{"id":40802236008,"date":"2012-08-14T11:25:00","date_gmt":"2012-08-14T15:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2012\/08\/14\/paul-ryans-impact-on-undecided-voters\/"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:05","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:05","slug":"paul-ryans-impact-on-undecided-voters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2012\/08\/14\/paul-ryans-impact-on-undecided-voters\/","title":{"rendered":"Paul Ryan\u2019s Impact on Undecided Voters"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Looking at it from a number of ways, it\u2019s difficult to see how the selection of Paul Ryan as vice presidential nominee makes Mitt Romney\u2019s path to 270 Electoral College votes any easier.<\/p>\n

This has nothing to do with Congressman Ryan\u2019s qualifications to be Vice President.\u00a0 He\u2019s smart, thoughtful and policy driven.\u00a0 He clearly passes the primary hurdle:\u00a0 Can this person step in if something happens to the President.\u00a0 By that measure, Mitt Romney made a solid pick that reflects well on his decision-making ability as a potential Chief Executive \u2013 which is after all how voters really assess the meaning of the VP selection.<\/p>\n

Moreover, Paul Ryan has the potential \u2013 albeit untested \u2013 to be good on the stump.\u00a0 His personable demeanor and command of the issues should serve him well in that capacity.<\/p>\n

The primary reason for rating this pick as a net negative is how it changes the narrative in a way that likely makes it easier for Barack Obama\u2019s campaign to pick up voters who matter most.<\/p>\n

As with other recent presidential contests, this race comes down to just 20% of the potential electorate in about a dozen swing states.\u00a0 Most states are too \u201cred\u201d or \u201cblue\u201d to be in play. And even in the few competitive states, about 4-in-5 voters have already locked in their choice.<\/p>\n

Many proponents of the choice point out that Paul Ryan should play well among voters in those states.\u00a0 And I fully expect that polls from now through the Tampa convention will give Romney a bounce.\u00a0 But it\u2019s important to look past the ephemeral horse race numbers and examine the underlying dynamic on the issue that may now drive this race \u2013 namely, who is better positioned to use Medicare to their advantage.<\/p>\n

While polls show that voters tend to side with Ryan on debt reduction, past history shows that national debt and federal budget deficits take a back seat to other issues for undecided voters.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s my initial take on why the pick was made and why it may be a net negative.<\/p>\n

Some say Romney needed to energize his base.\u00a0 That\u2019s baloney.\u00a0 As the GOP primary exit polls indicated \u2013 supporters of Romney\u2019s more conservative opponents would eventually get in line.\u00a0 He might have some trouble with the Ron Paul crowd, but they lack an alternative in November.<\/p>\n

By election day, antipathy toward Obama would make the GOP electorate a sure bet to turn out.\u00a0 Furthermore, Romney\u2019s stellar fundraising numbers suggest that any lack of enthusiasm his campaign is hearing from conservative activists is out of proportion to its practical impact.<\/p>\n

Some also say a \u201cboring\u201d pick would have dragged down the ticket.\u00a0 Wrong.\u00a0 That news \u201cstory\u201d would have lasted a week.\u00a0 It would have taken a back seat by Tampa specifically because of its lack of controversy.<\/p>\n

Some say Romney needed to take control of the narrative.\u00a0 This part is true.\u00a0 But the Ryan pick doesn\u2019t do that.\u00a0 And here\u2019s where the risk lies.<\/p>\n

Up until now the election was about jobs and the economy.\u00a0 Paul Ryan charged in his first appearance as the putative nominee that Pres. Obama was able to get every item on his agenda passed in his first two years and things still didn\u2019t get better.\u00a0 The Romney campaign has not been able to focus undecided voters fully on this message.<\/p>\n

However, rather than changing the narrative, the Ryan pick actually amplifies the trajectory of the current one.<\/p>\n

To date, the Obama camp has nullified the Romney attacks by basically making a tacit admission that they haven\u2019t been successful in sparking job growth, but they have tried. The underlying message is that at least they care about it, whereas Mitt Romney is, at best out of touch and at worst contemptuous of the middle class.<\/p>\n

Mitt Romney now has to answer for the Ryan budget plan, despite his claim that he has his own plan.\u00a0 And that doesn\u2019t change the narrative, but amplifies the current one.\u00a0 The Obama line now will be:\u00a0 \u201cNot only does Romney want to kill jobs, he wants to take away your safety net too.\u201d<\/p>\n

Those attacks can be characterized as distortions and perhaps outright lies.\u00a0 But it doesn\u2019t matter when you understand what best motivates the 20% of voters up for grabs in those swing states.\u00a0 And that is fear.<\/p>\n

These are people who, for the most part, have been able to hold on to their jobs and muddle through the economic doldrums.\u00a0 But they aren\u2019t enthused about the incumbent\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n

A good number of these potential voters were Obama supporters in 2008.\u00a0 They won\u2019t vote for a Republican, but were likely to sit this one out.\u00a0 They are doing okay and don\u2019t see Romney as a threat to their current well-being.\u00a0 However, they are counting on Medicare coverage because they won\u2019t have enough money to pay for private health care when they retire.\u00a0 These are the sleeping dogs that the Ryan pick now threatens to waken.<\/p>\n

Other voters in that 20% block are typical undecided voters.\u00a0 They don\u2019t pay close attention to policy and tend to vote with their gut.\u00a0 It\u2019s much easier to make someone afraid of the unknown than the known.\u00a0 And that probably means that Florida, where the current polling average has the race at 1 or 2 point margin, is probably now off the table.<\/p>\n

On the face of it, the Ryan pick should have been a boon to voters.\u00a0 It took an esoteric debate about management style and potentially raises it to a dialogue about clearly different visions on government\u2019s role in society.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, that conversation will be drowned out by what will probably be the nastiest presidential campaign of the media age.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ Looking at it from a number of ways, it\u2019s difficult to see how the selection of Paul Ryan as vice presidential nominee makes Mitt Romney\u2019s path to 270 Electoral College votes any easier. This has nothing to do with Congressman Ryan\u2019s qualifications to be Vice President.\u00a0 He\u2019s smart, thoughtful and policy driven.\u00a0 He […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802236008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236008","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802236008"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236008\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244156,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802236008\/revisions\/40802244156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802236008"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802236008"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802236008"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}