{"id":40802236023,"date":"2012-06-04T18:08:00","date_gmt":"2012-06-04T22:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2012\/06\/04\/nj-primary-day-outlook\/"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:05","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:05","slug":"nj-primary-day-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2012\/06\/04\/nj-primary-day-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"NJ Primary Day Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

New Jersey primary day is upon us.\u00a0 There is no significant, over-arching story here.\u00a0 Anyone who tells you otherwise is just making up things.<\/p>\n

Expect a little over 400,000 voters to show up.\u00a0 That\u2019s less than 10% of eligible voters.\u00a0 Or about 15% if you just count registered Democrats and Republicans.\u00a0 This turnout level has been typical for the past decade or so.\u00a0 [One exception: the February 2008 Presidential primary turnout of more than a third of New Jersey\u2019s electorate.]<\/p>\n

So with nothing driving a statewide narrative, let\u2019s go to the play-by-play.<\/p>\n

CD9 DEM<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bergen-Passaic Smackdown.\u00a0 Early money gave the edge to Steve Rothman because more voters in this newly-redrawn district knew him as their incumbent Congressman.\u00a0 But the tide has shifted over the past couple of weeks.\u00a0 Rothman launched an attack on Bill Pascrell\u2019s \u201cprogressive\u201d credentials.\u00a0 And then kept piling on.\u00a0 Democratic primary voters predisposed to identify with Rothman\u2019s strident ideology grew a little uneasy with his relentless assault against a fellow Democrat.\u00a0 That tinge of doubt was enough to provide Pascrell an opening.\u00a0 And he was handed the golden ticket of a Bill Clinton endorsement.\u00a0 There are only two people who could possibly sway on-the-fence Democratic primary voters and they are Presidents # 42 and 44.\u00a0 Bottom line: a photo op in the White House with the incumbent (or the endorsement of a surrogate) is no match for the full-throated support of a Democratic Party Goliath.\u00a0 Winner:\u00a0 Pascrell<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

CD10 DEM<\/strong><\/p>\n

What could have, and perhaps should have, been a wide open race to fill the seat of deceased Congressman Donald Payne ended up being an endorsement of his legacy \u2013 in the form of Donald Payne, Jr. \u2013 by most of the party faithful in Essex County.\u00a0 Most, but not all.\u00a0 Newark Councilman Ron Rice is a tenacious campaigner.\u00a0 Importantly, he claims support from the CWA and the SEIU \u2013 two unions who can be counted on to actually put feet on the street for GOTV.\u00a0 If it were just a race between these two, I might give the edge to Rice.\u00a0 However, the presence of State Senator Nia Gill (who has the line in a divided Hudson County) and Irvington Mayor Wayne Smith, along with two other candidates, will serve to split the \u201canti-legacy\u201d vote.\u00a0 Rice will take a fair share of the Newark vote and do well in the Union County portion of the district, but will come up short. Winner:\u00a0 Payne (in a close contest)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

CD6 GOP<\/strong><\/p>\n

2010 nominee Anna Little hopes lightning strikes twice and she knocks off the Monmouth County organization\u2019s preferred candidate \u2013 this time, Ernesto Cullari.\u00a0 But it just ain\u2019t gonna happen.\u00a0 It\u2019s not because the party has gotten any better at GOTV.\u00a0 Fewer than 14,000 Republicans voted in the last primary \u2013 and the only reason more will vote this year is that native son Joe Kyrillos is running for Senate.\u00a0 The bigger issue is that some of Little\u2019s key supporters have fallen out with her since the last race.\u00a0 Winner:\u00a0 Cullari<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

CD7 GOP<\/strong><\/p>\n

Conservative David Larsen is taking another crack at incumbent Leonard Lance.\u00a0 Larsen has positioned himself as a true Reagan conservative.\u00a0 Lance counters that Larsen didn\u2019t even vote in the 1980 and 1984 Presidential elections.\u00a0 Larsen fell 8,000 votes short two years ago and will do the same this time around.\u00a0 Winner:\u00a0 Lance<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Other Races<\/strong><\/p>\n

Incumbents Rob Andrews (D1), Frank LoBiondo (R2), Chris Smith (R4), Scott Garrett (R5), and Albio Sires (D8) have token opposition.\u00a0 State legislator Joe Kyrillos is facing three un-funded opponents in his bid for the GOP nomination to take on incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Menendez.\u00a0 The party line picks will win easily in all those contests.<\/p>\n

There are also battles to tilt at windmills \u2013 I mean, take on the incumbent from 3 Democrats in CD2, 3 Democrats in CD5, and 3 Republicans in CD9.\u00a0 I don\u2019t have any picks in those races, but it\u2019s worth noting that one of the candidates is running under the slogan, \u201cMy Shelter Dog\u2019s Name is Roscoe.\u201d<\/p>\n

There are also state legislative primaries in two seats.\u00a0 Assemblywoman Betty DeCroce\u00a0 (R26), who was appointed to fill her late husband\u2019s seat, faces a challenge from Anthony Pio Costa.\u00a0 DeCroce should win easily on name recognition alone.<\/p>\n

The more interesting \u2013 interesting being a relative term here \u2013 primary is in the 16th<\/sup> District.\u00a0 Democrats Marie Corfield and Sue Nemeth are battling it out to take on incumbent Assemblywoman Donna Simon, who was picked to fill the late Peter Biondi\u2019s seat when he died shortly after the 2011 election.\u00a0 Corfield \u2013 a teacher whose prior claim to fame was as the foil in one of Gov. Christie\u2019s ubiquitous You-Tube moments \u2013 ran in that prior election and made a tight race out of what was expected to be an easy Republican win.\u00a0 Princeton Councilwoman Nemeth claims to have a good ground game, but it will be difficult to overcome the fact that Corfield has the party line in 3 out of the district\u2019s 4 counties.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ New Jersey primary day is upon us.\u00a0 There is no significant, over-arching story here.\u00a0 Anyone who tells you otherwise is just making up things. Expect a little over 400,000 voters to show up.\u00a0 That\u2019s less than 10% of eligible voters.\u00a0 Or about 15% if you just count registered Democrats and Republicans.\u00a0 This turnout […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802236023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802236023"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236023\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244200,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236023\/revisions\/40802244200"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802236023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802236023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802236023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}