{"id":40802236014,"date":"2012-07-27T12:49:00","date_gmt":"2012-07-27T16:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2012\/07\/27\/random-thoughts-on-this-month-in-nj-politics\/"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:05","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:05","slug":"random-thoughts-on-this-month-in-nj-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2012\/07\/27\/random-thoughts-on-this-month-in-nj-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"Random Thoughts on this Month in NJ Politics"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Voter Enthusiasm<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

No one really thinks that Barack Obama is going to win New Jersey by the 15 point margin he commanded in 2008.\u00a0 But his current lead among registered voters \u2013 11 points in last week\u2019s Quinnipiac Poll<\/a> and 13 points in this week\u2019s Monmouth University\/Asbury Park Press Poll<\/a> suggests he might not be far from that mark.<\/p>\n

Those results are among registered voters, though.\u00a0 Among likely voters it will be closer.\u00a0 Monmouth\u2019s model has the lead narrowing to 8 points.\u00a0 Voters who cast their ballots in any given election tend to be slightly more Republican than the total registered voter pool.\u00a0 GOP voters are simply more consistent.\u00a0 This difference is usually very small in presidential elections when the vast majority of registered voters show up.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s important to keep in mind that summer polls are still subject to the whims of an unsettled electorate.\u00a0 Wide variations from poll to poll, and from registered voter samples to likely voter samples, are not unusual.\u00a0 Two recent national polls using registered voter samples showed either Barack Obama up by 6 points (NBC\/Wall Street Journal) or the race as a tie (Gallup).\u00a0 Another poll, using a likely voter sample, showed Mitt Romney ahead by 4 points (Rasmussen, which tends to be Republican-leaning).<\/p>\n

Where the summer polls are really useful is understanding the dynamics behind voter attitudes.\u00a0 A big difference between this year and 2008 is the shifting partisan enthusiasm gap.\u00a0 Four years ago, a national Gallup poll<\/a> showed that 61% of Democrats reported feeling more enthusiastic than usual about voting, while only 35% of Republicans felt the same.\u00a0 The voters in New Jersey mirrored that sentiment, with 66% of Democrats and 39% of Republicans feeling more enthusiastic.<\/p>\n

That sentiment has reversed this year.\u00a0 Gallup reports that 51% of Republicans are now more enthusiastic than usual, while only 39% of Democrats feel the same.\u00a0 \u00a0Here in New Jersey, we\u2019ve also seen a shift, with 53% of Republicans and 51% of Democrats feeling more enthused.\u00a0 While the Garden State numbers have moved, they haven\u2019t moved as far as the national numbers.\u00a0 This is why Mitt Romney will look elsewhere for a 2008 Obama state to flip into his column.<\/p>\n

Endless Summer Tax Cut Tour<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

An across-the-board tax cut was supposed to be Gov. Chris Christie\u2019s major accomplishment in his 2013 re-election bid.\u00a0 Some sort of tax cut, for which he would have received most of the credit, looked to be in the offing.\u00a0 That was until negative revenue projections gave Democrats an opening to put the kibosh on it.<\/p>\n

The governor believes that he can move recalcitrant legislators by rallying the public to his side.\u00a0 The polling indicates that he should be able to shift opinion on this.\u00a0 The question is by how much.<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s Monmouth poll found that 54% of New Jerseyans feel it is better to hold any tax cuts until revenues improve.\u00a0 Just 37% say it would be better to go ahead with a cut now.\u00a0 These numbers are slightly different from last week\u2019s Quinnipiac poll, which found 49% support for the wait-and-see approach and 43% who wanted to forge ahead.<\/p>\n

The main difference between the two polls is that Quinnipiac \u2018s poll question attached these options to the Democrats and Gov. Christie, respectively.\u00a0 The Monmouth poll question did not anchor these positions to any elected official.\u00a0 This suggests that the governor\u2019s support leads some residents to overcome their initial reluctance on moving ahead with a cut.<\/p>\n

This interpretation is supported by another Monmouth poll finding that those less tuned in to the tax cut debate are more likely to prefer the wait and see approach than those who have been keeping track of where the major players stand on the issue.<\/p>\n

The more people hear where the governor stands, the more people he can sway to his side.\u00a0 Hence, the Endless Summer Tax Cut Tour.\u00a0 The question is whether Gov. Christie can break above the 43% mark set by the Quinnipiac Poll.\u00a0 Stay tuned.<\/p>\n

Judicial Pensions<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

In addition to the tax cut, Democrats have handed Gov. Christie a few tough losses this year.\u00a0 Topping the list is the unprecedented rejection of not just one, but two, Supreme Court nominees.<\/p>\n

When the Supreme Court \u2013 or at least two justices and a fill-in \u2013 decided that increasing judges\u2019 benefits contributions is unconstitutional, I expected legislators to talk a good game but drag their heals on any real action.<\/p>\n

I have to admit my surprise that the State Senate moved so quickly to put a constitutional amendment on this November\u2019s ballot.\u00a0 Of course, the Senate resolution had already cleared committee.\u00a0 So it wasn\u2019t a heavy lift to hold the required public hearing this week \u2013 bet you missed that \u2013 and schedule a vote next week.<\/p>\n

The resolution needs to be approved next week, because the Constitutions stipulates a three month timeline for public notification. Which means the amendment needs to be printed in local newspapers by August 6.<\/p>\n

The Constitution also requires that proposed amendments \u201cshall be printed and placed on the desks of the members of each house\u201d at least 20 days before being voted upon.\u00a0 Now, here\u2019s where it gets interesting.<\/p>\n

While the resolution was placed on senators\u2019 desks on June 21st<\/sup>, there has been no such action with the companion resolution in the Assembly.\u00a0 Apparently, the legislature is able to move this through the Assembly using \u201cemergency procedures\u201d to replace the Assembly resolution with the Senate version as read.<\/p>\n

I am fully aware that the Constitution allows the legislature to suspend requirements for 2nd<\/sup> and 3rd<\/sup> readings of a resolution.\u00a0\u00a0 But I did not realize they could also suspend other Constitutional provisions pertaining to amendments.\u00a0 In other words, the legislature can deem that a \u201cvirtual reality\u201d resolution had been placed on Assembly members\u2019 desks.<\/p>\n

As one observer remarked to me, \u201cIt\u2019s the magic of Trenton.\u201d<\/p>\n

Update 7\/30 — The Legislature now reports that the Senate version of the concurrent resolution was in fact placed on Assembly members’ desks on June 21, in accordance with Assembly rule 20:1. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ Voter Enthusiasm No one really thinks that Barack Obama is going to win New Jersey by the 15 point margin he commanded in 2008.\u00a0 But his current lead among registered voters \u2013 11 points in last week\u2019s Quinnipiac Poll and 13 points in this week\u2019s Monmouth University\/Asbury Park Press Poll suggests he might […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802236014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802236014"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236014\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244143,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236014\/revisions\/40802244143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802236014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802236014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802236014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}