{"id":40802235894,"date":"2016-11-02T13:22:00","date_gmt":"2016-11-02T17:22:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:04","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:04","slug":"how-is-the-recent-email-controversy-affecting-the-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2016\/11\/02\/how-is-the-recent-email-controversy-affecting-the-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"How is the Recent Email Controversy Affecting the Polls?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By Nicole Sandelier<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Monmouth University Polling Institute Graduate Assistant<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Last Friday, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to congressional leaders stating that the FBI had \u201clearned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation\u201d of Hillary Clinton\u2019s use of a personal email server.\u00a0 With Election Day right around the corner, how will the new revelation impact the presidential race?<\/p>\n<p>It is important to note that even before the recent news regarding Clinton\u2019s emails, national polls were already tightening.\u00a0 According to the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2016\/president\/us\/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Real Clear Politics 4-way national average<\/a>, Clintons\u2019 lead had been on a decline.\u00a0 On October 18<sup>th<\/sup>, Clinton led Trump 46% to 39%, and on the day that the Comey news broke, Clinton\u2019s lead had fallen to 45% to 41%.\u00a0 As of today, Clinton is hanging onto a slim 2-point lead (45% to 43%) nationally.<\/p>\n<p>Although it may still be too early to tell, as of now there are scare data suggesting the recent news regarding Clinton\u2019s emails has caused voters to rethink their vote preference. A recent national <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/the-fix\/wp\/2016\/10\/30\/post-abc-poll-finds-tight-presidential-race-with-mixed-reaction-to-fbis-review-of-clinton-e-mails\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ABC News\/ Washington Post<\/a> poll found 63% of voters nationally saying the recent news does not affect how likely they are to support Clinton. \u00a0Recent Monmouth University polls in <a href=\"http:\/\/monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/MonmouthPoll_IN_103116\/\">Indiana (Oct. 31, 2016)<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/MonmouthPoll_MO_110116\/\">Missouri (Nov. 1, 2016)<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/MonmouthPoll_PA_110216\/\">Pennsylvania (Nov. 2, 2016)<\/a> draw an even stronger conclusion. Fewer than 5% of voters in each state say Comey\u2019s letter actually caused them to change their vote choice. Since this finding includes supporters of both candidates, the net effect of Comey\u2019s letter is only a net 1 or 2 point gain for Trump. With all the coverage and talk focusing on Comey\u2019s decision to re-open the investigation, there is little evidence it has been overwhelmingly detrimental to the Clinton campaign and her standing in the polls &#8230; yet.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Nicole Sandelier Monmouth University Polling Institute Graduate Assistant Last Friday, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to congressional leaders stating that the FBI had \u201clearned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation\u201d of Hillary Clinton\u2019s use of a personal email server.\u00a0 With Election Day right around the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802235894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802235894"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235894\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802242115,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235894\/revisions\/40802242115"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802235894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802235894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802235894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}