{"id":40802235981,"date":"2013-06-04T15:57:00","date_gmt":"2013-06-04T19:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2013\/06\/04\/why-gov-christie-called-a-special-election\/"},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:05","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:05","slug":"why-gov-christie-called-a-special-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2013\/06\/04\/why-gov-christie-called-a-special-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Gov. Christie Called a Special Election"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cFor all of you who were bored with the governor\u2019s race, I have solved your problems.\u201d \u2013 Gov. Chris Christie<\/em><\/p>\n

New Jersey\u2019s U.S. Senate campaign is on!\u00a0 Every one of the alternatives Chris Christie considered to fill the vacancy posed a different set of risks and benefits.\u00a0 True to his reputation as an astute strategist, he chose the option that maximized his own future political prospects.<\/p>\n

Certainly, there will be fallout from this decision.\u00a0 National Republicans are irked that they are not guaranteed a party vote in the Senate for the next 17 months.\u00a0 They are joined by state GOP leaders in being annoyed that a Republican appointee won\u2019t have time to raise visibility and money for an incumbent campaign in 2014.<\/p>\n

Republicans wanted Christie to hold out for the 2014 option.\u00a0 But that choice posed a serious risk.\u00a0 It would most certainly have gone to the New Jersey Supreme Court.\u00a0 The court could not only have determined that the Senate election needed to be held this year but also directed that it be held on the same day as the regular general election.<\/p>\n

Despite his denials, Gov. Christie does not want to run on a ballot where the U.S. Senate race is at the top of the ticket.\u00a0 Otherwise he could have saved the state an estimated $12 million and held the special election concurrently with the general election, rather than three weeks earlier on Oct. 16.<\/p>\n

A Senate race on the same ballot would have certainly increased Democratic turnout \u2013 whether the nominee is Cory Booker or Frank Pallone \u2013 both of whom are running \u2013 or even Rush Holt or Bill Pascrell \u2013 who are considering a run.\u00a0 Voters, especially Democrats, are more likely to turn out for competitive races.\u00a0 This would almost certainly put any of the supposed five or six competitive legislative races out of Republicans\u2019 reach.<\/p>\n

Christie himself is unlikely to lose in this scenario, but he would suffer a significant loss to his presidential prospects.\u00a0 His main campaign strategy has always been to stand on the stage with a half dozen more conservative Republicans seeking their party\u2019s presidential nomination and announce: \u201cOur main priority should be to back the White House.\u00a0 Anyone on this stage who has won a blue state by 20 points, raise your hand!\u201d<\/p>\n

Winning by a 10 or 12 point margin or even \u2013 gasp \u2013 by the high single digits would be a major setback to Christie\u2019s 2016 strategy.<\/p>\n

At the end of the day, a quick special election was the one option where Christie knew he could maintain control over the process.\u00a0 The conflicting state statutes on Congressional vacancies agree that the governor has this authority.<\/p>\n

So yes, some GOP leaders and conservatives are annoyed at him right now.\u00a0 But Christie\u2019s banking this will blow over by the time the presidential process begins. Moreover, holding a special election shortly before the regularly scheduled general election may actually boost Christie\u2019s victory margin.<\/p>\n

Turnout in this special election will be very low \u2013 35% of registered voters is my rough guess.\u00a0 As a consequence, there are some voters who will only take part in one election, pushing turnout in the November general election down to about 50%.\u00a0 It usually approaches 60% during gubernatorial years.<\/p>\n

This turnout fatigue will affect partisans of both stripes.\u00a0 However, it\u2019s much more likely to affect Democratic voters than Republicans.\u00a0 Many Democrats will show up for a Senate race that looks positive for their party and sit out the subsequent general election where their party\u2019s candidate is likely to lose.<\/p>\n

This special election has an added benefit for the state GOP. It is now more likely that they could pick off some Democratic incumbents in the state legislature.\u00a0 Among all the possible alternatives, Christie\u2019s decision to hold the special election in October was absolutely the worst possible outcome for New Jersey Democrats.<\/p>\n

Yes, the Democrats will almost certainly win the U.S. Senate seat. \u00a0It\u2019s unlikely that the Republican nominee will be able to raise the kind of cash that Booker or even Pallone can.\u00a0 Moreover, Christie is unlikely to free up his GOTV resources to do double duty for the senate race.<\/p>\n

Democratic power brokers won\u2019t pour money into the senate race either.\u00a0 They really care about state and local races.\u00a0 That\u2019s where their bread is buttered.\u00a0 This special election poses a real threat to their control of at least one chamber of the legislature.\u00a0 In other words, Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr.\u2019s supposed pipe dream of taking control of the State Senate now seems much more realistic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ \u201cFor all of you who were bored with the governor\u2019s race, I have solved your problems.\u201d \u2013 Gov. Chris Christie New Jersey\u2019s U.S. Senate campaign is on!\u00a0 Every one of the alternatives Chris Christie considered to fill the vacancy posed a different set of risks and benefits.\u00a0 True to his reputation as an […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802235981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802235981"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235981\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244170,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235981\/revisions\/40802244170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802235981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802235981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802235981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}