{"id":40802235900,"date":"2016-08-29T00:28:00","date_gmt":"2016-08-29T04:28:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:04","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:04","slug":"historical-presidential-nominee-favorability-ratings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2016\/08\/29\/historical-presidential-nominee-favorability-ratings\/","title":{"rendered":"Historical Presidential Nominee Favorability Ratings"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Monmouth University Poll<\/i> released today (http:\/\/monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/<\/a>) underscored the historically high level of negative attitudes toward both major party nominees for president.<\/p>\n

The number of voters who cannot bring themselves to voice a favorable opinion of either major party nominee is unlike anything witnessed in past elections.\u00a0 Only 2% have a favorable opinion of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump while one-third (35%) do not have a favorable opinion of either candidate.\u00a0 These results are unprecedented according to polling data going back more than 30 years.<\/p>\n

The number of voters in elections going back to 1984 who had a favorable opinion of both candidates was never lower than 5% \u2013 in fact registering as high as 19% in 2000.\u00a0 Conversely, the number of voters who did not have a favorable opinion of either nominee was never higher than 9% \u2013 a fraction of what is being seen in the current election.<\/p>\n

\"Image<\/a><\/p>\n

Among the 1-in-3 voters in the current poll who do not have a favorable opinion of either nominee, 21% say they have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, 7% have an unfavorable view of Clinton while expressing \u201cno opinion\u201d of Trump, and 8% have an unfavorable view of Trump while expressing \u201cno opinion\u201d of Clinton.\u00a0 Even taking into account differences in question wording and methodology compared to past election polls, the number of voters who hold negative views of both candidates is indisputably a record high.<\/p>\n

Monmouth combined the data from its four national polls conducted this summer to get a better sense of these disapproving voters.\u00a0 Based on this four-poll average, those with an unfavorable opinion of both nominees are dividing their support almost evenly among Trump (24%), Clinton (21%), and Johnson (22%), with Stein at 8%.\u00a0 Among those who hold a negative view of one nominee and no opinion of the other candidate, however, the vast majority are voting for the candidate of whom they have no personal opinion.\u00a0 This includes 77% of the \u201cunfavorable Clinton\/no opinion Trump\u201d group who are voting for Trump and 75% of the \u201cunfavorable Trump\/no opinion Clinton\u201d group who are voting for Clinton.<\/p>\n

This is not surprising because the vast majority of \u201cno opinion on Clinton voters\u201d lean Democrat and the vast majority of \u201cno opinion on Trump\u201d voters lean Republican. \u00a0It just seems that they can\u2019t bring themselves to admitting to a favorable opinion of the person they are grudgingly supporting.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also worth noting that there are more Republicans than Democrats among voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates and this negative group is also much more likely to be college educated.\u00a0 The demographic composition of each voter group is below.<\/p>\n

Among those who have an unfavorable opinion of Trump but no opinion of Clinton:<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>44% describe themselves as Democrats and 33% are independents who lean Democrat<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>51% are white, 21% are black, 23% are Hispanic, and 6% are Asian or other race<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>42% are under age 35, 26% are 35-49, 21% are 50-64, and 10% are 65 and older<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>41% are men and 59% are women<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>39% have a college degree<\/p>\n

Among those who have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton but no opinion of Trump:<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>45% describe themselves as Republicans and 29% are independents who lean Republican<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>84% are white, 3% are black, 7% are Hispanic, and 7% are Asian or other race<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>23% are under age 35, 18% are 35-49, 33% are 50-64, and 25% are 65 and older<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>58% are men and 42% are women<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>46% have a college degree<\/p>\n

Among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Clinton:<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>29% are Republicans and 21% lean Republican, 13% are Democrats and 20% lean Democrat, and 18% are self-described independents who do not lean toward either party.<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>80% are white, 6% are black, 10% are Hispanic, and 4% are Asian or other race<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>36% are under age 35, 24% are 35-49, 26% are 50-64, and 15% are 65 and older<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>54% are men and 46% are women<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>56% have a college degree<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also worth noting that nearly 1-in-4 of those voters who do not have a favorable opinion of either candidate are considered to be unlikely to turn out to vote this November.\u00a0 This compares to less than 1-in-10 with a favorable opinion of one of the candidates who are considered to be unlikely voters.<\/p>\n

For the record, among those who have a favorable opinion of Clinton only:<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>72% describe themselves as Democrats and 19% are independents who lean Democrat<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>58% are white, 24% are black, 12% are Hispanic, and 5% are Asian or other race<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>22% are under age 35, 26% are 35-49, 28% are 50-64, and 24% are 65 and older<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>35% are men and 65% are women<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>53% have a college degree<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>93% are voting for Clinton<\/p>\n

Among those who have a favorable opinion of Trump only:<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>62% describe themselves as Republicans and 25% are independents who lean Republican<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>89% are white, 2% are black, 7% are Hispanic, and 2% are Asian or other race<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>16% are under age 35, 27% are 35-49, 31% are 50-64, and 26% are 65 and older<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>57% are men and 43% are women<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>42% have a college degree<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>94% are voting for Trump<\/p>\n

Another historical note: the difference between the two candidates\u2019 favorability ratings correlates extremely closely with the actual margin of victory.\u00a0 For example, Barack Obama had a 6 point advantage over Mitt Romney in candidate favorability in 2012 and ended up winning the popular vote in that election by 4 points.\u00a0 Ronald Reagan had a 17 point favorability advantage over Walter Mondale in 1984 and won that election by 18 points.\u00a0 Even in the razor thin election of 2000, Al Gore had a one point favorability edge over George W. Bush and won the national popular vote by half a percentage point despite losing the Electoral College.\u00a0 The same is true in 2004 (favor +5R; vote +3R), 1996 (favor +6D; vote +8D), 1992 (favor +5D; vote +6D), and 1988 (favor +8R; vote +7R).\u00a0 According to the average of recent polls reported by HuffPost Pollster, Clinton has about a 6 point advantage on this metric.<\/p>\n

There are also intriguing down-ballot implications.\u00a0 Some pundits point to the 1996 election when the GOP tried to disconnect the Congressional races from its presidential nominee who was trailing in the polls.\u00a0 In that year, however, opinion of Bob Dole was fairly positive, with 50% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him.\u00a0 This year, the top of ticket nominees in both party are largely negative, with Trump doing significantly worse among his fellow Republicans than Clinton is doing among her fellow Democrats.\u00a0 This suggests that the GOP could have a bigger problem holding its base in down ballot races where their nominee is seen as aligned too closely with Trump.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Monmouth University Poll released today (http:\/\/monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/) underscored the historically high level of negative attitudes toward both major party nominees for president. The number of voters who cannot bring themselves to voice a favorable opinion of either major party nominee is unlike anything witnessed in past elections.\u00a0 Only 2% have a favorable opinion of both […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":40802236431,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802235900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802235900"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235900\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802237622,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235900\/revisions\/40802237622"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802236431"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802235900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802235900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802235900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}