{"id":40802235993,"date":"2013-01-09T17:02:00","date_gmt":"2013-01-09T22:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2013\/01\/09\/chris-christie-new-jersey\/"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:05","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:05","slug":"chris-christie-new-jersey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2013\/01\/09\/chris-christie-new-jersey\/","title":{"rendered":"Chris Christie = New Jersey"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The anatomy of a reelection strategy that Democrats will have a hard time countering.<\/em><\/p>\n

Gov. Christie\u2019s speech on Tuesday was one of the most unique State of the State addresses on record.\u00a0 In a year when he is up for reelection, he did not feel the need to offer one single proposal as a hook on which to campaign.\u00a0 His record over the past three years and his indispensability to the Sandy recovery effort are more than enough to earn him a second term.\u00a0 And the opinion polls support that view.<\/p>\n

First, let\u2019s look at his record.\u00a0 A number of observers \u2013 mainly Democrats \u2013 argue that Chris Christie needed Sandy to win reelection.\u00a0 The polls don\u2019t bear that out.\u00a0 Certainly, Sandy has made his case for a second term much easier, but he was in a strong position before the storm hit.<\/p>\n

This is no more evident than in public reaction to the biggest policy failure of his first term \u2013 the Legislature\u2019s refusal to give him the income tax cut he campaigned on in 2009.<\/p>\n

The governor started 2012 with a 53% job approval rating.\u00a0 In January, he proposed what was supposed to be his crowning achievement \u2013 and the main plank in his reelection campaign \u2013 a 10% income tax cut.\u00a0 His subsequent job rating<\/a> clocked in at 55%, even though 69% of state residents said that property taxes should be the higher priority.\u00a0 Just 19% wanted the focus on income taxes.<\/p>\n

It was not to be.\u00a0 By May, Christie was forced to endorse Senate Pres. Steve Sweeney\u2019s property tax credit after polls showed<\/a> that state taxpayers preferred a property tax credit to an income tax cut by a 2 to 1 margin.\u00a0 And still, the governor\u2019s job rating sailed north of 50%.<\/p>\n

By June, the property tax deal fell apart when Dems used state revenue shortfalls to put the kibosh on it.\u00a0 Christie even called a special legislative session in July to enact the plan, but the Democrats said they wouldn\u2019t act on it until the state had the money to pay for it \u2013 a sentiment which 54% of Garden State residents endorsed.\u00a0 And still the governor\u2019s approval rating stood at a solid 53%.<\/p>\n

Add to this the unprecedented defeat of not just one, but two, of his Supreme Court nominees and you would think that Gov. Christie should have been hobbled. \u00a0Instead, he wasn\u2019t even dented.\u00a0 Not even a scratch.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at it another way.\u00a0 The top two issues in the state remain jobs and property taxes, even after Hurricane Sandy. \u00a0\u00a0Neither issue has had much of an impact on Gov. Christie\u2019s public standing.<\/p>\n

The jobs situation is fairly easy to explain.\u00a0 As much as the Democrats attack Christie for the lack of a jobs stimulus package, most governors would be able to escape bearing the brunt of the blame.\u00a0 Voters tend to view the state\u2019s jobs outlook as a symptom of the national economy and mainly Washington\u2019s responsibility.<\/p>\n

The state\u2019s property tax issue is another matter.\u00a0 If anything lands on the governor\u2019s doorstep, it should be this problem.\u00a0 The state\u2019s property tax is one of the main factors driving people out of the state \u2013 or at least considering whether to leave New Jersey.\u00a0 When Christie took office, 71% of his constituents said they would be very upset if their property taxes didn\u2019t go down during his term.<\/p>\n

While the governor touts his 2% cap on property tax growth, the public is still upset that their taxes have not gone down.\u00a0 When asked to grade the governor on his handling of the issue, only 30% give him an A or a B.\u00a0 Another 31% say he only deserves a C and 32% saddle him with a D or an F.\u00a0 And in that very same poll, he still earned a 69% overall job approval rating from New Jersey voters!<\/p>\n

As I stated elsewhere, by all rights this issue should be the governor\u2019s Achille\u2019s Heel.\u00a0 But it isn\u2019t.\u00a0 When asked who is most responsible for the lack of property tax relief, 32% blame the legislature, 33% blame either their local government or school board, and just 17% blame the governor.\u00a0 This also explains why it is difficult for the legislature \u2013 which has spent nearly all of the past three years with a negative job rating \u2013 to get anything to stick to Christie.<\/p>\n

So knocking him out this November was going to be a tough proposition to begin with.\u00a0 Then along came Sandy.<\/p>\n

Gov. Christie did not need Sandy to seal his reelection prospects.\u00a0 But it certainly has made it a heckuva lot easier.\u00a0 For one, it is the main reason why Christie didn\u2019t need to even consider throwing in a minor policy proposal in his State of the State address.<\/p>\n

On Saturday Night Live<\/em>, the governor quipped that the ubiquitous fleece jacket he wore during the storm\u2019s aftermath was permanently attached to his skin.\u00a0 That was no joke.\u00a0 Metaphorically at least, that fleece is now his permanent campaign raiment.\u00a0 There is no questioning that Gov. Christie sincerely feels the impact of Sandy on his state.\u00a0 But he is also aware of its political value.<\/p>\n

Before Sandy, Gov. Christie embodied the spirit and personality of New Jersey (whether or not we were willing to admit it).\u00a0 After Sandy, he became<\/em> New Jersey personified.<\/p>\n

The governor ended his speech Tuesday by challenging the state\u2019s political class to \u201cput aside destructive politics in an election year.\u201d\u00a0 Take out the word \u201cdestructive\u201d and you have a pretty good idea of just how bold Christie\u2019s speech was. \u00a0He is daring his opponents bring politics into this election!<\/p>\n

The message is: defeating Chris Christie is the equivalent of defeating New Jersey.\u00a0 Brilliant!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ The anatomy of a reelection strategy that Democrats will have a hard time countering. Gov. Christie\u2019s speech on Tuesday was one of the most unique State of the State addresses on record.\u00a0 In a year when he is up for reelection, he did not feel the need to offer one single proposal as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802235993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802235993"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235993\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244164,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235993\/revisions\/40802244164"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802235993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802235993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802235993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}