So here we go again.\u00a0 Another New Jersey redistricting commission will sequester itself in New Brunswick\u2019s Heldrich Hotel.\u00a0 This time, Congress is up for grabs.\u00a0 What will happen?\u00a0 Who knows?\u00a0 But we can speculate.<\/p>\n
The outcome of Congressional redistricting is much harder to predict than this year\u2019s legislative process.\u00a0 For one, the New Jersey Constitution has a number of standards that limit how the legislative lines can be drawn (e.g. keeping municipalities whole), whereas it offers absolutely no guidance on the Congressional map.\u00a0 Also, this year\u2019s legislative tie-breaker, Alan Rosenthal, showed his hand early in the process, laying out a series of standards that pretty much locked him into choosing the Democratic map.\u00a0 The Congressional tie-breaker, John Farmer, has avoided making any public pronouncements of the standards he will use.<\/p>\n
The process begins with the commission\u2019s Democratic and Republican teams each presenting a map for Farmer\u2019s consideration.\u00a0 It is certain that these initial maps will show 7-5 splits, 7 districts that favor their party and 5 that favor the other party.\u00a0 Surprise, surprise!<\/p>\n
Both sides will justify their maps under the guise of partisan \u201cfairness.\u201d\u00a0 This is the principle that the distribution of Congressional districts should match the partisan inclinations of the statewide electorate.\u00a0 Of course, this also means is that none of the districts should be competitive (which is basically what happened during the 2001 process).<\/p>\n
In other words, the Democrats will argue that the state leans more Democratic, so they should have more districts.\u00a0 The Republicans will do the same for their side.\u00a0 Regardless of whose analysis is wrong or right, the fairness doctrine as a primary consideration lacks merit, because frankly it matters very little to New Jersey\u2019s influence in Congress.\u00a0 How exactly does it help the state if one extra Representative (out of 435 total) belongs to one party or the other?<\/p>\n
Indeed, it could be argued that a 6-6 split actually gives our state its best chance at having influence.\u00a0 Given the number of times control of the House has changed hands over the past few years, always having 6 members in the majority actually increases our chances of placing members high on the Congressional power list.<\/p>\n
At any rate, Dean Farmer has indicated that he may be unwilling to entertain the fairness argument as an opening salvo.\u00a0 He has publicly stated that the bulk of New Jersey voters are independent.\u00a0 To be clear, this shows a misunderstanding of New Jersey\u2019s electorate and how our lack of electoral competition discourages partisan voter registration.\u00a0\u00a0 However, I agree with what appears to be the underlying reason he has made these comments \u2013 the \u201cfairness\u201d doctrine simply should not be the primary consideration when redrawing New Jersey\u2019s Congressional districts.<\/p>\n