

The GOP selected Richard Kanka, a man with some name recognition, to challenge Greenstein and have put some resources into this race.\u00a0 But the fact that Robbinsville Mayor Dave Fried pulled out of the Assembly race this summer is a signal that they have lowered their expectations.\u00a0 Republicans were counting on a big turnout from Fried\u2019s hometown, which the new map added to this district along with East Windsor, Hightstown and Spotswood.\u00a0 These new towns replaced South Brunswick and West Windsor, the former having been a major stronghold for Greenstein, especially when she won the 2010 special election for this seat by more than 7 points.\u00a0 This town shift made the district look more competitive on paper, but East Windsor and Robbinsville came from ultra-safe Republican districts where Democratic was depressed.\u00a0 I would expect that more \u201cD\u201d voters will now turn out in these towns and the Democratic slate will win by a margin close to the upper end of the 2 to 7 point range forecast.<\/p>\n

District 7:<\/strong>\u00a0 Republican Diane Allen has held on to the Senate seat in what has been a Democratic district by force of her own popularity.\u00a0 The Democrats have consistently won the Assembly seats.\u00a0 Redistricting has led Republicans to believe they may have an outside shot at finally picking up an Assembly seat here.<\/p>\n

This district lost Merchantville, Maple Shade, Westampton, and Mount Holly in the new map.\u00a0 But the big blow to Democrats was the loss of Pennsauken, which not only cost them voters but an incumbent Assemblyman to boot.\u00a0 These towns were replaced by five municipalities from solidly Republican districts: Bordentown City and Township, Fieldsboro, Moorestown, and Mount Laurel.\u00a0 This town shift moved what was a 5,000 vote plurality for the Democrats in 2007 to a hypothetical 1,000 vote edge.\u00a0 However, since the new towns were in uncompetitive districts, we would expect the South Jersey Democratic GOTV machine now to be hard at work in these new towns.\u00a0 Expect the Assembly Democrats to get about a 5 point win here, while Diane Allen cruises to a near 20 point victory.<\/p>\n

District 1: <\/strong>Everything about this district says it should be solidly Republican.\u00a0 And yet, Democrat Jeff Van Drew has been a winner here for the last few election cycles.\u00a0 Even when he wasn\u2019t on the ballot in 2009, District 1 voters were urged to vote for the \u201cVan Drew Team.\u201d\u00a0 And they did.<\/p>\n

The new legislative map actually handed this district some more Democrat-friendly towns in Cumberland County.\u00a0 I expect that all three Democratic incumbents will be returned to office on Tuesday.\u00a0 I included this district here though, because I think the results may be closer than expected, specifically on the Assembly side.\u00a0 Usually in New Jersey legislative elections, the two members of a party\u2019s Assembly slate get roughly the same number of votes.\u00a0 One recent poll indicated that Matt Milam is running behind fellow incumbent Nelson Albano.\u00a0 Couple this with the fact that the (fairly) new Cape May County GOP chairman is itching to score a victory, and it could be an interesting night in the southern end of the state.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also worth keeping an eye on Districts 11 and 16.\u00a0 These are considered to be safe Republican districts but they were radically redrawn in the new map so that a sizable chunk of voters are unfamiliar with the incumbents.\u00a0 The Democrats are hoping to make a statement here by challenging for at least one of the Assembly seats in each district.<\/p>\n

One of the Democratic candidates in District 11<\/strong> was endorsed by the Asbury Park Press in one of the few places where a newspaper endorsement carries some weight.\u00a0 It\u2019s also one of the few districts in the state where challengers have raised more than $100,000.<\/p>\n

District 16<\/strong> used to be an almost entirely Somerset County district.\u00a0 With the new legislative map, the majority of its residents now come from towns in Hunterdon, Mercer, and Middlesex counties.\u00a0 Still, the Republican Party stuck with its two Somerset-based incumbents and named a Somerset freeholder for the open seat.\u00a0 On the Democratic slate is a South Brunswick councilman (see District 14 above), a Hunterdon teacher, and a Somerset attorney.\u00a0 They have also hit the $100,000 mark in fundraising.<\/p>\n

And in the interest of fairness, I should mention the other district where a challenger slate reported at least $100,000 raised in their 29 day finance reports.\u00a0 That would be District 27<\/strong>.\u00a0 The GOP had hoped to challenge here but their preferred nominee was knocked off by a Tea Party backed candidate in the primary. It would add some swagger to Republicans if they could knock off Dick Codey.\u00a0 But this is Dick Codey we\u2019re talking about.\u00a0 In other words, Fuhgeddaboudit!<\/p>\n

\u00a0* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *<\/p>\n

Senate Forecast by District
\n<\/span>D >30 points:\u00a0 19, 20, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37
\nD 21-30 points:\u00a0 5, 18
\nD 13-20 points:\u00a0 3, 4, 6, 15, 17, 22, 27, 36
\nD 8-12 points: \u00a01
\nD 2-7 points:\u00a0 2, 14, 38
\nR >30 points: \u00a08, 10, 23, 24, 30
\nR 21-30 points: \u00a09, 13, 21, 25, 26, 39, 40
\nR 13-20 points:\u00a0 7, 12, 16
\nR 8-12 points:\u00a0 11<\/p>\n

Assembly Forecast by District
\n<\/span>D >30 points:\u00a0 20, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37
\nD 21-30 points:\u00a0 5
\nD 13-20 points: 6, 15, 17, 18, 19, 36
\nD 8-12 points:\u00a0 3, 4, 22, 27
\nD 2-7 points:\u00a0 1, 7, 14, 38
\nR >30 points:\u00a0 10, 24, 30
\nR 21-30 points:\u00a0 8, 9, 21, 23, 25, 26, 39, 40
\nR 13-20 points:\u00a0 12, 13
\nR 8-12 points:\u00a0 11, 16
\nR 2-7 points:\u00a0 2<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ New Jersey goes to the polls seven days from now. Well, actually very few New Jerseyans will go to the polls seven days from now.\u00a0 Statewide registered voter turnout will fall below 30% for the first time since records have been kept. \u00a0So many seats are considered a lock that many incumbents […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802236071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802236071"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236071\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802236635,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236071\/revisions\/40802236635"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802236071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802236071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802236071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}