{"id":40802235990,"date":"2013-01-30T01:05:00","date_gmt":"2013-01-30T06:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2013\/01\/30\/now-what\/"},"modified":"2021-06-04T11:07:38","modified_gmt":"2021-06-04T15:07:38","slug":"now-what","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2013\/01\/30\/now-what\/","title":{"rendered":"Now What?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The \u201cuncertainty\u201d of New Jersey\u2019s Democratic gubernatorial contest is over.\u00a0 I use quotes because this is pretty much where most people thought we would end up after Cory Booker declined to run. \u00a0State Senator Barbara Buono is the presumptive nominee with the public support of every major Democratic player in New Jersey.\u00a0 Now what?<\/p>\n

My unsolicited advice to Sen. Buono is to run a losing campaign.<\/p>\n

Before I get to that, let\u2019s review what\u2019s at stake for Garden State Democrats.\u00a0 Last year, we saw that a 20 point Democratic victory at the top of the ticket could take out Republican incumbents at the county and local level.\u00a0\u00a0 A 10, or even 15, point win probably would not have had that effect.<\/p>\n

Remember that no state Republican has broken 50% since Gov. Tom Kean\u2019s reelection landslide in 1985 (George H.W. Bush\u2019s 56% presidential showing in 1988 notwithstanding).\u00a0 Chris Christie\u2019s 3.5 percentage point win in 2009 is the best a Republican has performed statewide since then.\u00a0 Christie Whitman won by about 1 percentage point in both of her gubernatorial runs.<\/p>\n

Now, imagine that Chris Christie can win re-election by a similar 20 point spread.\u00a0 Democratic seats in the legislature and at the county and local levels would suddenly be in jeopardy.<\/p>\n

Democratic office holders could probably survive a 5 or even 10 point Christie win without breaking a sweat. That outcome looked probable before Superstorm Sandy hit.\u00a0 Now we have a whole new ball game.<\/p>\n

Down ballot races rely on a minimal showing at the top of the ticket. \u00a0Garden State voting patterns have certainly become more Democratic. \u00a0It is unlikely that Christie can replicate Tom Kean\u2019s 21 county wipeout.\u00a0 But Buono will still have to run a flawless campaign to get the margin within single digits.<\/p>\n

If it ends up a 20 point victory for Christie, then down ballot Democrats could fall like dominoes.\u00a0 This is coming from a guy\u00a0who said the legislative map locked in Democratic control<\/a>\u00a0of the legislature even before Alan Rosenthal cast the deciding vote. \u00a0But I \u2013 and every other observer of state politics \u2013 never really entertained the possibility that a Democratic gubernatorial candidate could be fighting just to reach 40% of the vote.<\/p>\n

[By the way, if you want to know how New Jersey Democrats got to this point, Steve Kornacki wrote an\u00a0insightful, if a little gushy about Dick Codey, history of the party\u2019s last 15 years.]<\/p>\n

Some Democratic leaders have been vocally supportive of Buono., while others have been tepid.\u00a0 It\u2019s the latter group that holds the power in Trenton.\u00a0 There is an outside \u2013 but very real \u2013 possibility that the Democrats could lose control of one or both chambers of the legislature.\u00a0 The real irony, though, is that the Democrats could retain control, but the South Jersey bloc could lose its power within the leadership if two or three of these legislators go down to defeat.<\/p>\n

In the event of a Christie landslide, most of the vulnerable seats will be in South Jersey.\u00a0 Not only in districts 1 and 2, but even Senate President Steve Sweeney\u2019s seat in district 3.\u00a0 His winning margin in 2011 was not overwhelming and Christie performed especially well in Gloucester County in 2009.<\/p>\n

This means that George Norcross will direct all his resources to his own backyard.\u00a0 Rather than help his party\u2019s gubernatorial nominee, he will run a 7-district localized campaign that treats the legislature as the top of the ticket.<\/p>\n

This is why Barbara Buono has to run to lose.\u00a0 Her political future depends on it.\u00a0 So here is my completely unsolicited advice.<\/p>\n

Candidates with a chance of winning have a tendency to pull their punches.\u00a0 They are afraid of offending one group of voters or another \u2013 or of hurting future political opportunities if they do lose.<\/p>\n

This penchant towards timidity can water down a candidate\u2019s message and brand.\u00a0\u00a0 In a race where voters are predisposed to go with the incumbent, this trait gets translated as a lack of leadership.<\/p>\n

If Sen. Buono tries too hard to be seen as a viable candidate \u2013 particular in order to set herself up for a future run in 2017, for instance \u2013 she is likely to fail.\u00a0 It\u2019s not as if she\u2019s a favorite of the party bosses now.\u00a0 A 10 to 15 point loss is unlikely to improve her standing on that front.<\/p>\n

The best way for Sen. Buono to make something of this quixotic effort is to treat it that way \u2013 to tilt at the political windmills.<\/p>\n

So far the Buono for Governor campaign has not set the world on fire.\u00a0\u00a0 There have been some missteps with the press.\u00a0 For example, there was a lack of press availability after Gov. Christie\u2019s State of the State address and scheduling an official campaign kick-off on Saturday \u2013 the day before the Super Bowl no less.<\/p>\n

That strategy may have worked in 1993, but this is a completely different media environment.\u00a0 Weekday radio and TV coverage is more valuable as is the Internet news feed that most people will see at the office but not on the weekend.\u00a0 The Saturday kickoff is an old-fashioned approach to the media, which also suggests a staid approach to the campaign in general.<\/p>\n

So, Sen. Buono, let \u2018er rip.\u00a0 You\u2019ve got nothing to lose \u2013 except the election of course.\u00a0 But at least it will make the campaign more interesting for those of us who have to cover it.<\/p>\n

[Disclaimer:\u00a0All\u00a0advice given with tongue firmly planted in cheek.]<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ The \u201cuncertainty\u201d of New Jersey\u2019s Democratic gubernatorial contest is over.\u00a0 I use quotes because this is pretty much where most people thought we would end up after Cory Booker declined to run. \u00a0State Senator Barbara Buono is the presumptive nominee with the public support of every major Democratic player in New Jersey.\u00a0 Now […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802235990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802235990"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235990\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802249194,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235990\/revisions\/40802249194"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802235990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802235990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802235990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}