{"id":40802235942,"date":"2014-02-24T02:09:00","date_gmt":"2014-02-24T07:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2014\/02\/24\/the-race-is-on\/"},"modified":"2021-06-04T11:09:20","modified_gmt":"2021-06-04T15:09:20","slug":"the-race-is-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2014\/02\/24\/the-race-is-on\/","title":{"rendered":"The Race is On!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It appears that I have\u00a0unilaterally announced the gubernatorial candidacies of both Senate President Steve Sweeney and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop<\/a>. \u00a0Well, somebody had to do it…<\/p>\n

But seriously, an explanation may be in order.<\/p>\n

This \u201crevelation\u201d stemmed from an\u00a0interview with the Star-Ledger\u2019s Matt Friedman on Sweeney\u2019s elevated profile in recent months<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0As I said to Matt, you can\u2019t talk about whether Sweeney is \u201cin campaign mode\u201d without considering Fulop\u2019s recent activities as well.\u00a0\u00a0Both Democrats are positioning themselves for a run at Drumthwacket.<\/p>\n

In fact, the next gubernatorial campaign kicked off almost immediately after Chris Christie\u2019s re-election in November.\u00a0 Two weeks later to be precise.<\/p>\n

At the annual League of Municipalities Convention in Atlantic City, Sweeney hosted a well-attended reception.\u00a0 That\u2019s not unusual for a legislative leader.\u00a0 The incoming Assembly Speaker, Vincent Prieto, held another well-attended event that week.<\/p>\n

What was unusual was the high profile reception hosted by the brand new mayor of Jersey City the next evening.\u00a0 The 5th<\/sup> floor of the Chelsea Hotel was jam-packed with Democratic movers and shakers jockeying to rub shoulders with a rising star. \u00a0Fulop made an unmistakable statement that night \u2013 he fully intends to be a major player in state politics.<\/p>\n

I do not doubt that Sweeney\u2019s interest in statewide issues, such as the Sandy Victim\u2019s Bill of Rights, is genuinely part of his role as New Jersey\u2019s legislative leader.\u00a0 I also believe that Fulop\u2019s active participation in the Newark mayor\u2019s race is to help foster a united front on urban issues.<\/p>\n

You cannot ignore, though, that these moves are equally about shoring up support, and supporters, in counties that will be crucial in a contested Democratic priority.\u00a0 While neither has actually declared his candidacy, both are engaging in behavior that can only be read as the intent to run if the opportunity presents itself.<\/p>\n

I have never seen this level of activity four years ahead of a scheduled election.\u00a0 The key word there being \u201cscheduled.\u201d\u00a0 There\u2019s a decent possibility that the next gubernatorial election will occur earlier than scheduled.<\/p>\n

Back in November, some observers believed that Gov. Christie may end up resigning early in order to run for president; a resignation necessitated by federal campaign funding rules.\u00a0 This would result in a special election one or even two years early.\u00a0 While Christie\u2019s presidential prospects may have dimmed, there are still some who believe the state may be facing an early election, albeit for distinctly different reasons.<\/p>\n

The bottom line is that potential candidates for New Jersey\u2019s next governor have to be prepared to run at any time.\u00a0 They cannot count on a four year timeline to undertake the groundwork for launching a campaign.<\/p>\n

Under normal circumstances, a mayor would not want to be seen as actively looking to move up the ladder after just a few months on the job.\u00a0 If Fulop followed the normal course of a rising prospect by quietly building support, though, he could be on left out in the cold when it comes time to claim county lines in an early primary.<\/p>\n

Thus, the mayor of Jersey City has decided to up the ante.\u00a0 The Newark mayor\u2019s race is as much about who will control the Essex County party during the next gubernatorial primary as it is about who will run Newark.\u00a0 It also doesn\u2019t escape notice that the candidate Fulop is hoping to defeat could be another gubernatorial contender with urban credentials to rival Fulop\u2019s if he won.<\/p>\n

If he wants to position himself for the governorship, Steve Fulop cannot afford to cede the field to Steve Sweeney.\u00a0 But this also means that the Senate President has been forced to up his game as well.<\/p>\n

One danger in an overly protracted campaign is that either or both candidates could flame out. \u00a0It\u2019s also possible that either or both candidates may choose not to run when the time comes.\u00a0 But with an uncertain horizon for the next election, both need to be ready.<\/p>\n

Some may see Steve Sweeney\u2019s current statewide tour as a gubernatorial gavotte, but in this case it takes two to tango.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at\u00a0PolitickerNJ It appears that I have\u00a0unilaterally announced the gubernatorial candidacies of both Senate President Steve Sweeney and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop. \u00a0Well, somebody had to do it… But seriously, an explanation may be in order. This \u201crevelation\u201d stemmed from an\u00a0interview with the Star-Ledger\u2019s Matt Friedman on Sweeney\u2019s elevated profile in recent months.\u00a0\u00a0As I […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802235942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235942","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802235942"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235942\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802249208,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235942\/revisions\/40802249208"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802235942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802235942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802235942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}